PRIMES-TREMOVE Transport Model

The model can be used for policy formulation. Model projections include the transport demand by the transport mean, technologies and fuels, including conventional and alternative types, and their penetration in various transport market segments. It also includes details about greenhouse gases and air pollution emissions, as well as impacts on transport system costs, external costs of congestion, noise and accidents.

In the transport field, PRIMES-TREMOVE is suitable for modelling soft measures (e.g. eco-driving, deployment of Intelligent Transport Systems, labelling) economic measures (e.g. subsidies and taxes on fuels, vehicles, emissions; ETS for transport (road transport, aviation and maritime) when linked with PRIMES; pricing of congestion and other externalities such as air pollution, accidents and noise; measures supporting R&D), regulatory measures (e.g. CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars, new light commercial vehicles, heavy duty vehicles); EURO standards on road transport vehicles; technology standards for non-road transport technologies), infrastructure policies for alternative fuels (e.g. deployment of refuelling/recharging infrastructure for electricity, hydrogen, LNG, CNG). Used as a module which contributes to a broader PRIMES scenario, PRIMES-TREMOVE can show how policies and trends in the field of transport contribute to economy wide trends in energy use and emissions. Using data disaggregated per Member State, it can show differentiated trends across Member States.

The PRIMES-TREMOVE model has been used for the Impact Assessments accompanying the 2011 Transport White Paper , “Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area – Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system” (COM(2011) 144 final); for the “A European Strategy for low-emission mobility” (COM(2016) 501), for the 2050 Long-term Strategy (A Clean Planet for all - A European strategic long-term vision for a prosperous, modern, competitive and climate neutral economy; COM (2018) 773) and for many other policy documents and Impact Assessments. In 2020 and 2021, the model also provided quantitative input in various IA of the Fit for 55 policy package and in evaluation studies of existing directives (e.g. AFID) and initiatives (e.g. White Paper in transport).

PRIMES-TREMOVE can help to assess: 

Pricing

• Infrastructure charging (e.g. Eurovignette) through: 
  • Changing travel cost associated to specific infrastructures
• External costs charges (for all modes) through:
  • Changing travel costs of transport modes 
• Public funding of transport (subsidies) through:
  • Changing travel cost of bus and rail

Taxation

• Energy taxation (identify energy and CO2 component) through: Changing fuel tax values by fuel type
• Vehicle taxation Changing through: cost of new vehicles 

Regulation

• Standard - Transport safety through: 
  • Reduction of accident factors
• Regulation on CO2 from road vehicles through: 
  • Assumptions on CO2 emissions limits of new cars, light commercial vehicles and heavy goods vehicles are implemented
• Regulation on polluting emission from road vehicles (EURO standards) through:
  • Assumptions on polluting emissions limits of new cars and heavy goods vehicles are implemented
• Emissions standards for non-road modes (e.g. ICAO chapter 3 on aircraft emissions, Energy Efficiency Design Index for maritime, sulphur limits of marine fuels, etc.) through:
  • Assumptions on emissions limits of new trains/aircrafts, etc. are implemented; reduction of emissions factors for vessels
• Emissions Trading Scheme through:
  • Inclusion of aviation in EU ETS starting with 2012 – Changing transport costs of air transport; similar examples for road and maritime transport
• Fuel quality through:
  • Changing fuel cost by fuel type, fuel blends, maximum blending percentages, air pollutant emission factors
• Renewable energy directive through:
  • Mandatory fuels blending
• Clean Power for Transport andAvailability of refuelling/recharging Infrastructure through:
  • Changing parameters interpreting availability of refuelling/recharging infrastructures leading to faster penetration of alternative technologies

Note: the model contributions indicated in this section focus on the assessment for policy options. In addition, this model is extensively used for the construction of the baseline in the EU Reference Scenario. This is indicated under the ‘additional information’ section for the related impact assessments. To learn more please see the following publications:

EU reference scenario 2016. Energy, transport and GHG emissions: trends to 2050, Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2016, https://doi.org/10.2833/9127

EU Reference Scenario 2020. Energy, Transport and GHG Emissions: Trends to 2050, Publications Office, Luxembourg, 2021, https://doi.org/10.2833/35750