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Joint Research Center (JRC)
PRIMES-TREMOVE

PRIMES-TREMOVE Transport Model

TransportTransportEnergyEnvironmentClimateClimate policyAir Pollutiontransport demandGHG emissionstechnology innovationmarket outlook

Quality & Transparency

Quality

Model uncertainties

Models are by definition affected by uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?

yes
The model accounts for the various uncertainties in specific input data assumptions by carrying out scenario analysis and modifying the values on selected or a set of input data. Such are the cases related to technology cost assumptions, GDP and fuel prices evolution and a combination of those. Scenarios analysis is also carried out on policy parameters like charges, taxation, vehicle standards, etc.

    Sensitivity analysis

    Sensitivity analysis helps identifying the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for the uncertainty in the model responses. Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?

    yes
    The model has been frequently used for carrying out sensitivity analysis around specific uncertain inputs. The sensitivity analysis used in the model only considers changes in one input parameter such as fuel prices or GDP evolution.

      Have model results been published in peer-reviewed articles?

      yes
      As module of the PRIMES energy system model, PRIMES-TREMOVE has been successfully peer reviewed in 2011. See Commission staff working paper: SEC(2011)1569. The model results have been communicated to the scientific audience (see list of relevant publications below). Model results have also been reviewed as part of deliverables in H2020 research projects.

        Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?

        Please note that this does not refer to the cases when model results were validated by stakeholders.

        yes

          Model validation

          Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?

          yes
          Validation consists in comparing to officially published policy indicators and on checking continuity of time series from past to future. The model includes calibration routines, which ensure that when the model runs retrospectively it replicates statistical data. With respect to future projections, validation is more complex because it relies on economic theory and practice. Academic validation is also practiced through publications subject to external peer review and comparisons to other studies and independent publications.

            Transparency

            To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?

            This may include sources accessible upon subscription and/or payment

            Based on both publicly available and restricted-access sources

            Is the full model database as such available to external users?

            Whether or not it implies a specific procedure or a fee

            no
            Key databases upon which the model is built are publically available (e.g. EUROSTAT data on transport activity and energy balances). The technology input data, as well as other elements are fully publicly available.

              Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?

              Note this excludes IA reports.

              yes

              Have output datasets been made publicly available?

              Note this could also imply a specific procedure or a fee.

              yes
              Selected model outputs are made publicly available. Published outputs are defined by the Commission and are project-specific. Also outputs are reported in publicly available technical reports, scientific papers and research projects final reports.

                Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?

                For instance: Dashboard, interactive interfaces...

                yes

                  Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?

                  Note this excludes IA reports.

                  yes
                  These are documented in several publications in scientific journals and in the model documentation which is publicly available.

                  Is there a dedicated public website where information about the model is provided?

                  yes

                    Is the model code open-source?

                    no

                    Can the code be accessed upon request?

                    no