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Joint Research Center (JRC)
SIBYL

Vehicle Stock, Air Pollutants, and GHG Projection Policy Evaluation Tool

ClimateEnvironmentTransportEnergyroad transportemissionsscenarios

Quality & Transparency

Quality

Model uncertainties

Models are by definition affected by uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?

no
High uncertainties due to external reasons (e.g. new regulations, COVID-19, political instability) for future evolution of fuel mix are treated by having different scenarios, information from various sources and the most up-to-date statistical data for historical years

    Sensitivity analysis

    Sensitivity analysis helps identifying the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for the uncertainty in the model responses. Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?

    no
    SIBYL’s outputs are imported to COPERT and afterwards to cost assessment models and then a sensitivity analysis is performed

      Have model results been published in peer-reviewed articles?

      yes

        Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?

        Please note that this does not refer to the cases when model results were validated by stakeholders.

        yes
        It has been reviewed extensively by different European Commission experts during the Euro 7 impact assessment process.

          Model validation

          Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?

          yes
          Annual validation and comparison with results from other models

            Transparency

            To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?

            This may include sources accessible upon subscription and/or payment

            Based on both publicly available and restricted-access sources

            Is the full model database as such available to external users?

            Whether or not it implies a specific procedure or a fee

            yes
            EU reference scenario Statistical data from multiple sources Recent proposals for regulations (e.g. FF55)

            Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?

            Note this excludes IA reports.

            yes

            Have output datasets been made publicly available?

            Note this could also imply a specific procedure or a fee.

            no

              Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?

              For instance: Dashboard, interactive interfaces...

              no

                Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?

                Note this excludes IA reports.

                no

                Is there a dedicated public website where information about the model is provided?

                yes

                Is the model code open-source?

                no

                Can the code be accessed upon request?

                no