Vehicle Stock, Air Pollutants, and GHG Projection Policy Evaluation Tool

SIBYL has been envisaged as a vehicle stock projection tool with internal energy consumption, emission, and cost estimation capabilities. It allows the formation and execution of scenarios, policy assessment and target setting.

EMISIA has recently redesigned the SIBYL baseline, which is now a COPERT compatible dataset that has been extracted using the SIBYL methodology, going even beyond the limits of the well-known software tool integrating new vehicle categories. SIBYL baseline provides historical and projected vehicle fleet data, emissions, and energy consumption for the whole period 1990 – 2050.

EMISIA uses the SIBYL model for the projection of emissions from road transport. SIBYL can project emissions based on fleet dynamics, expected market trends and forecasted fleet growth scenario. With SIBYL it is possible to make fleet, activity, energy, and emissions estimations and projections up to 2050. Based on these features and by utilizing proper emission and consumption factors, SIBYL can project emission and energy evolution from road vehicles. SIBYL projections are calibrated against higher-tier energy and/or activity projections and hence can be used to further understand potential problems or inconsistencies observed for individual Member States. The scenario building procedure in SIBYL includes a range of options for the development of user-defined scenarios with a variety of conventional and more advanced vehicle types. SIBYL has been recently redesigned and is now a COPERT compatible dataset which can be used for cost assessment models, to calculate the total emissions and benefits as well as the associated new technology implementation costs, towards the cost-benefit calculation.

For the creation of each scenario, the model takes as input data the number of new registrations and stock, the activity data and driving patterns (speeds, shares, etc.) as well as information about fuel for each year and type of vehicle and for all powertrains available in the market. Sibyl is now a COPERT compatible dataset which uses the emission factors of the latest COPERT version, but the list of vehicles has been enhanced such that all alternative powertrains has been considered. In total, 760 different vehicles from road transport are currently part of the SIBYL baseline.