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NEAC

European Transport Forecast Model

Transporttransport modeltransport network

Quality & Transparency

Quality

Model uncertainties

Models are by definition affected by uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?

no
NEAC is used for a wide variety of tasks, often to fill gaps, where no precise data exists. The model is calibrated to available data, but this does not cover the full range of uncertainties in a system of this scale.

    Sensitivity analysis

    Sensitivity analysis helps identifying the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for the uncertainty in the model responses. Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?

    yes
    The key area which has been studied is the sensitivity of the mode split function. This has been done by comparing to other models and other functions.

      Have model results been published in peer-reviewed articles?

      no
      Not in full, and not by external parties. The model however uses functional forms and parameters which have been published in research studies, e.g. TRANSTOOLS.

        Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?

        Please note that this does not refer to the cases when model results were validated by stakeholders.

        no

          Model validation

          Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?

          yes
          NEAC is one of the older European models, and therefore there are many published studies containing forecasts made in the past with projections to the (now) present day. Recently comparisons have been made with the EU Reference Forecasts, so that input assumptions can be aligned, and outputs compared in detail.

            Transparency

            To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?

            This may include sources accessible upon subscription and/or payment

            Entirely based on publicly available sources

            Is the full model database as such available to external users?

            Whether or not it implies a specific procedure or a fee

            yes
            NEAC uses the ETIS-PLUS databases, which is openly and freely available.

              Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?

              Note this excludes IA reports.

              yes

              Have output datasets been made publicly available?

              Note this could also imply a specific procedure or a fee.

              no
              There are no confidentiality restrictions with the outputs.

                Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?

                For instance: Dashboard, interactive interfaces...

                no

                  Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?

                  Note this excludes IA reports.

                  yes
                  A full description of the model is available on the Panteia website, or alternatively on request.

                  Is there a dedicated public website where information about the model is provided?

                  no

                    Is the model code open-source?

                    no

                    Can the code be accessed upon request?

                    yes