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NEAC

European Transport Forecast Model

Transporttransport modeltransport network

overview

Transporttransport modeltransport network

main purpose

NEAC is a European network-based transport model primarily used for analysing multimodal freight.

summary

NEAC is a multimodal network-based freight transport model, used for analysing cargo flows for European policy analysis. The system covers all of Europe, neighbouring and worldwide countries and provides the link between traffic and economic development across European regions. NEAC is a privately owned model, originally developed in the 1990s for European analysis of freight flows, and maintained and updated by Panteia/NEA (NL).

NEAC is a classical four-step transport model, meaning that it follows a top-down approach, estimating traffic generation, distribution, mode split and network assignment.  It was designed to work with the openly available data and data structures produced by the (European Transport policy Information System) ETIS-BASE and ETIS-PLUS projects, thus allowing the model to be linked to other European models.

The basic geographical units within the system are NUTS3 regions and the model covers road, rail,  inland waterway, ports and maritime.  Starting from a database of multimodal chains (produced by the WORLDNET FP6 project), the model simulates the multimodal routeing of the different commodity types from origin to destination via the transport network, and it contains cost models which are used to determine cargo routeing.  Through a combination of exogenous and endogenous effects, the system can be modelled over time to produce projections.  Sea transport is included within the multimodal network structures in NEAC, making it possible to analyse shifts between maritime and inland freight, as well as competition between ports.

The NEAC model can be used in the context of impact assessments, for supporting policy formulation. It is particularly suitable for modelling transport infrastructure policies (e.g. TEN-T), multimodal freight, port competition and containerisation.  

model type

ownership

Third-party ownership (commercial companies, Member States, other organisations, …)
Developed and maintained by Panteia/NEA

licence

Licence type
Non-Free Software licence

homepage

https://www.panteia.com/services/transport-modelling-and-databases/

details on model structure and approach

Source: SWD(2018)178

See also: https://www.panteia.com/themes/transport-mobility/transport-models/

model inputs

  • Transport networks (ETIS-PLUS) – road, rail, inland waterway, maritime
  • TENtec data – definition of European corridors
  • Trade data (COMEXT)
  • Transport OD (tonnes lifted, landed) data (source Eurostat, per mode)
  • Transport performance data (tonne-kms)
  • Transport cost data
  • Traffic link flow data (e.g. trucks, trains per network section)
  • Model parameters are primarily based on TRANSTOOLS (DG-MOVE)

model outputs

Typical outputs used in practice are:

  • Traffic flow maps (e.g. full network or corridor level)
  • Mode shares (in TKM) per territorial unit.
  • Estimations of system costs (internal and external)
  • Base year, forecast, or scenario-based outputs.

model spatial-temporal resolution and extent

ParameterDescription
Spatial Extent/Country Coverage
EU Member states 27ALL countries of the WORLD
NEAC models all Europe-related freight flows, including extra-EU trade. The model regions cover the whole world. Flows between non-European countries are not modelled.
Spatial Resolution
NationalSub-national (NUTS1)Sub-national (NUTS2)Sub-national (NUTS3)
The model uses NUTS3 regions within Europe, and larger e.g. national regions for most non-European countries. Certain larger non-European countries such as China or USA are split into equivalent of NUTS1 regions.
Temporal Extent
Medium-term (5 to 15 years)Long-term (more than 15 years)
The model uses a single base year (e.g. 2015) and can forecast at annual level. There are no technical limits on the forecasting horizon, but in practice, a typical forecast period would be 10-20 years in the future.
Temporal Resolution
Years