European Commission logo
Joint Research Center (JRC)
AGLINK-COSIMO

AGricultural LINKage - COmmodity SImulation Model

Agriculturemulti-commodity modelbaselineOECDFAOSimulationagricultural markets

Quality & Transparency

Quality

Model uncertainties

Models are by definition affected by uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?

yes
Uncertainties in input data and simulations are quantified every year with the partial stochastics module (Araujo-Enciso et al. 2017). Uncertainties in parameters are dealt with on a case-by-case basis using deterministic shocks.

    Sensitivity analysis

    Sensitivity analysis helps identifying the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for the uncertainty in the model responses. Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?

    yes
    Sensitivity analysis is performed every year with the partial stochastics module (Araujo-Enciso et al. 2017).

      Have model results been published in peer-reviewed articles?

      yes

        Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?

        Please note that this does not refer to the cases when model results were validated by stakeholders.

        yes
        Done formally by the OECD in 2009-10

          Model validation

          Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?

          yes
          Informally, on a case-by-case basis. An ex-post exercise can be found in the OECD library (2013 version, Box 1.1).

          Transparency

          To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?

          This may include sources accessible upon subscription and/or payment

          Based on both publicly available and restricted-access sources

          Is the full model database as such available to external users?

          Whether or not it implies a specific procedure or a fee

          no
          Property of the model consortium

            Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?

            Note this excludes IA reports.

            yes

            Have output datasets been made publicly available?

            Note this could also imply a specific procedure or a fee.

            yes
            Updated annually.

            Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?

            For instance: Dashboard, interactive interfaces...

            no

              Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?

              Note this excludes IA reports.

              yes

              Is there a dedicated public website where information about the model is provided?

              no

                Is the model code open-source?

                no

                Can the code be accessed upon request?

                no