AGricultural LINKage - COmmodity SImulation Model

The AGLINK-COSIMO model provides a yearly updated medium-term baseline to other market models used in the Commission, such as CAPRI, MAGNET and AGMEMOD. It is therefore used indirectly for ex-ante impact assessment (e.g., biofuels, climate negotiations, CAP reform, trade agreements). The partial stochastic analysis based on AGLINK-COSIMO is also used to analyze ex-ante the impacts of specific policy reforms.

An important activity of the European Commission is the annual production of medium-term (10 years) baseline projections for EU agricultural commodity markets (EC 2019), published annually by the Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development (DG AGRI) in the second half of the year. AGLINK-COSIMO, which is maintained at the JRC, is the key tool for building those baseline projections as well as for performing uncertainty and sensitivity analyses due to alternative macroeconomic environments and crop yields.