European Commission logo
Joint Research Center (JRC)
PRIMES

Price-Induced Market Equilibrium System

Energyemissionsenergy demandenergy supply

Quality & Transparency

Quality

Model uncertainties

Models are by definition affected by uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?

yes
Uncertainties on assumptions can be addressed by producing variants with the model.

    Sensitivity analysis

    Sensitivity analysis helps identifying the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for the uncertainty in the model responses. Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?

    yes
    Sensitivity analysis can be produced with the model.

      Have model results been published in peer-reviewed articles?

      yes
      The model has undergone a peer review. See Commission staff working paper: SEC(2011)1569. Results and model developments are regularly published in peer-reviewed journals. The model has been used in multiple peer reviewed publications.

      Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?

      Please note that this does not refer to the cases when model results were validated by stakeholders.

      yes

        Model validation

        Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?

        not applicable
        The model is calibrated on historical data. The model does not do predictions but comparative scenario analysis based on assumptions.

          Transparency

          To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?

          This may include sources accessible upon subscription and/or payment

          Based on both publicly available and restricted-access sources

          Is the full model database as such available to external users?

          Whether or not it implies a specific procedure or a fee

          no
          The input data to the model is not published, but it builds on multiple sources, a large number of which being publicly accessible. The technology input data, as well as other elements are fully publicly available.

            Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?

            Note this excludes IA reports.

            yes

            Have output datasets been made publicly available?

            Note this could also imply a specific procedure or a fee.

            yes
            Selected model outputs are made publicly available. Published outputs are defined by the Commission and are project-specific.

              Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?

              For instance: Dashboard, interactive interfaces...

              no

                Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?

                Note this excludes IA reports.

                yes
                The model documentation is publicly available. The model documentation includes the architecture and logic of the model and its different modules as well as the mathematical formulation. Many peer reviewed journals include mathematical formulations.

                Is there a dedicated public website where information about the model is provided?

                yes

                  Is the model code open-source?

                  no

                  Can the code be accessed upon request?

                  no