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Joint Research Center (JRC)
MELISA

Model for European LIght Sources Analysis

EnvironmentEnergystock modelsustainable consumptionecomodellingeco-designenergy labellight sources

Quality & Transparency

Quality

Model uncertainties

Models are by definition affected by uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?

yes
To a limited extent. Most uncertainty is typically not in the model but in the input data. At the low aggregation level of commercial, economic and environmental data for consumer- and professional products the uncertainty is often high, and the model is typically used to reach consensus amongst stakeholders of what are acceptable data.

    Sensitivity analysis

    Sensitivity analysis helps identifying the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for the uncertainty in the model responses. Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?

    yes
    As much as possible. Sensitivity analyses with the model have been extensively used during the Lot 8/9/19 review study and the subsequent impact assessment phase to reach consensus. The model set-up facilitates quick evaluation of changes in input parameters (user choices between scenarios on sheet Option Control). In particular LFL-lifetimes, LED efficacies, LED prices and electricity rates were subject to sensitivity analysis. The final IA reports the results of sensitivity analysis on electricity rates (see SWD (2019) 357 Part 2, Annex 4.9).

      Have model results been published in peer-reviewed articles?

      no
      In addition to the general scrutiny by stakeholders (industry, NGOs, Member States, EU institutions), MELISA was examined in detail by industry experts (LightingEurope). The model is generally appreciated by lighting experts in the field and an important reference for studies on light sources. It has been used for the Lot 8/9/19 review study, the Lot 37 study on lighting systems, the impact assessment SWD (2019) 357, and in the context of RoHS evaluation of exemptions for mercury in light sources.

        Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?

        Please note that this does not refer to the cases when model results were validated by stakeholders.

        no

          Model validation

          Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?

          yes
          Yes, model validation by industry, experts, stakeholders has been done, see above. In the context of the review of regulations a comparison between the projected saving from the first IA versus what actually happened ex-post is a mandatory part of the analysis (following REFIT in Better Regulation Toolbox). See also SWD (2019) 357 Part 3, Annex 9.

            Transparency

            To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?

            This may include sources accessible upon subscription and/or payment

            Based on both publicly available and restricted-access sources

            Is the full model database as such available to external users?

            Whether or not it implies a specific procedure or a fee

            no
            Partly. The vast majority of the input data and output data are reported in the various studies that used MELISA (Lot 8/9/19 study, Lot 37 study, IA SWD (2019) 357). The final reports of these studies are available on the Commission website.

              Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?

              Note this excludes IA reports.

              yes

              Have output datasets been made publicly available?

              Note this could also imply a specific procedure or a fee.

              no
              The output have been presented in various studies that used MELISA (Lot 8/9/19 study, Lot 37 study, IA SWD (2019) 357).

                Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?

                For instance: Dashboard, interactive interfaces...

                no

                  Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?

                  Note this excludes IA reports.

                  no
                  Partly. Data and calculations are directly visible in the model and partly presented/ explained in the various study reports. However, there is no full manual of the architecture of the software available.

                  Is there a dedicated public website where information about the model is provided?

                  yes

                    Is the model code open-source?

                    no

                    Can the code be accessed upon request?

                    yes