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GINFORS-E

Global Interindustry FORecasting System - Energy

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Quality & Transparency

Quality

Model uncertainties

Models are by definition affected by uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?

yes
The model can be run multiple times to test sensitivity of model properties including key assumptions.

    Sensitivity analysis

    Sensitivity analysis helps identifying the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for the uncertainty in the model responses. Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?

    yes
    Due to the large number of variables per country and sector and the size of the result data set, this is not systematically possible. However, short model runtimes of about one minute allow extensive testing of individual important specifications and new model parts.

      Have model results been published in peer-reviewed articles?

      yes
      Several peer-reviewed publications have been made by the developers of the model. A comprehensive model description can be found most recently in Lutz et al. (2010). An updated model description publication is planned by 2022. Applications are published in Lutz et al. (2012), Lutz, Meyer 2009a and b), Wiebe, Lutz (2016), and Wiebe et al. (2016).

        Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?

        Please note that this does not refer to the cases when model results were validated by stakeholders.

        no

          Model validation

          Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?

          yes
          Simulation properties of the model are compared with results of other similar models such as E3ME, GTAP-E and GEM-E3.

            Transparency

            To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?

            This may include sources accessible upon subscription and/or payment

            Entirely based on publicly available sources

            Is the full model database as such available to external users?

            Whether or not it implies a specific procedure or a fee

            no
            Data are publicly available sources such as OECD (input-output tables, bilateral trade data), IEA (energy balances, energy prices, CO2 emissions), and other sources such as IMF, UN, World Bank, Eurostat.

              Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?

              Note this excludes IA reports.

              yes

              Have output datasets been made publicly available?

              Note this could also imply a specific procedure or a fee.

              no
              Depending on contract.

                Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?

                For instance: Dashboard, interactive interfaces...

                no

                  Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?

                  Note this excludes IA reports.

                  no

                  Is there a dedicated public website where information about the model is provided?

                  yes

                  Is the model code open-source?

                  no

                  Can the code be accessed upon request?

                  no