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Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Analysis

Agriculturepartial equilibrium modelEnvironmentagricultureCAPimpact analysisclimate changegreenhouse gas

Quality & Transparency


Model uncertainties

Models are by definition affected by uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?

The model is deterministic. Uncertainties in parameters are covered by targeted sensitivity analysis on a few key parameters. The large model size does not permit full-fledged uncertainty analyses.

Sensitivity analysis

Sensitivity analysis helps identifying the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for the uncertainty in the model responses. Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?

When carrying out analysis key variables (i.e. yield trends, exchange rate, etc.) are changed to see the relative impact of assumptions on final results.

Has model been published in peer-review articles?

The model has been extensively published in peer-reviewed journals and is widely regarded as the gold-standard for regional level analysis of agricultural and climate policy.

Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?

Please note that this does not refer to the cases when model results were validated by stakeholders.

There has been no formal evaluation of the model by an external panel

Model validation

Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?

Projections are not the main objective of the model, the model's strength lays in analysing deviations from the baseline (i.e. projections) due to external shocks (policy or other).


To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?

This may include sources accessible upon subscription and/or payment

Entirely based on publicly available sources

Is the full model database as such available to external users?

Whether or not it implies a specific procedure or a fee

The potential user has access to the full database (COCO) as part of the model files which are made available following the procedure described at

Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?

Note this excludes IA reports.


Have output datasets been made publicly available?

Note this could also imply a specific procedure or a fee.

Model results are available as a gdx file together with a graphic user interface available at Some specific model runs might not be public if carried out by a partner for a specific client. Those undertaken (or funded) by the JRC can be made publicly available unless confidentiality requested by the partner DG (i.e. preliminary IA work).

Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?

For instance: Dashboard, interactive interfaces...

Model results are available as a gdx file together with a graphic user interface.

Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?

Note this excludes IA reports.

There is methodology and documentation section in the model's web site where all modules are documented. Wiki format and a collection of pdf documents are both available.

Is there a dedicated public website where information about the model is provided?


Is the model code open-source?


Can the code be accessed upon request?

not applicable