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Joint Research Center (JRC)
CAPRI

Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Analysis

Agriculturepartial equilibrium modelEnvironmentagricultureCAPimpact analysisclimate changegreenhouse gas

Quality & Transparency

Quality

Model uncertainties

Models are by definition affected by uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?

no
The model is deterministic. Uncertainties in parameters are covered by targeted sensitivity analysis on a few key parameters. The large model size does not permit full-fledged uncertainty analyses.

    Sensitivity analysis

    Sensitivity analysis helps identifying the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for the uncertainty in the model responses. Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?

    yes
    When carrying out analysis key variables (i.e. yield trends, exchange rate, etc.) are changed to see the relative impact of assumptions on final results.

      Have model results been published in peer-reviewed articles?

      yes
      The model has been extensively published in peer-reviewed journals and is widely regarded as the gold-standard for regional level analysis of agricultural and climate policy.

        Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?

        Please note that this does not refer to the cases when model results were validated by stakeholders.

        no
        There has been no formal evaluation of the model by an external panel

          Model validation

          Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?

          no
          Projections are not the main objective of the model, the model's strength lays in analysing deviations from the baseline (i.e. projections) due to external shocks (policy or other).

            Transparency

            To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?

            This may include sources accessible upon subscription and/or payment

            Entirely based on publicly available sources

            Is the full model database as such available to external users?

            Whether or not it implies a specific procedure or a fee

            yes
            The potential user has access to the full database (COCO) as part of the model files which are made available following the procedure described in the CAPRI website.

            Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?

            Note this excludes IA reports.

            yes

            Have output datasets been made publicly available?

            Note this could also imply a specific procedure or a fee.

            yes
            Model results are available as a gdx file together with a graphic user interface. Some specific model runs might not be public if carried out by a partner for a specific client. Those undertaken (or funded) by the JRC can be made publicly available unless confidentiality requested by the partner DG (i.e. preliminary IA work).

            Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?

            For instance: Dashboard, interactive interfaces...

            yes
            Model results are available as a gdx file together with a graphic user interface.

            Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?

            Note this excludes IA reports.

            yes
            There is methodology and documentation section in the model's web site where all modules are documented. Wiki format and a collection of pdf documents are both available.

            Is there a dedicated public website where information about the model is provided?

            yes

            Is the model code open-source?

            yes

            Can the code be accessed upon request?

            not applicable