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ASTRA

ASsessment of TRAnsport Strategies

TransportTransportEnergyEnvironmenteconomy

Quality & Transparency

Quality

Model uncertainties

Models are by definition affected by uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?

yes
ASTRA is a model based on the System Dynamics approach which is a methodology perfectly suited for dealing with uncertainty as it offers the possibility to combine quantitative and qualitative inputs in the modelling. Furthermore, the running time of ASTRA model simulations up to the year 2050 takes only a few minutes and this makes it possible to analyse effectively different scenarios and respective variants.

    Sensitivity analysis

    Sensitivity analysis helps identifying the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for the uncertainty in the model responses. Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?

    yes
    Sensitivity analysis tests are usually performed during the ASTRA model calibration phase. In many studies sensitivity tests have been done as well during the analysis of policy options in order to assess the soundness of model results.

      Have model results been published in peer-reviewed articles?

      yes
      Model results have been published in different peer reviewed journals as well as in PhD thesis. Since many years the model is also regularly used by the Energy and Transport Unit of Economics of climate change at EC JRC Seville. Nevertheless, a peer review of the model itself by a panel of experts has not being performed.

        Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?

        Please note that this does not refer to the cases when model results were validated by stakeholders.

        no

          Model validation

          Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?

          no

            Transparency

            To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?

            This may include sources accessible upon subscription and/or payment

            Based on both publicly available and restricted-access sources

            Is the full model database as such available to external users?

            Whether or not it implies a specific procedure or a fee

            no
            The ASTRA database is a combination of publicly available data from official sources (such as Eurostat) and specific data that have been elaborated by the modellers team drawing from scientific literature, statistics, sector studies, etc.

              Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?

              Note this excludes IA reports.

              yes

              Have output datasets been made publicly available?

              Note this could also imply a specific procedure or a fee.

              no
              According to the needs of the clients of the studies, model outputs have been made public. Over the years ASTRA model results have been presented in many publicly available reports.

                Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?

                For instance: Dashboard, interactive interfaces...

                no
                The development of a dashboard to present results would be an interesting objective that would be supported by the developers. So far, projects did not fund such an endeavor.

                  Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?

                  Note this excludes IA reports.

                  yes

                  Is there a dedicated public website where information about the model is provided?

                  yes

                  Is the model code open-source?

                  no

                  Can the code be accessed upon request?

                  no