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Joint Research Center (JRC)
AIM

Aviation Integrated Model

Transportaviation

Quality & Transparency

Quality

Model uncertainties

Models are by definition affected by uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?

yes
Uncertainties are accounted for via scenario or Monte Carlo analysis for socioeconomic/policy variables and lens/monte carlo modelling for uncertain technology/fuel parameters.

    Sensitivity analysis

    Sensitivity analysis helps identifying the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for the uncertainty in the model responses. Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?

    yes
    Sensitivity analysis was carried out as part of the initial AIM2015 validation process (Dray et al. 2019). Further sensitivity analysis, concentrating on fuel and carbon costs and socioeconomic scenario, was carried out as part of the process of making an AIM metamodel for the HORIZON2020 NAVIGATE project.

      Have model results been published in peer-reviewed articles?

      yes

        Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?

        Please note that this does not refer to the cases when model results were validated by stakeholders.

        no
        The ACCLAIM project, during which the model was comprehensively updated, involved periodic review by a project advisory board

          Model validation

          Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?

          yes
          Validation is via peer review in the scientific literature and through comparing backcasting outcomes with actual developments (in particular see Dray et al., 2019). During this process, the model is run with a 2005 base year and outcomes between 2005 and the present day are assessed against observed outcomes.

            Transparency

            To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?

            This may include sources accessible upon subscription and/or payment

            Based on both publicly available and restricted-access sources

            Is the full model database as such available to external users?

            Whether or not it implies a specific procedure or a fee

            yes
            Note that some model data is confidential and so a simplified version is provided in the public database

            Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?

            Note this excludes IA reports.

            yes

            Have output datasets been made publicly available?

            Note this could also imply a specific procedure or a fee.

            no
            There is no limitation on making model outputs public

              Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?

              For instance: Dashboard, interactive interfaces...

              no

                Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?

                Note this excludes IA reports.

                yes

                Is there a dedicated public website where information about the model is provided?

                yes

                Is the model code open-source?

                yes

                Can the code be accessed upon request?

                not applicable