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Joint Research Center (JRC)
AERO-MS

Aviation Emissions and evaluation of Reduction Options Modelling System

Transportaviation

Quality & Transparency

Quality

Model uncertainties

Models are by definition affected by uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?

yes
Uncertainties in the input assumptions were considered during the project ‘Study on AViation and Economic modelling (SAVE)' (see references). Uncertainties/sensitivities can be considered by relevant changes to the input parameters. It is common to model multiple demand forecasts as baselines (e.g. low, central, high) to recognize the uncertainty in the background forecast, but changes in other parameters are also feasible.

    Sensitivity analysis

    Sensitivity analysis helps identifying the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for the uncertainty in the model responses. Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?

    yes
    Some results were described in the SAVE Final report.

      Have model results been published in peer-reviewed articles?

      no
      Model was reviewed by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP) and approved for use on CAEP policy analyses.

        Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?

        Please note that this does not refer to the cases when model results were validated by stakeholders.

        no

          Model validation

          Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?

          yes
          In addition to the basic validation performed during the development of the model, ex-post comparisons are also made when the model is applied to ex-post evaluation studies.

            Transparency

            To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?

            This may include sources accessible upon subscription and/or payment

            Entirely based on restricted-access sources

            Is the full model database as such available to external users?

            Whether or not it implies a specific procedure or a fee

            no
            The base year movements database uses confidential data.

              Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?

              Note this excludes IA reports.

              yes

              Have output datasets been made publicly available?

              Note this could also imply a specific procedure or a fee.

              no
              The licence for use allows for the publication of, appropriately acknowledged, results from the model.

                Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?

                For instance: Dashboard, interactive interfaces...

                no

                  Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?

                  Note this excludes IA reports.

                  yes
                  A detailed description of the model is provided in the SAVE Final Report.

                  Is there a dedicated public website where information about the model is provided?

                  no

                    Is the model code open-source?

                    no

                    Can the code be accessed upon request?

                    no