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Joint Research Center (JRC)
Vivid EU ETS model

European Union Emissions Trading System model

ClimateClimateemissionsMarket Stability ReserveMSRTradingEU ETS

Quality & Transparency

Quality

Model uncertainties

Models are by definition affected by uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?

yes
Uncertainties in policy environment are explicitly captured in scenario analysis. Uncertainties in inputs (baseline emissions, MACC, interest rates, anticipation period, growth rate) were tested using sensitivity analysis.

    Sensitivity analysis

    Sensitivity analysis helps identifying the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for the uncertainty in the model responses. Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?

    yes
    The model has undergone sensitivity analysis for all the input parameters (as above).

      Have model results been published in peer-reviewed articles?

      yes
      The model has been peer reviewed as part of publication in the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (see Quemin & Trotignon, 2021)

        Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?

        Please note that this does not refer to the cases when model results were validated by stakeholders.

        no

          Model validation

          Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?

          not applicable
          Model looks at the future past 2021

            Transparency

            To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?

            This may include sources accessible upon subscription and/or payment

            Entirely based on restricted-access sources

            Is the full model database as such available to external users?

            Whether or not it implies a specific procedure or a fee

            no
            The model and underlying database is a proprietary asset belonging to Vivid Economics.

              Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?

              Note this excludes IA reports.

              yes

              Have output datasets been made publicly available?

              Note this could also imply a specific procedure or a fee.

              no
              The scenarios and outputs provided as part of the study carried out in support of the EU ETS review are intended for open publication.

                Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?

                For instance: Dashboard, interactive interfaces...

                no

                  Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?

                  Note this excludes IA reports.

                  yes
                  The final report includes a methodology section for publication.

                  Is there a dedicated public website where information about the model is provided?

                  no

                    Is the model code open-source?

                    no

                    Can the code be accessed upon request?

                    no