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Joint Research Center (JRC)
TiMBA

Timber market Model for policy-Based Analysis

AgricultureEconomyΟtherforestforestry economicsinternational tradewood productseconomic model

Quality & Transparency

Quality

Model uncertainties

Models are by definition affected by uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?

yes
Uncertainties are dealt with at different stages of the modelling process. uncertainties in input data (esp. data of production and trade) are determined and tackled during model calibration using both data smoothing and a goal-programming based optimization routine to detect and correct remaining implausibility’s. Uncertainties in input parameter such as income and price elasticity are a tried to minimize by using holistic econometric approaches to estimate them and / or fit input parameters in line with model performance. Uncertainties resulting from scenarios definitions are represented, e.g., through the use various scenarios, creating a range within which the results fluctuate.

    Sensitivity analysis

    Sensitivity analysis helps identifying the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for the uncertainty in the model responses. Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?

    yes
    A sampling-based approach was employed to assess sensitivity of modelling results. Input parameters were iteratively adjusted, and the resulting outputs were thoroughly examined.

      Have model results been published in peer-reviewed articles?

      no

        Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?

        Please note that this does not refer to the cases when model results were validated by stakeholders.

        no

          Model validation

          Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?

          yes
          The model underwent a thorough validation process, which included comparisons with historical data, evaluations against other forest sector models, and a stress test.

            Transparency

            To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?

            This may include sources accessible upon subscription and/or payment

            Entirely based on publicly available sources

            Is the full model database as such available to external users?

            Whether or not it implies a specific procedure or a fee

            yes
            It is based on Git Hub open source with comprehensive read me, developed in Python

            Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?

            Note this excludes IA reports.

            yes

            Have output datasets been made publicly available?

            Note this could also imply a specific procedure or a fee.

            no

              Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?

              For instance: Dashboard, interactive interfaces...

              no

                Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?

                Note this excludes IA reports.

                yes

                Is there a dedicated public website where information about the model is provided?

                yes

                Is the model code open-source?

                yes

                Can the code be accessed upon request?

                not applicable