Timber market Model for policy-Based Analysis

TiMBA can offer analytical support throughout the different phases of the policy cycle in the forest sector. The model outcomes help policymakers to assess complex interactions between markets, resources, and policy interventions in a transparent and data-driven manner. TiMBA use scenario analysis, allowing policymakers to evaluate the potential impacts of different regulatory pathways or legislative proposals, which are otherwise difficult to grasp in their complexity.

During agenda setting, the model results can support the help identification of emerging challenges by projecting market trends and resource needs. In policy formulation, different model runs support the comparison of policy options by simulating their impacts on production, trade and forest resource use. TiMBA can contribute to legitimation (or non-legitimation) of policies by providing evidence-based assessment for proposed measures.

During implementation and evaluation, the analysis can guide practical decisions by highlighting possible market responses and assess whether the policy implementation would achieve intended outcomes, helping to anticipate and manage projected disruptions. For policy maintenance, succession, or termination, the model can inform strategic decisions by modeling long-term effects under evolving market conditions.

Examples:

As part of an EU project, wood-based biomass potentials were estimated using the TiMBA model and subsequently analyzed in a report focusing on future outlooks up to the year 2050. (Carus et al. 2025)

TiMBA is being applied in the Carbon Leak Project (https://www.thuenen.de/en/cross-institutional-projects/carbon-leak) to assess how climate protection measures, such as CO₂ pricing, influence the production and trade of raw and semi-finished wood products.