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Joint Research Center (JRC)
POTEnCIA

Policy-Oriented Tool for Energy and Climate Change Impact Assessment

EnergyEnergyClimate policytransport modelEnergy modelenergy policypartial equilibriumGHG emissionsTransport Policy

Quality & Transparency

Quality

Model uncertainties

Models are by definition affected by uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?

yes
POTEnCIA is a deterministic model. Additionally, policy uncertainty is covered by running multiple scenarios in a what-if fashion.

    Sensitivity analysis

    Sensitivity analysis helps identifying the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for the uncertainty in the model responses. Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?

    yes
    Sensitivity analysis is carried out within the framework of comparative scenario assessments done with POTEnCIA. Typical cases include sensitivities on energy commodity price trajectories

      Have model results been published in peer-reviewed articles?

      yes

        Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?

        Please note that this does not refer to the cases when model results were validated by stakeholders.

        yes
        EC internal validation (during 2016 and 2017). External peer-review 2016.

          Model validation

          Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?

          not applicable
          POTEnCIA is not designed to perform predictions but rather comparative scenario analysis.

            Transparency

            To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?

            This may include sources accessible upon subscription and/or payment

            Based on both publicly available and restricted-access sources

            Is the full model database as such available to external users?

            Whether or not it implies a specific procedure or a fee

            yes

            Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?

            Note this excludes IA reports.

            yes

            Have output datasets been made publicly available?

            Note this could also imply a specific procedure or a fee.

            yes
            Final scenario results, upon agreement with other Commission services

              Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?

              For instance: Dashboard, interactive interfaces...

              no

                Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?

                Note this excludes IA reports.

                yes

                Is there a dedicated public website where information about the model is provided?

                yes

                Is the model code open-source?

                no

                Can the code be accessed upon request?

                no