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Joint Research Center (JRC)
POLES

Prospective Outlook for the Long term Energy System

ClimateEnergyClimate policyEnergy modelenergy policyscenario analysis

Quality & Transparency

Quality

Model uncertainties

Models are by definition affected by uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?

no
Different model runs can be done with different settings to represent uncertainty in model parameters.

    Sensitivity analysis

    Sensitivity analysis helps identifying the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for the uncertainty in the model responses. Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?

    yes
    In multiple occasions, batch runs have been done to test the model's reactiveness to different values of a single input parameter (carbon price, technology costs…).

      Have model results been published in peer-reviewed articles?

      yes
      The model has participated in inter-model comparison exercises for many years, in which peers compare models' results and methodologies, and has participated in many peer-reviewed papers.

        Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?

        Please note that this does not refer to the cases when model results were validated by stakeholders.

        no

          Model validation

          Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?

          not applicable
          Historic period (from 1990 to current year -1 or -2) is used to calibrate parameters that allow the model to endogenously reproduce observed patterns.

            Transparency

            To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?

            This may include sources accessible upon subscription and/or payment

            Based on both publicly available and restricted-access sources

            Is the full model database as such available to external users?

            Whether or not it implies a specific procedure or a fee

            no
            A large part of input data is not public. The full list of data sources is available in the POLES-JRC manual. Additional data can be provided on demand.

              Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?

              Note this excludes IA reports.

              yes

              Have output datasets been made publicly available?

              Note this could also imply a specific procedure or a fee.

              yes
              Examples of output data made available are energy and GHG emissions balances provided with the GECO report(s), as well as a web interface to navigate results and access data on the GECO web site

                Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?

                For instance: Dashboard, interactive interfaces...

                no

                  Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?

                  Note this excludes IA reports.

                  yes

                  Is there a dedicated public website where information about the model is provided?

                  yes

                  Is the model code open-source?

                  no

                  Can the code be accessed upon request?

                  no