PACKEM
Source: Commission modelling inventory and knowledge management system (MIDAS)
Date of Report Generation: Fri Sep 18 2026
Dissemination: Public
© European Union, 2026
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Overview
Acronym
PACKEM
Full title
Packaging placed-on-the-market estimation model
Main purpose
The model aims to estimate the amounts of consumer packaging placed on the market in EU countries.
Summary
The EU Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation contains measures designed to prevent the generation of packaging waste and to promote the re‑use, recycling and recovery of packaging. To this end, the Regulation establishes mandatory recycling‑rate targets for each Member State and obliges them to submit annual reports on the quantities of packaging waste generated and the quantities that have been recycled, recovered or otherwise processed. To help Member States verify their measurement and calculation methods of packaging placed on the market (POM) referring to a set of packaging categories, the JRC developed a model that estimates the amounts of packaging placed on the market for food and beverage products, cat and dog food, home care products, and beauty and personal care products. The model provides yearly estimates of packaging quantities placed on the market distinguishing by packaging material (e.g. PET plastic, HDPE plastic, glass, paper and cardboard), in 19 EU countries (contributing to 97% of the EU population), for the time range 2008-2025.
Model categories
EconomyEnvironment
Model keywords
packagingfood and beveragehome and personal care productsplaced on the market
Model homepage
Ownership and Licence
Ownership
EU ownership (European Commision)
Ownership details
Licence type
No information available
Details
Structure and approach
The model is built on an extensive database providing country-level information on consumer goods sold by packaging type in the following sectors: food and beverages, home care, beauty and personal care, cat and dog food. Sales volumes are provided for each Product Variant (PV), identified based on three key components: product type, packaging type and packaging size (e.g. milk, HDPE bottle, 1000 ml). Each PV is assigned a unitary mass corresponding to the mass of the packaging container once empty. Unitary masses were collected by performing an online search through websites of packaging suppliers, complemented by a data-gap-filling procedure. The number of PVs sold are multiplied by their unitary mass to estimate the total mass of packaging materials placed on the market per country and year.
Input and parametrization
The packaging estimation model is built on the combination of:
- Sales volumes of consumer goods by packaging type
- Data on packaging unitary mass collected from packaging supplier websites
Main output
The model estimates for each country considered and years between 2011 and 2025 the amounts of consumer packaging placed on the market distinguishing by:
- Product category (e.g. dairy)
- Product (e.g. milk)
- Packaging material (e.g. HDPE)
- Packaging type (e.g. HDPE bottle)
The full list of materials considered is: Aluminium, Aluminium-Paper, Aluminium-Plastic, Liquid carton, Glass, High-Density PolyEthylene (HDPE), Paper, Paper-Plastic, PolyEthylene Terephtalate (PET), Plastic generic (unknow polymer), PolyPropylene (PP), PolyStyrene (PS), Steel.
Spatial & Temporal extent
The output has the following spatial-temporal resolution and extent:
| Parameter | Description |
|---|---|
| Spatial extent / country coverage | DenmarkFinlandSwedenGreeceItalyPortugalSpainAustriaBelgiumFranceGermanyIrelandNetherlandsBulgariaCzech RepublicHungaryPolandRomaniaSlovakia |
| Spatial resolution | National |
| Temporal extent | Medium-term (5 to 15 years) |
| Temporal resolution | Years |
Quality & Transparency
Quality
Model uncertainties
Models are by definition affected by uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?
- response
- yes
- details
- The following input parameters are affected by uncertainty: sales volumes, packaging unitary masses. Model uncertainties have been partially quantified through a deterministic interval uncertainty analysis. Specifically, the uncertainty in packaging unitary mass values was evaluated using its estimated minimum and maximum plausible bounds. The model outputs were computed across this range to determine the upper and lower bounds of the results.
- url
Sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity analysis helps identifying the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for the uncertainty in the model responses. Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?
- response
- no
- details
- No formal sensitivity analysis has been performed to date.
- url
Have model results been published in peer-reviewed articles?
- response
- no
- details
- url
Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?
Please note that this does not refer to the cases when model results were validated by stakeholders.
- response
- no
- details
- url
Model validation
Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?
- response
- yes
- details
- The model was validated by comparing the total quantities of plastic packaging with a top-down estimate provided by an MFA model at EU level
- url
Transparency
To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?
This may include sources accessible upon subscription and/or payment
- response
- Entirely based on publicly available sources
Is the full model database as such available to external users?
Whether or not it implies a specific procedure or a fee
- response
- no
- details
- Raw data on sales volumes cannot be disclosed, while the unitary masses of packaging types are listed in Annex 1 of the technical report.
- url
Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?
Note this excludes IA reports.
- response
- yes
- details
- documents
For details please refer to the 'peer review for model validation' documents in the bibliographic references
Have output datasets been made publicly available?
Note this could also imply a specific procedure or a fee.
- response
- yes
Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?
For instance: Dashboard, interactive interfaces...
- response
- yes
Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?
Note this excludes IA reports.
- response
- yes
- details
Is there a dedicated public website where information about the model is provided?
- response
- yes
Is the model code open-source?
- response
- no
- details
Can the code be accessed upon request?
- response
- yes
- details
- We can be contacted for questions on the code.
The model’s policy relevance and intended role in the policy cycle
The model is designed to contribute to the following policy areas
- Consumers
- Environment
- Statistics
The model is designed to contribute to the following phases of the policy cycle
- Anticipation – such as foresight and horizon scanning
- Evaluation – such as ex-post evaluation
- Formulation – such as ex-ante Impact Assessments
- Implementation – this also includes monitoring
The model’s potential
The main uses of the model for policy support are to compare the estimated amounts with the quantities of packaging waste reported by MSs according to Regulation 2025/40.
In addition, as this model contributes to a better understanding of the physical quantities of packaging placed on the market by material and product type and their variations through time, it can further support policy making in a number of ways.
- Monitoring: yearly updates of the estimates of packaging materials placed on the market can allow tracking the evolution of the sector over time
- Identifying substitution trends between competing packaging materials and emerging trends
- Setting a baseline against which policy options and green transitions scenarios can be tested, such as increase in bio-based packaging types.
Therefore, this model can support both monitoring and ex-post evaluation of existing policies, as well as performing scenario analysis that can be used in ex-ante impact assessment of policies.
Previous use of the model in ex-ante impact assessments of the European Commission
Use of the model in ex-ante impact assessments since July 2017.