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MIRAGE

Modelling International Relationships in Applied General Equilibrium

AgricultureClimateEconomyEnergyClimateagricultureCGEGTAPtraderecursive-dynamicex-ante Impact AssessmentNon-tariff barriers

Quality & Transparency

Quality

Model uncertainties

Models are by definition affected by uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?

no
CGE models routinely perform sensitivity analyses with respect to the value of key parameters or assumptions regarding the model structure. DG Trade for its in-house analyses has not engaged in quantifying these uncertainties. However, sensitivity analyses with respect to key parameters have been carried out e.g. Laborde, D., Padella, M., Edwards, R. and Marelli, L. (2014) (see references)

    Sensitivity analysis

    Sensitivity analysis helps identifying the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for the uncertainty in the model responses. Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?

    yes
    See response regarding uncertainties

      Have model results been published in peer-reviewed articles?

      yes
      Analyses using the model have been published in peer-reviewed scientific journals.

        Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?

        Please note that this does not refer to the cases when model results were validated by stakeholders.

        no

          Model validation

          Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?

          no
          No validation has to our knowledge been published so far inside or outside of the European Commission.

            Transparency

            To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?

            This may include sources accessible upon subscription and/or payment

            Entirely based on publicly available sources

            Is the full model database as such available to external users?

            Whether or not it implies a specific procedure or a fee

            yes
            The GTAP database requires a subscription.

              Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?

              Note this excludes IA reports.

              yes

              Have output datasets been made publicly available?

              Note this could also imply a specific procedure or a fee.

              no
              In-house analyses contributing to DG Trade evaluation studies have regularly been published as well as academic research.

                Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?

                For instance: Dashboard, interactive interfaces...

                no

                  Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?

                  Note this excludes IA reports.

                  yes
                  Please refer to the documents detailed in the summary

                  Is there a dedicated public website where information about the model is provided?

                  yes

                    Is the model code open-source?

                    no

                    Can the code be accessed upon request?

                    no