Annex 4 analytical methods

model description

general description

acronym: MELISA

name: Model for European LIght Sources Analysis

main purpose: To model environmental and socio-economic impacts of environmental product policy options on light sources, as part of preparatory-, review-, and impact assessment studies for ecodesign, energy labelling and similar end-use instruments.

homepage: http://ecodesign-lightsources.eu/documents

Developer and its nature

ownership: Third-party ownership (commercial companies, Member States, other organisations, …)

ownership additional info: Van Holsteijn en Kemna BV (‘VHK’): The model was developed by VHK in 2015 as an internal tool in the context of the Lot 8/9/19 review study. MELISA has been updated several times, most recently in 2020 to reflect the final voted lighting regulations. It has been implemented using Microsoft Excel. The European Commission has the right to internally use the tool. Further distribution, duplication, and use by third parties is allowed only after explicit written consent by VHK. Commercial use is prohibited.

is the model code open-source?: NO

Model structure and approach with any key assumptions, limitations and simplifications

details on model structure and approach

The Model for European LIght Sources Analysis (MELISA) addresses the technical potential and associated socio-economic impacts for EU policy options regarding resource efficiency improvement and emission abatement (greenhouse gases) for light sources. The resulting EU-level scenarios cover a 1990 to 2050 time-horizon.

MELISA is a variant of the Ecodesign Impact Accounting (EIA) model, see details in a separate MIDAS fact sheet, and thus based on the Methodology for Ecodesign of Energy-related Products (MEErP) for preparatory (review) studies in Ecodesign.

MELISA has been developed by VHK in the context of the 2015 Ecodesign and Energy Labelling review study on light sources (ENER Lot 8/9/19) with the aim to harmonize the data for two related preparatory studies on lighting, i.e. the ENER Lot 8/9/19 study on Light Sources (concluded in October 2015 [1] and basis for the 2019 Impact Assessment [2] and the ENER Lot 37 on Lighting Systems (concluded in December 2016) [3].

A detailed description of the October 2015 version of calculations and assumptions behind MELISA can be found in the Light Sources study [4]. The input data for the model (e.g. annual sales volumes, lifetimes, average luminous flux, power and efficacy, light source prices, etc.) have been extensively checked against other data sources and discussed with stakeholders.

The model validation, and the interaction with stakeholders, continued during the Impact Assessment study. In July 2016 this resulted in an updated MELISA version, incorporating new input data supplied by industry, and implementing an enhanced method to compute the installed stock of light sources from the annual sales and (variable) lifetimes.

A further update was performed in October 2017, in particular as regards the projections for the development of average LED efficacy and price. The projection curves were adapted to match the average LED efficacy derived from 2015-2017 catalogue data and taking into account recent projections from UNEP and US DoE [5]. A separate projection curve was created for directional lamps. In addition, electricity rates were updated from Eurostat data, and the option was inserted to use electricity rate projections from the PRIMES 2016 reference scenario [6].

The updated MELISA version of October 2017 has been used for the 2019 Impact Assessment on Light Sources [7]. The July 2016 version was used for the scenario analysis in the Lighting Systems (Lot 37) preparatory study [8] (using a dedicated model extension), thus ensuring compatibility of data and methods between the two related studies, and avoiding double counting of energy savings.

MELISA was last updated in 2020, to reflect differences between the 2019 impact assessment and the final adopted Commission (Delegated) Regulations 2019/2020 and 2019/2015, with the aim to update light source data in the Ecodesign Impact Accounting. This MELISA version was also used as input for the study regarding the environmental and cost impacts of renewal (or not) of RoHS exemptions for the mercury content of light sources [9].

MELISA distinguishes the light source base cases presented in Box 1. There are five groups of light source types:

Linear Fluorescent Lamps (LFL),
High-Intensity Discharge lamps (HID-lamps),
Compact Fluorescent Lamps without integrated ballast (CFLni),
Directional lamps (DLS) and
Non-directional lamps (NDLS).

Each group is subdivided in classical technology base cases and two associated LED base cases, respectively for LED retrofit lamps and light sources in integrated LED luminaires. The shift in light source sales from the (less efficient) classical technology base cases to the (more efficient) LED base cases of the same group is one of the essential mechanisms in MELISA, which distinguishes it from the more generic EIA-model. The user can control the sales-shift by defining up to 3 shift-scenarios (per type of light source, separately for residential and non-residential sectors), and MELISA will ensure that, when switching between scenarios, the overall EU stock of light sources remains the same. However, MELISA displays results only for the currently selected scenario (alternative scenarios have to be saved as separate files or as fixed values). To facilitate the sales-shift mechanism, MELISA uses a different internal organisation of the data than the EIA-model. Where EIA basically uses an organisation per parameter (e.g. Sales, Stock, Load, Efficiency, Energy, Emission, Expense), MELISA is based on an organisation per light source type (e.g. Linear fluorescent, Compact fluorescent, High-Intensity discharge, Incandescent GLS, Halogen, LED).

MELISA derives the total EU installed stock of light sources from data on the annual sales and on the average useful lifetimes [10]. These stock data are combined with average unit power values (W) and average annual operating hours per unit (h/a) to compute the total electricity consumption per base case (TWh/a). The contributions of the various base cases are summed to get the EU totals per sector (residential, non-residential) and overall.

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions directly related to electricity consumption for lighting are calculated on the basis of the Global Warming Potential (GWP) for electricity.

The electricity consumption is multiplied by the electricity rates (euros/kWh) to compute the associated annual electricity costs (bn euros per year). These are combined with the annual maintenance costs to obtain the total annual running costs.

Purchase costs (per base case, per sector, and overall EU total) are calculated multiplying the annual sales by unit prices per light source. Total acquisition costs include purchase costs and installation costs. The sum of total acquisition costs and running costs is the total consumer expense.

Business sector revenues (industry, wholesale, retail, installation, maintenance) are derived from the acquisition costs using the revenue-shares per sector derived in the Lot 8/9/19 review study. Associated jobs are derived ex-post from the EU total revenues, dividing by the same revenue/employee factors as used in the EIA-model.

In MELISA the main outputs are calculated for the EU as a whole.

Box 1

Light source base cases distinguished in the MELISA model. The shift in sales from classical technology base cases to LED base cases is one of the main mechanisms in the MELISA scenarios: