Annex 4 analytical methods

model description

general description

acronym
LISFLOOD
name
LISFLOOD hydrological model
main purpose
LISFLOOD is a model that simulates the full water cycle from rainfall to water in rivers, lakes and groundwater. The model simulates large areas such as river basins, continents or the entire globe. The model simulates the combined effects of weather and climate changes, land use, socio-economic changes on water demand, as well as policy measures for water savings or flood control. The model is used for water and climate studies, as well as flood and drought forecasting. 
homepage
https://ec-jrc.github.io/lisflood-model/

Developer and its nature

ownership
EU ownership (European Commission)
ownership additional info
Fully owned by JRC, uses public domain PCRaster Dynamic Modelling Software
is the model code open-source?
YES

Model structure and approach with any key assumptions, limitations and simplifications

details on model structure and approach

LISFLOOD is built up from several modules:  

  • A sub model calculating potential and actual evapotranspiration
  • A sub model calculation snow cover and snow melt
  • A 3-layer soil water balance sub model
  • Groundwater and subsurface flow sub model
  • Routing of channel flow sub model
  • Irrigation water requirement sub model
  • Embedded water abstraction and consumption sub models
  • A sub model calculating various indicators and economic impacts

The processes that are simulated by the model include snow melt, infiltration, interception of rainfall, leaf drainage, evaporation and water uptake by vegetation, surface runoff, preferential flow (bypass of soil layer), exchange of soil moisture between the two soil layers and drainage to the groundwater, sub-surface and groundwater flow, flow through river channels, lakes, reservoir operations, polders.

LISFLOOD uses spatio-temporal dynamic input of precipitation and other relevant meteorological variables to simulate water resources, and simulates how this water propagates through the landscape, taking into account temporal storages (snow, snowmelt; groundwater, lakes, reservoirs, soil water storages), water demand and consumption for natural vegetation growth, rainfed agriculture, irrigated agriculture (incl paddy rice), manufacturing industry, energy production (hydropower and thermal cooling), livestock and public water consumption. Remaining water is then routed through the rivers until it arrives at the coast.

LISFLOOD is very (input) data demanding, and limited quality input data will limit its output quality. If good quality daily input is provided, LISFLOOD will deliver state-of-the-art results. The simulation of groundwater is simplified, so it should not be used to carry out detailed groundwater studies. LISFLOOD can use a MODFLOW subroutine though (Trichakis et al., 2017), by which it could be used for detailed groundwater assessments. MODFLOW is a MODular Hydrologic FLOW model developed by the USGS.

LISFLOOD is a water quantity model only; water temperature is being added, as are modules for crop yield simulation. Nutrient and water quality sub-routines are currently not included but maybe envisaged for later development.

model inputs

Main inputs to LISFLOOD are:

  • Topography

    • Map local drain direction map
    • Map Slope gradient
    • Map Elevation range
  • Land use
    • Map with land use classes
    • Map forest fraction for each cell
    • Map fraction urban area for each cell
    • Look-up tables:
      • Crop coefficient for each land use class
      • Crop group number for each land use class
      • Rooting depth for each land use class
      • Manning’s roughness for each land use class
  • Water demand from various economic sectors
    • Fraction of irrigated area
    • Fraction of paddy rice irrigation
    • Daily water demand for manufacturing industry
    • Daily water demand for energy production
    • Daily water demand for public water supply
    • Daily water demand for livestock
    • Minimum flow required for ecological purposes
    • Map of water regions (intake areas of water; regions of water management)
  • Soil
    • Map Soil texture
    • Map Soil depth
  • Channel geometry
  • Meteorological variables
    • Precipitation rate
    • Average daily temperature
    • Daily potential evaporation rate
  • Leaf area index

LISFLOOD now also uses input on water demand from various economic sectors.

  • Fraction of irrigated area
  • Fraction of paddy rice irrigation
  • Daily water demand for manufacturing industry
  • Daily water demand for energy production
  • Daily water demand for public water supply
  • Daily water demand for livestock
  • Minimum flow required for ecological purposes
  • Map of water regions (intake areas of water; regions of water management)

PARAMETERISATION: LISFLOOD is typically calibrated on a number of parameters influencing infiltration, groundwater fluxes, and river channel roughness. This parameterisation is specific for each sub-river basin.

model outputs

LISFLOOD default output time series

  • RATE VARIABLES AT GAUGES
    • channel discharge
  • NUMERICAL CHECKS
    • cumulative mass balance error
    • cumulative mass balance error, expressed as mm water slice (average over catchment)
    • number of sub-steps needed for gravity-based soil moisture routine

LISFLOOD optional series of output maps

  • Discharge
    • Discharge
    • Water level
  • Meteorological input variables
    • Precipitation
    • Potential reference evapotranspiration
    • Potential evaporation from soil
    • Potential open water evaporation
    • Average daily temperature
  • State variables:
    • Deptyh of water on soil surface
    • Depth of snow cover on soil surface
    • Depth of interception storage
    • Soil moisture content upper layer
    • Soil moisture content lower layer
    • Storage in llower groundwater zone
    • Number of days since last rain
    • Frost index
  • Rate variables:
    • Rain (excluding snow)
    • Snow
    • Snow melt
    • Actual evaporation
    • Actual transpiration
    • Rainfall interception
    • Evaporation of intercepted water
    • Leaf drainage
    • Infiltration
    • preferential (bypass) flow
    • percolation upper to lower soil layer
    • percolation lower soil layer to subsoil
    • surface runoff
    • outflow from upper zone
    • outflow from lower zone
    • total runoff
    • percolation upper to lower zone
    • loss from lower zone

LISFLOOD default state variable output maps. These maps can be used to define the initial conditions of another simulation:

  • waterdepth at last time step
  • channel cross-sectional area at last time step
  • days since last rain variable at last time step
  • snow cover zone A at last time step
  • snow cover zone B at last time step
  • snow cover zone C at last time step
  • frost index at last time step
  • cumulative interception at last time step
  • soil moisture upper layer at last time step
  • soil moisture lower layer at last time step
  • water in lower zone at last time step
  • water in upper zone at last time step

LISFLOOD optional output time series

  • METEOROLOGICAL INPUT VARIABLES 
    • precipitation
    • potential reference evapotranspiration
    • potential evaporation from soil
    • potential open water evaporation
    • average daily temperature
  • STATE VARIABLES 
    • depth of water on soil surface
    • depth of snow cover on soil surface (pixel-average)
    • depth of interception storage
    • soil moisture content upper layer
    • soil moisture content middle layer
    • soil moisture content lower layer
    • storage in upper groundwater zone
    • storage in lower groundwater zone
    • frost index
  • RATE VARIABLES
    • river discharge
    • rain (excluding snow)
    • snow
    • snow melt
    • actual evaporation
    • actual transpiration
    • rainfall interception
    • evaporation of intercepted water
    • leaf drainage
    • infiltration
    • preferential (bypass) flow
    • percolation percolation upper to middle soil layer
    • percolation middle soil layer to lower soil layer
    • groundwater recharge
    • surface runoff
    • outflow from upper zone to surface waters (baseflow)
    • outflow from lower zone to surface waters (baseflow)
    • total runoff (local)
    • percolation from upper to lower groundwater zone
    • water abstraction for irrigation
    • water consumption by irrigation
    • water abstraction for livestock
    • water consumption by for livestock
    • water abstraction for manufacturing industry
    • water consumption by for manufacturing industry
    • water abstraction for public water supply
    • water consumption by public water supply
    • water abstraction for cooling thermal powerplants
    • water consumption by cooling thermal powerplants
    • water inflow to hydropower reservoirs
    • water inflow into lakes and reservoirs

LISFLOOD miscellaneous optional output

  • average inflow into lower zone [mm day-1]
  • average inflow into lower zone [mm day-1]
  • average inflow into lower zone [mm day-1]
  • number of days since last rain
  • water level in river channel

In addition to these, LISFLOOD now also outputs several indicators, such as.

  • Water Exploitation Index (WEI) (abstraction versus availability)
  • Water Exploitation Index Plus (WEI+) (consumption versus availability)
  • Water Demand Index (WD) (demand versus availability)
  • Water Dependency Index (WDI) (dependency of water from upstream regions/countries)
  • Falkenmark index (Fk) (water availability per capita)
  • Soil water stress indicator (RWS)
  • Water security index (WSI)
  • Water sustainability index (WTI)
  • Crop yield (absolute and anomalies) (focussed on water limited growth)

Intended field of application

policy role

The model is designed to support water policies and humanitarian aid, and can be used to support each phase of the policy cycle, from anticipation to evaluation.

The model is in use in the context of water policies, climate impact analysis and humanitarian aid: 

  • Water Policies: Water Resources Assessment Simulations, Flood and Drought simulations, Scenario simulations on the impact of climate change on water resources and its extremes (floods and droughts & water scarcity); Balancing water demand and supply studies within the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem nexus (BLUE2, Blueprint to safeguard Europe’s water resources)
  • Humanitarian Aid: Flood Forecasting (EFAS, see https://www.efas.eu/, GloFas; see https://www.globalfloods.eu/, Drought (EDO, global drought, see https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/edov2/php/index.php?id=1000 ) Water Policies: Water Resources Assessment
  • Climate Impact Studies: The model has also been used in various climate change impact studies (PESETA I, II, III, IV, Blueprint to safeguard Europe’s water resources, BLUE2)
policy areas
  • Climate action 
  • Environment 
  • Humanitarian aid and civil protection 

Model transparency and quality assurance

Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?
YES - Ensemble runs to account for weather and climate uncertainty; parameter uncertainty runs are executed ad-hoc. The model has now been used so frequently for scenario analysis and has been found to react logically/plausible.
Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?
YES - On a routine basis since 1998.
Has the model been published in peer review articles?
YES - The model has been published in peer review literature and has since been used in many peer-reviewed publications; Also the model has been part of several model intercomparisons.
Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?
NO
Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?
YES - On a routine basis since 1998.
To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?
Based on both publicly available and restricted-access sources
Is the full model database as such available to external users?
NO - 98%. Some rainfall data used for Europe are copyright material of memberstate authorities, used with permission.
Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?
YES
Have output datasets been made publicly available?
YES - JRC Water portal, Eurpean Flood Awareness System (EFAS), European Drought Observatory (EDO), Global Flood Alert System (GloFAS), DispaSET, CAPRI.
Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?
YES
Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?
YES - LISFLOOD is an open source model available on Github

Intellectual property rights

Licence type
Free Software licence

application to the impact assessment

Please note that in the annex 4 of the impact assessment report, the general description of the model (available in MIDAS) has to be complemented with the specific information on how the model has been applied in the impact assessment.

See Better Regulation Toolbox, tool #11 Format of the impact assessment report).