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Joint Research Center (JRC)
LAFO

Land Footprint of EU consumption

AgricultureClimateEnvironmentland usesustainabilitytradebioeconomyEnvironmental Impactconsumption

Quality & Transparency

Quality

Model uncertainties

Models are by definition affected by uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?

no
The LAFO model has many layers of input parameters that could lead to uncertainty of the overall result: trade data, yield values, technical coefficients. Although no formal uncertainty analysis has been carried out yet, this is acknowledged in the conclusions of the study (De Laurentiis et al., 2024)

    Sensitivity analysis

    Sensitivity analysis helps identifying the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for the uncertainty in the model responses. Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?

    no
    The LAFO model can deal with sensitivity analysis for many parameters, including trade data, yield values, and technical coefficients. No formal sensitivity analysis has been performed to date although an exploratory activity has started aimed at identifying the main sources of uncertainty.

      Have model results been published in peer-reviewed articles?

      no
      Ongoing activities to publish the results of the model in peer-reviewed articles are taking place.

        Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?

        Please note that this does not refer to the cases when model results were validated by stakeholders.

        yes
        After the publication of the first version of the model (De Laurentiis et al., 2022), three lead experts in the field where asked to perform a peer review of its methodology and results. This led to the identification of key methodological refinements that were then put in place and resulted in the publication of an updated version of the model (De Laurentiis et al., 2024). The latest technical report presents the outcome of the peer review and the resulting identified methodological refinements.

          Model validation

          Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?

          yes
          Three approaches have been used to validate the model results. The first was by comparing the overall estimates with published results of similar models, and is presented in the results section of the report (De Laurentiis et al., 2024). The second was by comparing the land footprint caused by EU consumption in each extra EU country with national data reported in FAO land use statistics, to ensure the first value is lower than the second. The third, was to carry out an internal comparison with the results obtained by a similar model developed by another JRC team for selected commodities.

            Transparency

            To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?

            This may include sources accessible upon subscription and/or payment

            Based on both publicly available and restricted-access sources

            Is the full model database as such available to external users?

            Whether or not it implies a specific procedure or a fee

            yes
            All sources of data used by the model are listed in Annex 2 of the technical report (De Laurentiis et al., 2024).

              Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?

              Note this excludes IA reports.

              yes

              Have output datasets been made publicly available?

              Note this could also imply a specific procedure or a fee.

              yes

              Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?

              For instance: Dashboard, interactive interfaces...

              yes

              Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?

              Note this excludes IA reports.

              yes

              Is there a dedicated public website where information about the model is provided?

              yes

              Is the model code open-source?

              no

              Can the code be accessed upon request?

              yes