GINFORS-E
Source: Commission modelling inventory and knowledge management system (MIDAS)
Date of Report Generation: Mon Apr 22 2024
Dissemination: Public
© European Union, 2024
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Overview
Acronym
GINFORS-E
Full title
Global Interindustry FORecasting System - Energy
Main purpose
GINFORS-E is a global model with country and sector detail for 64 countries and one rest of world region mainly based on OECD and IEA data. It is designed for assessments of economic, energy, climate and environmental policies up to the year 2050.
Summary
GINFORS-E can be used to analyse the macroeconomic effects of a variety of price changes and policies in individual countries in the global context. It is designed for assessments of economic, energy, climate and environmental policies up to the year 2050.
Bilateral trade data are consistently linked to OECD input-output tables. For every country, important macroeconomic variables are determined in a macro model. In addition, energy, and emissions data as well as energy prices are linked to the economic driver variables. It flexibly models trade structures, labour markets, energy intensities and energy source structures, considering price dependencies and the situation in specific countries. Explicitly included are all EU countries, all OECD countries and their major trading partners. GINFORS_E is a macroeconometric model, which builds on Post-Keynesian theory. The parameters used in the model equations are econometrically estimated based on time-series data. Agents have myopic expectations and follow behavioural routines of the past. Markets are not assumed to be cleared. The model solves annually.
The model can be applied for formulation, implementation, and evaluation. It is mainly used for ex ante simulations. This can include the effect of changed framework data (international oil prices), policy measures (carbon prices), technological changes (renewable energy deployment) or structural change (e-mobility). It is enlarged towards energy technology goods and bioeconomy. However, the database can also be used to determine past and current parameters (consumption-based emissions).
Model categories
AgricultureClimateEconomyEnvironmentEnergy
Model keywords
EnergyEnvironmentclimate changebioeconomyeconomyglobal coverage
Model homepage
https://www.gws-os.com/de/index.php/energy-and-climate/models/model-details/ginfors-e.html
Ownership and Licence
Ownership
Third-party ownership (commercial companies, Member States, other organisations, …)
Ownership details
Licence type
Non-Free Software licence
The license has one or more of the following restrictions: it prohibits creation of derivative works; it prohibits commercial use; it obliges to share the licensed or derivative works on the same conditions.
Details
Structure and approach
The GINFORS-E (global inter-industry forecasting system – energy) model is a bilateral world trade model based on OECD data, which consistently and coherently models exports and imports of 25 goods groups for 64 countries and one ‘rest of the world' region. It incorporates a macro-model, consisting of exports and imports, other core components of final demand (private and public sector consumption and investment), markets for goods and the labour market, for each country. The models are also divided into 36 goods categories in accordance with the latest OECD internationally harmonised input-output (IO) tables. For every country OECD bilateral trade data on industry level is linked to the IO tables. For EU countries, UK and Norway transport is further distinguished in land, water, air plus warehousing and support activities based on the WIOD World Input-Output Database. These variables are reported for 40 industries.
GINFORS-E can be used to analyse the macroeconomic effects of a variety of price changes and policies in individual countries. It flexibly models trade structures, labour markets, energy intensities and energy source structures, taking into account price dependencies and the situation in specific countries. The use of intermediate inputs, domestic and imported, labour demand and foreign trade are modelled price dependent. Changes in prices due to tax adjustments will be accounted for. The parameters used in the model equations are econometrically estimated (OLS) on the basis of time-series data.
Production prices of industries are driven by unit costs. If prices of electricity in the steel industry increase, producer prices will increase according to their electricity price share. Higher producer prices will influence global competitiveness of the respective industry and other downstream production (e.g. in the automotive industry).
Important behavioural parameters of the model are estimated econometrically, and different specifications of the functions are tested against each other, which gives the model an empirical validation. An additional confirmation of the model structure as a whole is given by the convergence property of the solution which has to be fulfilled on a yearly basis. The econometric estimations build on times series from OECD, UN, IMF and IEA from 1990 to 2000 onwards.
Each national model is linked to an energy model, which determines energy conversion, energy generation and final demand for energy for 19 energy sources disaggregated by economic sector. The model considers technological trends and price dependencies.
Input and parametrization
The model is solved simultaneously year after year. Almost all model variables are endogenously determined via identity or behavioural equations. Behavioural variables are econometrically estimated as far as possible. Only a few variables, such as population development and international energy prices, are exogenously specified based on international projections or kept constant such as tax rates.
Data for 64 countries plus one region for rest of world include:
- Macroeconomic data as GDP and components (consumption, investment, exports, imports), in constant and current prices plus deflators
- Bilateral trade by 33 product groups
- Population, employment, unemployment, wages
- Input-Output tables (https://www.oecd.org/sti/ind/input-outputtables.htm)
- Sector data for 36 industries: output in constant and current prices, value added, employment, and final demand
- Energy balances
- CO2 emissions by sector and fuel, other GHG emissions
- Energy prices by user and fuel, including tax rates (VAT, energy)
- Carbon prices
Main output
Due to the modelling approach, all input variables determined ex-ante by the model can also be output variables. The most important of these are macroeconomic indicators on national level, as well as corresponding sector variables, which are calculated for all countries considered for all years up to 2050. The most important among them are:
- GDP and its components (household consumption, government consumption, investment, exports, imports)
- Employment, production, value added and prices on sector level
- International trade flows by product group, origin and destination
- Energy demand by sector and fuel, energy prices
- CO2 emissions by sector and fuel
The model is flexible to reflect, for example, different uses of CO2 price revenues to reduce labour costs, increase (specific) government spending, or reduce government debt. Various other policy measures can also be mapped quite easily.
Spatial & Temporal extent
The output has the following spatial-temporal resolution and extent:
Parameter | Description |
---|---|
Spatial extent / country coverage | EU Member states 27ASEAN countriesOECD countriesNAFTA countriesBRICS countriesIcelandNorwaySwitzerlandUnited KingdomRussiaTurkeyUnited StatesJapanChinaAustraliaCanadaChileIsraelNew ZealandMexicoArgentinaBrazilColombiaPeruCosta RicaMoroccoTunisiaSouth AfricaHong KongSouth KoreaCambodiaIndonesiaMalaysiaPhilippinesSingaporeThailandVietnamIndiaKazakhstanSaudi Arabia |
World trade model representing 64 countries, and one ‘rest of the world' region. Explicitly included are all EU countries, all OECD countries and their major trading partners. | |
Spatial resolution | National |
Temporal extent | Short-term (from 1 to 5 years)Medium-term (5 to 15 years)Long-term (more than 15 years) |
Temporal resolution | Years |
Quality & Transparency
Quality
Model uncertainties
Models are by definition affected by uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?
- response
- yes
- details
- The model can be run multiple times to test sensitivity of model properties including key assumptions.
- url
Sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity analysis helps identifying the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for the uncertainty in the model responses. Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?
- response
- yes
- details
- Due to the large number of variables per country and sector and the size of the result data set, this is not systematically possible. However, short model runtimes of about one minute allow extensive testing of individual important specifications and new model parts.
- url
Have model results been published in peer-reviewed articles?
- response
- yes
- details
- Several peer-reviewed publications have been made by the developers of the model. A comprehensive model description can be found most recently in Lutz et al. (2010). An updated model description publication is planned by 2022. Applications are published in Lutz et al. (2012), Lutz, Meyer 2009a and b), Wiebe, Lutz (2016), and Wiebe et al. (2016).
- url
Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?
Please note that this does not refer to the cases when model results were validated by stakeholders.
- response
- no
- details
- url
Model validation
Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?
- response
- yes
- details
- Simulation properties of the model are compared with results of other similar models such as E3ME, GTAP-E and GEM-E3.
- url
Transparency
To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?
This may include sources accessible upon subscription and/or payment
- response
- Entirely based on publicly available sources
Is the full model database as such available to external users?
Whether or not it implies a specific procedure or a fee
- response
- no
- details
- Data are publicly available sources such as OECD (input-output tables, bilateral trade data), IEA (energy balances, energy prices, CO2 emissions), and other sources such as IMF, UN, World Bank, Eurostat.
- url
Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?
Note this excludes IA reports.
- response
- yes
- details
Have output datasets been made publicly available?
Note this could also imply a specific procedure or a fee.
- response
- no
- details
- Depending on contract.
- url
Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?
For instance: Dashboard, interactive interfaces...
- response
- no
- details
- url
Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?
Note this excludes IA reports.
- response
- no
- details
Is there a dedicated public website where information about the model is provided?
- response
- yes
Is the model code open-source?
- response
- no
- details
Can the code be accessed upon request?
- response
- no
- details
The model’s policy relevance and intended role in the policy cycle
The model is designed to contribute to the following policy areas
- Agriculture and rural development
- Business and industry
- Climate action
- Competition
- Economy, finance and the euro
- Employment and social affairs
- Energy
- Environment
- EU enlargement
- International cooperation and development
- Trade
- Transport
The model is designed to contribute to the following phases of the policy cycle
- Evaluation – such as ex-post evaluation
- Formulation – such as ex-ante Impact Assessments
- Implementation – this also includes monitoring
The model’s potential
Although GINFORS-E can be used for forecasting, the model is mainly used for evaluating the impacts of policy scenarios, changes in assumptions such as international energy prices or another change to model variables. The model can be enlarged to include more detail on interesting datasets, currently e.g. on the bioeconomy and energy technology goods.
The analysis is mainly forward looking (ex-ante), but can also inform implementation or evaluate previous developments ex-post.
Previous use of the model in ex-ante impact assessments of the European Commission
Use of the model in ex-ante impact assessments since July 2017.
2021SWD/2021/641 final
Impact assessment accompanying the document Proposal for a Council Directive: restructuring the Union framework for the taxation of energy products and electricity (recast)
- Lead by
- TAXUD
- Run by
- RICARDO
- Contribution role
- baseline and assessment of policy options
- Contribution details
The model helped to assess the following impacts:
- Affects on individual Member States
- EU Exports & imports
- Cost of doing business
- Business' capacity to innovate
- Market share & advantages in international context
- Free movement of goods, services, capital and workers
- Competition
- Innovation for productivity/resource efficiency
- Budgetary consequences for public authorities
- Consumer's ability to benefit from the internal market or to access goods and services from outside the EU
- Prices, quality, availability or choice of consumer goods and services
- Significant effects on sectors
- Impact on regions
- Disproportionately affected region or sector
- Goods traded with developing countries
- Economic growth and employment
- Investments and functioning of markets
- Macro-economic stabilisation
- Impact on jobs
- Impact on jobs in specific sectors, professions, regions or countries
- Indirect effects on employment levels
- Wages, labour costs or wage setting mechanisms
- Emission of greenhouse gases
- Emissions of acidifying, eutrophying, photochemical or harmful air pollutants
- Sustainable production and consumption
- Relative prices of environmental friendly and unfriendly products
- Polution by businesses
- Environment in third countries
- Energy intensity of the economy
- Fuel mix used in energy production
- Demand for transport
- Vehicle emissions
- Energy and fuel consumption
2021SWD/2021/25 final
Impact assessment accompanying the document Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions: Forging a climate-resilient Europe - The new EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change
- Lead by
- CLIMA
- Run by
- Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung
- Contribution role
- baseline and assessment of policy options
- Contribution details
The model helped to assess the following impacts:
- EU Exports & imports
- Investment flows & trade in services
- Competition
- Economic growth and employment
- Impact on jobs
- Impact on jobs in specific sectors, professions, regions or countries