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Joint Research Center (JRC)
FS-MFA

Food System Material Flow Analysis model

AgricultureClimateEconomyEnvironmentfood wastefood lossesby-productsmaterial flow analysisfood supply chainfood systems circularity

Quality & Transparency

Quality

Model uncertainties

Models are by definition affected by uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?

no
This model has many layers of input parameters that could lead to uncertainty of the overall result: trade data, production data, technical coefficients. This is acknowledged when presenting the results of the model (De Laurentiis et al., 2024)

    Sensitivity analysis

    Sensitivity analysis helps identifying the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for the uncertainty in the model responses. Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?

    no
    This model can deal with sensitivity analysis for many parameters, including trade data, production data, and technical coefficients. No formal sensitivity analysis has been performed to date.

      Have model results been published in peer-reviewed articles?

      yes

        Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?

        Please note that this does not refer to the cases when model results were validated by stakeholders.

        no

          Model validation

          Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?

          yes
          The model was validated by comparing one of its outputs, the quantities of each food product consumed by an average citizen in a given country, with data collected via food consumption surveys. This is presented in the results section of the report (De Laurentiis et al., 2024).

            Transparency

            To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?

            This may include sources accessible upon subscription and/or payment

            Based on both publicly available and restricted-access sources

            Is the full model database as such available to external users?

            Whether or not it implies a specific procedure or a fee

            yes
            All sources of data used by the model are listed in Annex 1 and Annex 2 of the technical report (De Laurentiis et al., 2024).

              Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?

              Note this excludes IA reports.

              yes

              Have output datasets been made publicly available?

              Note this could also imply a specific procedure or a fee.

              yes

              Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?

              For instance: Dashboard, interactive interfaces...

              yes

              Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?

              Note this excludes IA reports.

              yes

              Is there a dedicated public website where information about the model is provided?

              yes

              Is the model code open-source?

              no

              Can the code be accessed upon request?

              yes