Analysis of Fluorinated greenhouse gases

The model AnaFgas (Analysis of Fluorinated greenhouse gases) is a bottom-up stock model to derive demand and emission scenarios for F-gases in relevant sectors and sub-sectors for the EU27+UK Member States. It models demand for and emissions of HFCs, PFCs and SF6 for the period 2000 to 2050 based on market data and estimates of the quantity of equipment or products sold each year containing these substances, and the amount of substances required in the EU to manufacture and/or maintain equipment and products over time.

All emission and demand estimates are derived from bottom-up approaches, i.e. by estimating demand and emissions per sector through the use of underlying driving factors. These include annual changes in equipment stock, composition and charge of the equipment, leakage during equipment lifetime and during disposal. Some of these components are driven by other factors such as population development, GDP growth or technological changes. Based on these drivers, annual emissions and banks as well as use can be calculated for each year, sub sector and EU Member State.

AnaFgas makes use of market information to build an inventory of the in-use stocks of the equipment in each of the end-uses in each country. This includes the percentage of the equipment stock that contains each F-gas. These modelled stock inventories are maintained through the annual addition of new equipment/new F-gas quantities and the retirement of equipment after an appropriate number of years. Annual leak rates, servicing emissions, and disposal emissions are estimated for each of the end-uses.

The AnaFgas cost module is based on model installations per sector and respective assumptions investment and operating expenditures for available options of used F-gases or F-gas alternatives. Specific cost at model installation level can be recalculated into total sectoral cost in the EU27+UK AnaFgas scope by means of AnaFgas data on equipment stocks.

AnaFgas can be used to quantify the effects and costs of policy interventions to reduce emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases by comparing different scenarios (e.g. policy options, baseline and counterfactual).

AnaFgas derives quantities of F-gases used and emitted based on stock models of equipment in the EU27 and, optionally, the EU27+UK. The output of the model consists of two metrics, demand and emissions, that are calculated annually for the years between 2000 and 2050.

Demand is the sum of quantities of F-gases used in the initial first filling of equipment and the re-filling in the servicing of equipment during the lifetime. Emissions are the sum of emissions of F-gases during the lifetime of equipment (lifetime emissions) and F-gases that are released to the atmosphere during disposal of old equipment (disposal emissions).

To derive these quantities, the model is supplied with detailed annual stock data (mostly based on annual sales, together with disposal of equipment after a technology-specific lifetime). Sector-specific charge sizes allow for a calculation of yearly F-gas quantities, needed to supply all new and existing equipment (demand), while sector-specific emission rates allow for a calculation of yearly F-gas emissions, occurring from the use of equipment and its disposal (emissions).

AnaFgas calculates demand and emissions individually for 33 different F-gases and 12 different blends, including saturated and unsaturated HFCs, PFCs and SF6. F-gases enter the model by assumptions regarding the market share/penetration for each F-gas or blend in new equipment, for each year. F-gases in blends are individually accounted for in the calculation of demand and emissions.

For the projections of activity data including charges and F-gas split, and emission factors until 2050, AnaFgas generally distinguishes between three different time periods:

• Near past (5-10 years) is calculated by adjusting the stock model using data reported under Article 19 of the F-gas Regulation (reporting on supply of F-gases) and the National Inventory Reports (NIRs) submitted by the EU under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, reporting on emissions and partially on first fill quantities). It must be noted, however, that the reported data is not equivalent to the modelled metrics. Under the F-gas Regulation, supply of F-gases is reported, which does not directly translate to demand. Further, the NIRs only contain data based on estimates that are not frequently changed to reflect market developments. Thus, deviations between the reported and modelled data are to be expected.
• Near future (5-10 years) is modelled on known policies and measures, technological changes, substitution patterns and expected changes in use patterns.
• Distant future (until 2050) is based on a continuation of trends observed, external projections of driving forces such as GDP and population and follows a business-as-usual trend as the model does not consider changes in technologies which are likely to happen within such a long timeframe.

In the model structure of AnaFgas, it is assumed that emissions from leakage during a year are replaced in the same year, irrespective of the age of the equipment. In reality, it can be assumed that leakage rates increase over the course of the lifetime of equipment. AnaFgas uses the average leakage rate over the entire lifetime of equipment for each year. This can lead to deviations from observed emissions for specific years but should even out when looking at longer time periods.

For projections in the distant future, results are necessarily uncertain, since novel developments in technology or other areas cannot be foreseen for such an extended time period.

The AnaFgas cost module is based on model installations per sector and respective assumptions investment and operating expenditures for available options of used F-gases or F-gas alternatives. Specific cost at model installation level can be recalculated into total sectoral cost in the EU27+UK AnaFgas scope by means of AnaFgas data on equipment stocks.

Key inputs used for the model.

• Lifetime emission rates
• Disposal emission rates
• Sales of equipment
• Disposal of equipment
• Market penetration rate of F-gases and blends in new equipment
• Prices for F-gases and their alternatives
• Investment cost for model installations
• Operating cost for model installations (energy and servicing)