VM model
Source: Commission modelling inventory and knowledge management system (MIDAS)
Date of Report Generation: Thu Mar 06 2025
Dissemination: Public
© European Union, 2025
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Overview
Acronym
VM model
Full title
VM stock and policy scenario model
Main purpose
To model environmental and socio-economic impacts of environmental product policy options, as part of preparatory and impact assessment studies for ecodesign and energy labelling and similar end-use instruments.
Summary
The VM stock and policy scenario model in the current form has been used for approximately 5 years for preparatory studies, review studies and impact assessments. These include the technical assistance carried out for amended ecodesign requirements for external power supplies (ENER) and new ecodesign requirements for servers and data storage products (GROW).
The model is based on previous VM models, which have been further developed and optimised.
It is based on the MEErP methodology (https://ec.europa.eu/growth/industry/sustainability/ecodesign_en) and uses also the modelling in the EcoReport Tool with adaptation where necessary, mainly regarding the calculation of the Life Cycle Costs, which are included in the VM stock and policy scenario model, and regarding the future energy price development, where data from the Commission based on the PRIMES model have been used as agreed with ENER.
The main objective of the model is to assess the impact of future policy scenario options in a structured and transparent manner in spite of assessing several base cases and policy options in order to be able to select the preferred option.
All VM preparatory and review studies carried out over the last 5 years use the model for the scenario analysis (Task 7 of the MEErP).
Model categories
EnvironmentEnergy
Model keywords
stock modelsustainable consumptionecomodellingeco-designenergy label
Model homepage
Ownership and Licence
Ownership
Third-party ownership (commercial companies, Member States, other organisations, …)
Ownership details
Licence type
Non-Free Software licence
The license has one or more of the following restrictions: it prohibits creation of derivative works; it prohibits commercial use; it obliges to share the licensed or derivative works on the same conditions.
Details
Structure and approach
The VM stock and policy scenario model models the technical potential and associated socio-economic impacts for a variety of EU policy options including a baseline (no action) regarding resource efficiency improvement and emission abatement (including for greenhouse gases) for consumer and professional products. The resulting EU level scenarios typically cover a 1990 to 2050 time horizon.
The main modules in the model are:
- Stock model: It contains the established base cases and sales data and average lifetimes from sources and/or estimates. The sales data will be extrapolated to cover historical years (typically from 1990, but may be earlier) and future years (typically to 2050). From the sales data and the average lifetimes, the stock for all base cases is calculated using a normal distribution of product lifetimes.
- Scenario options and assumptions: It contains the scenario options with the requirements to be analysed and compared with the baseline scenario (no action i.e. Business As Usual (BAU))
- Scenario development: It contains the modelling of each scenario regarding impact on sales, energy, environment, economy and employment. The scenario requirements are in most cases very specific to the products assessed and this module therefore needs to be adapted to these requirements. For each scenario, penetration rates for products placed on the market in the various energy and environmental performance classes are established the impact assessed in the model.
- EcoReport Tool: The EcoReport Tool made available by the European Commission calculates the lifecycle impact (production, distribution, use and end of life) on material use and environmental impact based on the bill of materials (BOM) for one product unit and the total sales. The EcoReport Tool is used for each scenario and the net impact can be calculated as the difference between a policy scenario and the baseline scenario.
The model follows the Methodology for Ecodesign of Energy-related Products (MEErP) for preparatory and review studies in Ecodesign, which includes the data structure from the EcoReport Tool (https://ec.europa.eu/growth/industry/sustainability/ecodesign_en) as well as calculation procedures for the assessment of environmental and socio-economic impacts etc. It takes into account the relevant requirements of the European Commission’s Better Regulation impact assessment guidelines [1]. Generic (default) input parameters on historical and future rates are periodically updated and taken as much as possible from EU-related sources: (a) Eurostat for historical energy rates, conventions on calorific values per fuel, etc. (b) EEA (https://www.eea.europa.eu/ ) for air pollution conversion factors (NOx, SO2, PM, etc.), GWP-100 factors for electricity production (reworked), conversions following UNFCC (c) Using latest PRIMES reference scenario for energy price projections, (d) Energy Efficiency Directive amendment (EU)2018/2002. OJ L 328, 21.12.2018 used for primary energy factor (2.1 instead of 2.5 at transition).
Product-specific inputs are taken typically from ecodesign and energy labelling preparatory and review studies. The model is periodically updated following the results of new preparatory, review and IA studies.
For some product groups, model variants exist to handle product-specific analysis needs. Typically these variants contain additions to derive the input required by the main methodology, i.e. to derive average loads or efficiencies from detailed distributions, to correctly manage the shift in sales from less to more efficient base cases, to relate product sales to the stock of buildings and dwellings, to include more complex lifetime-distributions in the stock calculations, to simulate more detailed price-efficiency relationships, to add energy effects of related products, etc.
[1] https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/better-regulation-guidelines-impact-assessment.pdf and https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/better-regulation-guidelines-evaluation-fitness-checks.pdf
Input and parametrization
Generic input parameters include:
- Historical energy prices, typically from Eurostat
- Future energy prices diversified per usage sector (residential, tertiary, industry, other) and type of energy, provided by the Commission
- Electricity to primary energy conversion coefficient (CC=1/PEF)
- Global warming potential for energy sources (GWP-100)
- Rates (EUR/unit) for consumables (water, paper/filters/ detergents/toner/electrodes/etc. as appropriate)
- Average maintenance/repair costs (EUR/year)
- Business-sector-specific parameters: typical revenue-split OEM/industry/ wholesale/ retail/ installer/ VAT, average revenue per direct job.
For each new product analysed, the inputs are given for the EU (currently the EU27-2020) and the period 1990-2050 and adapted to the specific product and policy option analysed:
- Definition of product and product-subtypes (‘Base Cases’)
- Unit sales per base case, EU 1990-2050
- Acquisition costs (in fixed euros, i.e. inflation-corrected for the reference year)
- Service life of the product (average lifetime or lifetime array where needed)
- Unit load, average user demand for product output
- Unit environmental impact (energy efficiency, GHG, NOx, CO, PM emissions) of average new products sold per year over the 1990-2050 period
- Annual unit consumable consumption (e.g. water, paper) and maintenance costs
- Improvement environmental impact and associated costs, given as arrays of values for inter- and extrapolation, at least for baseline, Least Life Cycle Cost (LLCC) and Best Available Technology (BAT) products for the base cases assessed
- Learning curve effect (percentage acquisition cost reduction per year after implementing policy option, up to previous level)
- Penetration rates of environmentally optimised products for each year assessed
Main output
- Scenarios: the BAU (‘Business-As-Usual’) and a number of ECO scenarios
- Derived variables and constants: Stock (volume installed), environmental impacts of stock (energy, emissions), installation, maintenance, auxiliary inputs and end-of-life unit costs
- Consumer expenditure: Total acquisition and running costs and LCC (life cycle costs)
- Business revenue: Total turnover for industry, wholesale, retail, and installation sectors
- Social parameters: Direct employment (number of jobs)
Spatial & Temporal extent
The output has the following spatial-temporal resolution and extent:
| Parameter | Description |
|---|---|
| Spatial extent / country coverage | EU Member states 27 |
| Spatial resolution | World-regions (supranational)Entity |
| Product | |
| Temporal extent | Long-term (more than 15 years) |
| Up to 2050 | |
| Temporal resolution | Years |
Quality & Transparency
Quality
Model uncertainties
Models are by definition affected by uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?
- response
- yes
- details
- To a limited extent. Most uncertainty is typically not in the model but in the input data. At the low aggregation level of commercial, economic and environmental data for consumer and professional products the uncertainty is often high and the model is typically used to reach consensus amongst stakeholders of what are acceptable data.
- url
Sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity analysis helps identifying the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for the uncertainty in the model responses. Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?
- response
- yes
- details
- As mentioned, sensitivity analyses with the model are used in preparatory studies and impact assessments to reach consensus. In the final reporting, sensitivity analysis may also be presented to give policy makers an impression of the uncertainty.
- url
Have model results been published in peer-reviewed articles?
- response
- no
- details
- url
Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?
Please note that this does not refer to the cases when model results were validated by stakeholders.
- response
- no
- details
- url
Model validation
Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?
- response
- yes
- details
- The model has undergone internal review by Viegand Maagøe staff where validations with other sources has been done as much as possible including by industry, experts, stakeholders etc.
- url
Transparency
To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?
This may include sources accessible upon subscription and/or payment
- response
- Entirely based on publicly available sources
Is the full model database as such available to external users?
Whether or not it implies a specific procedure or a fee
- response
- no
- details
- Data are directly visible in the model and published in the preparatory and review studies usually with their own public project website, where intermediate and final results (data inputs in the model) are given. The final reports of these studies stay available on the Commission website for the general public.
- url
Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?
Note this excludes IA reports.
- response
- no
- details
Have output datasets been made publicly available?
Note this could also imply a specific procedure or a fee.
- response
- no
- details
- Follows the same availability rules as IAs from the Commission.
- url
Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?
For instance: Dashboard, interactive interfaces...
- response
- no
- details
- url
Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?
Note this excludes IA reports.
- response
- no
- details
- Data and calculations are directly visible in the model
Is there a dedicated public website where information about the model is provided?
- response
- no
- details
- url
Is the model code open-source?
- response
- no
- details
Can the code be accessed upon request?
- response
- yes
- details
The model’s policy relevance and intended role in the policy cycle
The model is designed to contribute to the following policy areas
- Business and industry
- Consumers
- Energy
- Environment
The model is designed to contribute to the following phases of the policy cycle
- Evaluation – such as ex-post evaluation
- Formulation – such as ex-ante Impact Assessments
The model’s potential
The model is designed for use in policy formulation, specifically for economic and technical characterisation of policy options, and for impact assessments. The model can also be used (after a review study) for post evaluation of the impacts of policies.
Impact types that can be assessed with the models include:
Environmental impacts
- Energy efficiency (energy use per unit of performance)
- Energy consumption
- GHG emissions
- Other air pollution (NOx)
Economic impacts
- Sales (units, price)
- Stock (units)
- Acquisition costs
- Running costs
- Consumer expenditure
- Revenues market actors
Social impacts
- Employment (jobs)
Previous use of the model in ex-ante impact assessments of the European Commission
Use of the model in ex-ante impact assessments since July 2017.
2019SWD/2019/0345 final
Impact assessment accompanying the document Commission Regulation laying down: ecodesign requirements for external power supplies pursuant to Directive 2009/125/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council repealing Commission Regulation (EC) No 278/200
- Lead by
- ENER
- Run by
- Viegand Maagøe A/S
- Contribution role
- baseline and assessment of policy options
- Contribution details
The model helped to assess the following impacts:
- Cost/availability of essential inputs (raw materials, machinery, labour, energy, ..)
- Market & marketing
- Opening/closing down of business
- Investment flows & trade in services
- Cost of doing business
- Stimulation of research and development
- Markets for Innovation
- Budgetary consequences for public authorities
- Prices, quality, availability or choice of consumer goods and services
- Safety or sustainability of consumer goods and services
- EU foreign policy and EU development policy
- Economic growth and employment
- Impact on jobs
- Impact on jobs in specific sectors, professions, regions or countries
- Households income and at risk of poverty rates
- Health and safety of individuals/populations
- Health risks due to substances harmful to the natural environment
- Health due to changes waste disposal
- Emission of greenhouse gases
- Emission of ozone-depleting substances
- Emissions of acidifying, eutrophying, photochemical or harmful air pollutants
- Availability or quality of Fresh- or ground water
- Waste production, treatment, disposal or recycling
- Sustainable production and consumption
- Relative prices of environmental friendly and unfriendly products
- Energy intensity of the economy
2019SWD/2019/0106 final
Impact assessment accompanying the document Commission Regulation laying down: ecodesign requirements for servers and data storage products pursuant to Directive 2009/125/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and amending Commission Regulation (EU) N°617/2013
- Lead by
- GROW
- Run by
- Viegand Maagøe A/S
- Contribution role
- baseline and assessment of policy options
- Contribution details
The model helped to assess the following impacts:
- Cost/availability of essential inputs (raw materials, machinery, labour, energy, ..)
- Market & marketing
- Opening/closing down of business
- Investment flows & trade in services
- Cost of doing business
- Stimulation of research and development
- Markets for Innovation
- Budgetary consequences for public authorities
- Prices, quality, availability or choice of consumer goods and services
- Safety or sustainability of consumer goods and services
- EU foreign policy and EU development policy
- Economic growth and employment
- Impact on jobs
- Impact on jobs in specific sectors, professions, regions or countries
- Households income and at risk of poverty rates
- Health and safety of individuals/populations
- Health risks due to substances harmful to the natural environment
- Health due to changes waste disposal
- Emission of greenhouse gases
- Emission of ozone-depleting substances
- Emissions of acidifying, eutrophying, photochemical or harmful air pollutants
- Availability or quality of Fresh- or ground water
- Waste production, treatment, disposal or recycling
- Sustainable production and consumption
- Relative prices of environmental friendly and unfriendly products
- Energy intensity of the economy