TRI-STOCK-CHARGER
Source: Commission modelling inventory and knowledge management system (MIDAS)
Date of Report Generation: Thu Mar 06 2025
Dissemination: Public
© European Union, 2025
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Overview
Acronym
TRI-STOCK-CHARGER
Full title
Trinomics stock model for chargers of mobile phones and other small devices
Main purpose
To model the stock of chargers in the EU to support the impact assessment of policy options to achieve unbundling of chargers from mobile phones.
Summary
The model was designed by Trinomics in order to simulate the stock of chargers for mobile phones and other small devices for the purpose of assessing the impact of policy measures which affect these chargers. The model addresses the two main charger components, the External Power Supply (EPS) and the (detachable) cable, and differentiates multiple versions of these based on the different power, receptacle and connector types. It covers the EU in aggregate for the period 2010-2030.
The model is a stock-flow model, which models inflows to the model based on chargers provided with sales of mobile phones and other devices, and chargers purchased separately. It also models outflows (disposals) of chargers based on assumptions of disposal rates, and also the method of disposal. These quantified flows are used to calculate the main outputs, of consumer cost, producer revenues and environmental impacts.
The model can be useful across the policy cycle, ex-ante, interim and ex-post to assess developments in the market, their impact, and the impact of potential policy options.
Model categories
Οther
Model keywords
emissionssmartphoneschargerscablesexternal power supplyESPUSBlightningstock
Model homepage
Ownership and Licence
Ownership
EU ownership (European Commission)
Ownership details
Licence type
Non-Free Software licence
The license has one or more of the following restrictions: it prohibits creation of derivative works; it prohibits commercial use; it obliges to share the licensed or derivative works on the same conditions.
Details
Structure and approach
The model is a stock-flow model, which models inflows to the model based on chargers provided with sales of mobile phones and other devices, and chargers purchased separately. It also models outflows (disposals) of chargers based on assumptions of disposal rates, and also the method of disposal. These quantified flows are used to calculate the main outputs, of consumer cost, producer revenues and environmental impacts.
The model provides:
- A comparison sheet – which compiles the main results per policy option to generate tables and figures that can be used for the Impact Assessment report
- Sheets per device type (Smartphones, Standalone, Other_devices) where calculations and assumptions for the charger inflows associated with these devices are included for the baseline and all policy options
- Charger_adds – an interim calculation sheet which compiles per policy option the charger additions from all selected devices, the percentages for which are used in the disposal calculations
- Summary_Figs – various supporting graphical outputs
- Charger profiles – sheet where assumptions on prices, emissions and materials, per charger type, and over time are kept
- Disposals – sheet which includes the main assumptions for the modelling of disposals
- Stock sheets – one per policy option, brings the inflows, removes the outflows, calculates the stock
- Impact sheets – one per policy option, these sheets multiply the flows from the stock sheet with information from the charger profiles to calculate impacts
- Country estimates – supporting data on population
- SBSdata – data from SBS to support Economic impact calculations
- BoM Chargers – Bill of Materials data for chargers
Input and parametrization
- Smartphone sales data (from commercial sources)
- Charger sales data (from PRODCOM)
- Charger profiles (cost, prices, weight, composition, emissions – data from various sources)
Main output
- GHG emissions
- Material use
- E-waste
- E-waste treatment
- E-waste recycling
- Cost to consumers
- Benefit (revenue) for manufacturers and wholesalers
- Benefit for EU Manufacturers
- Manufacturing jobs in EU
- Benefit for distributors and retailers
- Wholesaler/retailer jobs in EU
- Chargers sales / disposals – per type
Additional outputs could be added if associated impacts per charger type are defined, e.g. other environmental impacts.
Spatial & Temporal extent
The output has the following spatial-temporal resolution and extent:
| Parameter | Description |
|---|---|
| Spatial extent / country coverage | EU Member states 27 |
| Spatial resolution | World-regions (supranational) |
| Temporal extent | Medium-term (5 to 15 years)Long-term (more than 15 years) |
| Temporal resolution | Years |
Quality & Transparency
Quality
Model uncertainties
Models are by definition affected by uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?
- response
- no
- details
- Key variables are the main source of uncertainty. These have been sensitivity tested (see below). Scenario definition for charger disposal (10% of stock per year) is a further key assumption. The model outputs based on these assumptions are validated by consumer survey responses.
- url
Sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity analysis helps identifying the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for the uncertainty in the model responses. Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?
- response
- yes
- details
- Key variables (e.g. charger profiles, sales) have been sensitivity checked.
- url
Have model results been published in peer-reviewed articles?
- response
- no
- details
- The model is not peer reviewed. Internal quality assurance is in place.
- url
Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?
Please note that this does not refer to the cases when model results were validated by stakeholders.
- response
- no
- details
- url
Model validation
Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?
- response
- no
- details
- Current stock size is validated with consumer survey data. For the other outputs this is not possible, as not enough time has elapsed.
- url
Transparency
To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?
This may include sources accessible upon subscription and/or payment
- response
- Based on both publicly available and restricted-access sources
Is the full model database as such available to external users?
Whether or not it implies a specific procedure or a fee
- response
- no
- details
- Processed data is public, but some key input data on mobile phone sales and their split by manufacturer/model type is confidential commercial data purchased for the purpose of the analysis. This is included only in aggregate form in the model.
- url
Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?
Note this excludes IA reports.
- response
- yes
- details
Have output datasets been made publicly available?
Note this could also imply a specific procedure or a fee.
- response
- no
- details
- Model outputs are made publicly available in IA reports. Outputs can be made available in agreement with DG GROW.
- url
Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?
For instance: Dashboard, interactive interfaces...
- response
- no
- details
- url
Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?
Note this excludes IA reports.
- response
- no
- details
- No public documentation of the model is available. However, its elements are explained within the model and in the Annexes to the IA report.
Is there a dedicated public website where information about the model is provided?
- response
- no
- details
- url
Is the model code open-source?
- response
- no
- details
Can the code be accessed upon request?
- response
- yes
- details
The model’s policy relevance and intended role in the policy cycle
The model is designed to contribute to the following policy areas
- Business and industry
- Climate action
- Consumers
- Energy
- Environment
The model is designed to contribute to the following phases of the policy cycle
- Evaluation – such as ex-post evaluation
- Formulation – such as ex-ante Impact Assessments
- Implementation – this also includes monitoring
The model’s potential
The model is tailored to chargers for mobile phones and other small devices but could be adapted to be applied to any product, which could be valuable across a range of product policies such as Ecodesign, Energy Labelling, Ecolabel, GPP. It’s main purpose is to simulate the markets (flows) and stock of a particular product which lends itself primarily to policy formulation, i.e. establishing a baseline and policy options and their impacts. It could also be used to assist in the monitoring of implementation or ex-post evaluation of policies.
Previous use of the model in ex-ante impact assessments of the European Commission
Use of the model in ex-ante impact assessments since July 2017.
2021SWD/2021/245 final
Impact assessment accompanying the document Proposal for a Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council: amending Directive 2014/53/EU on the harmonisation of the laws of the Member States relating to the making available on the market of radio equipment
- Lead by
- GROW
- Run by
- Trinomics B.V.
- Contribution role
- baseline and assessment of policy options (indirect)
- Contribution details
- Documented in study :
The model helped to assess the following impacts:
- Prices, quality, availability or choice of consumer goods and services
- Economic growth and employment
- Impact on jobs
- Emission of greenhouse gases
- Waste production, treatment, disposal or recycling
- Use of non-renewable resources