Annex 4 analytical methods

model description

general description

acronym: TRI-STOCK-CHARGER

name: Trinomics stock model for chargers of mobile phones and other small devices

main purpose: To model the stock of chargers in the EU to support the impact assessment of policy options to achieve unbundling of chargers from mobile phones.

homepage: —

Developer and its nature

ownership: EU ownership (European Commission)

ownership additional info: —

is the model code open-source?: NO

Model structure and approach with any key assumptions, limitations and simplifications

details on model structure and approach

The model is a stock-flow model, which models inflows to the model based on chargers provided with sales of mobile phones and other devices, and chargers purchased separately. It also models outflows (disposals) of chargers based on assumptions of disposal rates, and also the method of disposal. These quantified flows are used to calculate the main outputs, of consumer cost, producer revenues and environmental impacts.

The model provides:

A comparison sheet – which compiles the main results per policy option to generate tables and figures that can be used for the Impact Assessment report
Sheets per device type (Smartphones, Standalone, Other_devices) where calculations and assumptions for the charger inflows associated with these devices are included for the baseline and all policy options
Charger_adds – an interim calculation sheet which compiles per policy option the charger additions from all selected devices, the percentages for which are used in the disposal calculations
Summary_Figs – various supporting graphical outputs
Charger profiles – sheet where assumptions on prices, emissions and materials, per charger type, and over time are kept
Disposals – sheet which includes the main assumptions for the modelling of disposals
Stock sheets – one per policy option, brings the inflows, removes the outflows, calculates the stock
Impact sheets – one per policy option, these sheets multiply the flows from the stock sheet with information from the charger profiles to calculate impacts
Country estimates – supporting data on population
SBSdata – data from SBS to support Economic impact calculations
BoM Chargers – Bill of Materials data for chargers

model inputs

Smartphone sales data (from commercial sources)
Charger sales data (from PRODCOM)
Charger profiles (cost, prices, weight, composition, emissions – data from various sources)

model outputs

GHG emissions
Material use
E-waste
E-waste treatment
E-waste recycling
Cost to consumers
Benefit (revenue) for manufacturers and wholesalers
Benefit for EU Manufacturers
Manufacturing jobs in EU
Benefit for distributors and retailers
Wholesaler/retailer jobs in EU
Chargers sales / disposals – per type

Additional outputs could be added if associated impacts per charger type are defined, e.g. other environmental impacts.

Intended field of application

policy role: The model is tailored to chargers for mobile phones and other small devices but could be adapted to be applied to any product, which could be valuable across a range of product policies such as Ecodesign, Energy Labelling, Ecolabel, GPP. It’s main purpose is to simulate the markets (flows) and stock of a particular product which lends itself primarily to policy formulation, i.e. establishing a baseline and policy options and their impacts. It could also be used to assist in the monitoring of implementation or ex-post evaluation of policies.

policy areas

Climate action
Energy
Environment
Consumers
Business and industry

Model transparency and quality assurance

Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?: NO - Key variables are the main source of uncertainty. These have been sensitivity tested (see below). Scenario definition for charger disposal (10% of stock per year) is a further key assumption. The model outputs based on these assumptions are validated by consumer survey responses.

Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?: YES - Key variables (e.g. charger profiles, sales) have been sensitivity checked.

Has the model been published in peer review articles?: NO - The model is not peer reviewed. Internal quality assurance is in place.

Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?: NO

Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?: NO - Current stock size is validated with consumer survey data. For the other outputs this is not possible, as not enough time has elapsed.

To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?: Based on both publicly available and restricted-access sources

Is the full model database as such available to external users?: NO - Processed data is public, but some key input data on mobile phone sales and their split by manufacturer/model type is confidential commercial data purchased for the purpose of the analysis. This is included only in aggregate form in the model.

Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?: YES

Have output datasets been made publicly available?: NO - Model outputs are made publicly available in IA reports. Outputs can be made available in agreement with DG GROW.

Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?: NO

Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?: NO - No public documentation of the model is available. However, its elements are explained within the model and in the Annexes to the IA report.

Intellectual property rights

Licence type: Non-Free Software licence

application to the impact assessment

Please note that in the annex 4 of the impact assessment report, the general description of the model (available in MIDAS) has to be complemented with the specific information on how the model has been applied in the impact assessment.

See Better Regulation Toolbox, tool #11 Format of the impact assessment report).