SIBYL

Vehicle Stock, Air Pollutants, and GHG Projection Policy Evaluation Tool
Fact Sheet

Source: Commission modelling inventory and knowledge management system (MIDAS)

Date of Report Generation: Mon Apr 22 2024

Dissemination: Public

© European Union, 2024

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Overview

Acronym

SIBYL

Full title

Vehicle Stock, Air Pollutants, and GHG Projection Policy Evaluation Tool

Main purpose

SIBYL is a projections tool for estimating the development of vehicle stock, fuel consumption and emissions, as well as evaluating scenarios in road transport for 37 European countries.

Summary

SIBYL has been envisaged as a vehicle stock projection tool with internal energy consumption, emission, and cost estimation capabilities. It allows the formation and execution of scenarios, policy assessment and target setting.

EMISIA has recently redesigned the SIBYL baseline, which is now a COPERT compatible dataset that has been extracted using the SIBYL methodology, going even beyond the limits of the well-known software tool integrating new vehicle categories. SIBYL baseline provides historical and projected vehicle fleet data, emissions, and energy consumption for the whole period 1990 – 2050.

Model categories

ClimateEnvironmentTransportEnergy

Model keywords

road transportemissionsscenarios

Model homepage

https://www.emisia.com/utilities/sibyl-baseline/

Ownership and Licence

Ownership

Third-party ownership (commercial companies, Member States, other organisations, …)

Ownership details

The model is developed and owned by EMISIA SA. Free sample data is available for download.

Licence type

Non-Free Software licence

The license has one or more of the following restrictions: it prohibits creation of derivative works; it prohibits commercial use; it obliges to share the licensed or derivative works on the same conditions.

Details

Structure and approach

EMISIA uses the SIBYL model for the projection of emissions from road transport. SIBYL can project emissions based on fleet dynamics, expected market trends and forecasted fleet growth scenario. With SIBYL it is possible to make fleet, activity, energy, and emissions estimations and projections up to 2050. Based on these features and by utilizing proper emission and consumption factors, SIBYL can project emission and energy evolution from road vehicles. SIBYL projections are calibrated against higher-tier energy and/or activity projections and hence can be used to further understand potential problems or inconsistencies observed for individual Member States. The scenario building procedure in SIBYL includes a range of options for the development of user-defined scenarios with a variety of conventional and more advanced vehicle types. SIBYL has been recently redesigned and is now a COPERT compatible dataset which can be used for cost assessment models, to calculate the total emissions and benefits as well as the associated new technology implementation costs, towards the cost-benefit calculation.

Input and parametrization

For the creation of each scenario, the model takes as input data the number of new registrations and stock, the activity data and driving patterns (speeds, shares, etc.) as well as information about fuel for each year and type of vehicle and for all powertrains available in the market. Sibyl is now a COPERT compatible dataset which uses the emission factors of the latest COPERT version, but the list of vehicles has been enhanced such that all alternative powertrains has been considered. In total, 760 different vehicles from road transport are currently part of the SIBYL baseline.

Main output

The model provides the user with state-of-the art (baseline) scenario projections for 37 different European countries and delivers as output a detailed information on vehicle stocks and activities, the resulting GHG and air pollutant emissions, and the energy needs for all the years in the (baseline) scenario.

Spatial & Temporal extent

The output has the following spatial-temporal resolution and extent:

ParameterDescription
Spatial extent / country coverageEU Member states 27
Also 10 additional other European countries
Spatial resolutionNational
Temporal extentLong-term (more than 15 years)
up to 2050
Temporal resolutionYears

Quality & Transparency

Quality

Model uncertainties

Models are by definition affected by uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?

no
High uncertainties due to external reasons (e.g. new regulations, COVID-19, political instability) for future evolution of fuel mix are treated by having different scenarios, information from various sources and the most up-to-date statistical data for historical years

    Sensitivity analysis

    Sensitivity analysis helps identifying the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for the uncertainty in the model responses. Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?

    no
    SIBYL’s outputs are imported to COPERT and afterwards to cost assessment models and then a sensitivity analysis is performed

      Have model results been published in peer-reviewed articles?

      yes

        Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?

        Please note that this does not refer to the cases when model results were validated by stakeholders.

        yes
        It has been reviewed extensively by different European Commission experts during the Euro 7 impact assessment process.

          Model validation

          Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?

          yes
          Annual validation and comparison with results from other models

            Transparency

            To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?

            This may include sources accessible upon subscription and/or payment

            Based on both publicly available and restricted-access sources

            Is the full model database as such available to external users?

            Whether or not it implies a specific procedure or a fee

            yes
            EU reference scenario Statistical data from multiple sources Recent proposals for regulations (e.g. FF55)

            Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?

            Note this excludes IA reports.

            yes

            Have output datasets been made publicly available?

            Note this could also imply a specific procedure or a fee.

            no

              Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?

              For instance: Dashboard, interactive interfaces...

              no

                Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?

                Note this excludes IA reports.

                no

                Is there a dedicated public website where information about the model is provided?

                yes

                Is the model code open-source?

                no

                Can the code be accessed upon request?

                no

                The model’s policy relevance and intended role in the policy cycle

                The model is designed to contribute to the following policy areas

                • Climate action
                • Energy
                • Environment
                • Transport

                The model is designed to contribute to the following phases of the policy cycle

                • Anticipation – such as foresight and horizon scanning
                • Evaluation – such as ex-post evaluation
                • Formulation – such as ex-ante Impact Assessments
                • Implementation – this also includes monitoring

                The model’s potential

                The model can be used to assess the impact to CO2 and pollutant emissions, energy needs and fuel consumption of detailed and aggregated technological changes for road transport sector.

                The model can be used to assess scenarios of road transport developments in the future and can be used for impact assessment studies as a policy evaluation tool (Commission et al., 2022).

                Previous use of the model in ex-ante impact assessments of the European Commission

                Use of the model in ex-ante impact assessments since July 2017.

                2022
                SWD/2022/359 final

                Impact Assessment Accompanying the document Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on type-approval of motor vehicles and of engines and of systems, components and separate technical units intended for such vehicles, with respect to their emissions and battery durability (Euro 7) and repealing Regulations (EC) No 715/2007 and (EC) No 595/2009

                Lead by
                GROW
                Run by
                EMISIA
                Contribution role
                baseline and assessment of policy options
                Contribution details

                The model helped to assess the following impacts:

                • Emission of greenhouse gases
                • Emission of ozone-depleting substances
                • Emissions of acidifying, eutrophying, photochemical or harmful air pollutants
                • Vehicle emissions
                • Energy and fuel consumption
                • Information obligations placed on businesses
                • Cost/availability of essential inputs (raw materials, machinery, labour, energy, ..)
                • Budgetary consequences for public authorities
                • Costs on public authorities

                Bibliographic references

                Studies that uses the model or its results

                No references in this category

                Peer review for model validation

                Euro 7 impact assessment study. 

                Published in 2022

                Model documentation

                No references in this category

                Other related documents

                No references in this category