Annex 4 analytical methods

model description

general description

acronym: SIBYL

name: Vehicle Stock, Air Pollutants, and GHG Projection Policy Evaluation Tool

main purpose: SIBYL is a projections tool for estimating the development of vehicle stock, fuel consumption and emissions, as well as evaluating scenarios in road transport for 37 European countries.

homepage: https://www.emisia.com/utilities/sibyl-baseline/

Developer and its nature

ownership: Third-party ownership (commercial companies, Member States, other organisations, …)

ownership additional info: The model is developed and owned by EMISIA SA. Free sample data is available for download.

is the model code open-source?: NO

Model structure and approach with any key assumptions, limitations and simplifications

details on model structure and approach: EMISIA uses the SIBYL model for the projection of emissions from road transport. SIBYL can project emissions based on fleet dynamics, expected market trends and forecasted fleet growth scenario. With SIBYL it is possible to make fleet, activity, energy, and emissions estimations and projections up to 2050. Based on these features and by utilizing proper emission and consumption factors, SIBYL can project emission and energy evolution from road vehicles. SIBYL projections are calibrated against higher-tier energy and/or activity projections and hence can be used to further understand potential problems or inconsistencies observed for individual Member States. The scenario building procedure in SIBYL includes a range of options for the development of user-defined scenarios with a variety of conventional and more advanced vehicle types. SIBYL has been recently redesigned and is now a COPERT compatible dataset which can be used for cost assessment models, to calculate the total emissions and benefits as well as the associated new technology implementation costs, towards the cost-benefit calculation.

model inputs: For the creation of each scenario, the model takes as input data the number of new registrations and stock, the activity data and driving patterns (speeds, shares, etc.) as well as information about fuel for each year and type of vehicle and for all powertrains available in the market. Sibyl is now a COPERT compatible dataset which uses the emission factors of the latest COPERT version, but the list of vehicles has been enhanced such that all alternative powertrains has been considered. In total, 760 different vehicles from road transport are currently part of the SIBYL baseline.

model outputs: The model provides the user with state-of-the art (baseline) scenario projections for 37 different European countries and delivers as output a detailed information on vehicle stocks and activities, the resulting GHG and air pollutant emissions, and the energy needs for all the years in the (baseline) scenario.

Intended field of application

policy role

The model can be used to assess the impact to CO2 and pollutant emissions, energy needs and fuel consumption of detailed and aggregated technological changes for road transport sector.

The model can be used to assess scenarios of road transport developments in the future and can be used for impact assessment studies as a policy evaluation tool (Commission et al., 2022).

policy areas

Climate action
Energy
Environment
Transport

Model transparency and quality assurance

Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?: NO - High uncertainties due to external reasons (e.g. new regulations, COVID-19, political instability) for future evolution of fuel mix are treated by having different scenarios, information from various sources and the most up-to-date statistical data for historical years

Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?: NO - SIBYL’s outputs are imported to COPERT and afterwards to cost assessment models and then a sensitivity analysis is performed

Has the model been published in peer review articles?: YES

Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?: YES - It has been reviewed extensively by different European Commission experts during the Euro 7 impact assessment process.

Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?: YES - Annual validation and comparison with results from other models

To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?: Based on both publicly available and restricted-access sources

Is the full model database as such available to external users?: YES - EU reference scenario Statistical data from multiple sources Recent proposals for regulations (e.g. FF55)

Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?: YES

Have output datasets been made publicly available?: NO

Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?: NO

Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?: NO

Intellectual property rights

Licence type: Non-Free Software licence

application to the impact assessment

Please note that in the annex 4 of the impact assessment report, the general description of the model (available in MIDAS) has to be complemented with the specific information on how the model has been applied in the impact assessment.

See Better Regulation Toolbox, tool #11 Format of the impact assessment report).