PRIMES

The PRIMES model (Price-Induced Market Equilibrium System) is a large scale applied energy system model that provides detailed projections of energy demand, supply, prices and investment into the future, covering the entire energy system including emissions. The distinctive feature of PRIMES is the combination of behavioural modelling (following a micro-economic foundation of optimisation by agent or sector) with engineering aspects, covering all energy sectors, and with market equilibrium. The model includes a detailed representation of instruments for policy impact assessment related to energy markets, technology adoption and climate mitigation, including market drivers, standards, and targets by sector or overall. It simulates the EU Emissions Trading System in its current form (changes can be simulated). It handles multiple policy objectives, such as GHG emissions reductions, energy efficiency, and renewable energy targets, and provides pan-European simulation of internal markets for electricity and gas.

PRIMES offer the possibility of handling market distortions, barriers to rational decisions, behaviours and market coordination issues and it performs a full accounting of costs (CAPEX and OPEX) and investment in equipment, energy savings and infrastructure. The model covers the horizon up to 2070 in 5-year interval periods and includes all Member States of the EU individually, as well as neighbouring and candidate countries in Europe. PRIMES is designed to analyse complex interactions within the energy system in a multiple agent – multiple markets framework.

Decisions by agents are formulated based on microeconomic foundation (utility maximization, cost minimization influenced by market equilibrium) embedding engineering constraints and explicit representation of technologies and capital vintages; optionally perfect or imperfect foresight for the modelling of investment applies in all sectors. The model allows simulating long-term transformations/transitions and includes non-linear formulation of potentials by type (resources, sites, acceptability etc.) and technology learning.

The PRIMES model is modular and consists of several sub-models (modules), each one representing the behaviour of a specific agent, a demander or supplier of energy. Sub-models link with each other through a model integration algorithm, which determines equilibrium prices in multiple markets and equilibrium volumes, including cap and trade systems (e.g. ETS), which satisfy balancing and policy, e.g. emissions, constraints and policy targets.

Demand modules formulate a representative agent who maximises benefits (profit, utility, etc.) from the energy demand and non-energy inputs (commodities, production factors) subject to prices, budget and other constraints. Constraints relate to activity, comfort, equipment, technology, environment or the fuel availability. In the demand sub-models, the agents may be simultaneously self-producers of energy services (e.g. using a private car, heating using a residential boiler, etc.) and purchasers of marketed energy commodities. The pricing of self-supplied energy services is endogenous and reflects average total costs. The mix of self- supply and the purchasing from external suppliers (e.g. private cars versus public transportation, residential boiler versus district heating) derives from agent’s optimisation, which depends on market conditions where the agents are price-takers.

Supply modules formulate stylised companies aiming at minimising costs (or maximising profits in model variants focusing on market competition) to meet demand subject to constraints related to capacities, fuel availability, environment, system reliability, etc. Supply-side modules determine commodity and infrastructure prices by end-use sector (tariffs) by applying various methodologies by sector as appropriate for recovering costs depending on market conditions and regulations.

Both demand and supply modules are subject to system-wide constraints, mirroring overall targets for example on emissions, renewables, efficiency, import dependency, etc. When binding, constraints convey non-zero shadow prices (dual values) to the demand and supply modules. Hence, the PRIMES model has overall a mixed-complementarity mathematical structure.

Agents are price-takers when being energy demanders and price-makers when being energy suppliers. Optionally, the model can handle non-perfect market competition regimes. The electricity and gas market modules can optionally include explicit companies and apply the Nash-Cournot competition with conjectural variations. Pricing and costing includes taxes, subsidies, levies and charges, congestion fees, tariffs for use of infrastructure etc. Usually, these instruments are exogenous to the model and reflect policy assumptions.

PRIMES follows a descriptive approach concerning factors which influence decisions by private entities, where perceived costs and uncertainty factors play a significant role. Policy measures can reduce uncertainty and decrease perceived costs: such mechanism in the model is often used to simulate policy inducing higher uptake of advanced technology or investment enabling accelerated energy efficiency progress.

The capital formation derives from an economically driven investment and follows a dynamic accounting of equipment technology vintages: equipment invested on a specific date inherits the technical-economic characteristics of the technology vintage corresponding to that date. Capital turnover is dynamic and the model keeps track of capital vintages and their specific technical characteristics. The agent’s investment behaviour consists in building or purchasing new energy equipment to cover new needs, or retrofitting existing equipment or even for replacing prematurely old equipment for economic reasons.

The PRIMES model is fully dynamic and has options regarding future anticipation by agents in decision-making. Usually, PRIMES assumes a perfect foresight over a short time horizon for demand sectors and an imperfect foresight over long time horizon for supply sectors. All economic decisions of agents are dynamic and concern both operation of existing equipment and investment in new equipment, both when equipment is using energy and when it is producing energy.

The PRIMES model also includes a detailed numerical model on biomass supply, namely PRIMES-Biomass, which simulates the economics of supply of biomass and waste for energy purposes through a network of current and future processes. The PRIMES-Biomass model is a key link of communication between the energy system projections obtained by the PRIMES energy system model and the projections on agriculture, forestry and non-CO2 emissions provided by other modelling specialist tools (CAPRI, GLOBIOM/G4M, GAINS).

Computationally, PRIMES solves an EPEC problem (equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints), which allows prices to be explicitly determined. The overall convergence algorithm simultaneously determines multi-market equilibrium while meeting system-wide constraints.  

A summary of database sources, in the current version of PRIMES, is provided below:

• Eurostat and EEA: Energy Balance sheets, Energy prices (complemented by other sources, such IEA), macroeconomic and sectoral activity data (PRIMES sectors correspond to NACE 3-digit classification), population data and projections, physical activity data (complemented by other sources), CHP surveys, CO2 emission factors (sectoral and reference approaches) and EU ETS registry for allocating emissions between ETS and non ETS, Process CO2 emisssions
• Technology databases: ODYSSEE-MURE, ICARUS, Eco-design, VGB (power technology costs), TECHPOL – supply sector technologies, NEMS model database, IPPC BAT Technologies
• Power Plant Inventory: ESAP SA and PLATTS
• RES capacities, potential and availability: JRC ENSPRESO, JRC EMHIRES, RES ninja, ECN, DLR and Observer, IRENA
• Network infrastructure: ENTSOE, GIE, other operators
• Other databases: District heating surveys (e.g. from COGEN), buildings and houses statistics and surveys (various sources, including ENTRANZE project, INSPIRE archive, BPIE), JRC-IDEES, update to the EU Building stock Observatory

The model is fully calibrated to match the historical energy balance of the last PRIMES historical year (5-year step modelling: historical points years are 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, ..) and to capture the more recent evolution since that year.

The PRIMES model provides, per country represented and for the EU as a whole detailed and comprehensive energy balances of the energy system, related CO2 emissions and detailed economic information associated to the energy system (investments, costs, prices, taxes, ..).

In association with the GAINS model and the GLOBIOM model, it provides comprehensive GHG balances per country represented and for the EU as a whole.

The PRIMES model is designed to provide long-term energy system projections and system restructuring up to 2070, both in demand and supply sides. The model (including its transport module PRIMES-TREMOVE) can support impact assessment of specific energy, climate, transport and environment policies and measures, applied at Member State or EU level, including price signals, such as taxation, subsidies, ETS, as well as technology promoting policies, RES supporting policies, efficiency promoting policies, environmental policies and technology standards. The PRIMES model is sufficiently detailed to represent concrete policy measures in various sectors, including market design options for the EU internal electricity and gas markets. Policy analysis is based on comparative analysis of policy scenarios against a “baseline” projection.

Note: the model contributions indicated in this section focus on the assessment for policy options. In addition, this model is extensively used for the construction of the baseline in the EU Reference Scenario. This is indicated under the ‘additional information’ section for the related impact assessments. To learn more please see the following publications:

EU reference scenario 2016. Energy, transport and GHG emissions: trends to 2050, Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2016, https://doi.org/10.2833/9127

EU Reference Scenario 2020. Energy, Transport and GHG Emissions: Trends to 2050, Publications Office, Luxembourg, 2021, https://doi.org/10.2833/35750