Annex 4 analytical methods

model description

general description

acronym
PEPSIT
name
Product Environmental Policy Stock and Impact Tool
main purpose
To model stock and impacts of products, in the context of environmental product policy formulation. To perform objective, quality-controlled socio-economic analyses of technology options of, products and processes to support eco-design, energy label, ecolabel, green public procurement (GPP) policies. 
homepage
—

Developer and its nature

ownership
Third-party ownership (commercial companies, Member States, other organisations, …)
ownership additional info
The model has been developed by PRé Consultant BV 2017. It has been implemented using Microsoft Excel.
is the model code open-source?
NO

Model structure and approach with any key assumptions, limitations and simplifications

details on model structure and approach
  1. To start the modelling of a new product, one can start from scratch, introducing all parameters, or use default values. A dashboard intro sheet describes the main step of the model and the parameters and calculations to be used
  2. The main results are presented in an output sheet
model inputs

For each new product analysed, the Inputs are:

  • Sales, or stock, or ownership ratio of the population of the product
  • Lifetime of the product (stochastic or deterministic: average lifetime, Weibull parameters
  • Information on End-of-Life (EoL) (percentage reused, recycled, disposed of)
  • Sales distribution of different subtypes of the product
  • Utilities consumption (energy, gas, water, etc) per subtypes of the product (e.g. energy efficiency class)
  • Categorization of technologies (mature or emerging)
  • Manufacturer production cost or the base case
  • Increase pf the Manufacture Production Costs (MPC) per energy efficiency class
  • Breakdown of the Manufacture Production Costs (MPC). Learning curve parameters
  • Sales mark-ups 
model outputs

The tool can calculate for each product one or more of the following outputs:

  • Average product lifetime
  • Average product utility consumption
  • Sales and stock in the EU
  • Life Cycle Costing (LCC) at unit level and at EU level :
    • Installation costs
    • Repair & maintenance
    • Operation costs (auxiliaries)
    • Operation costs (utilities (energy and water)
    • Purchase price (ORP)

Intended field of application

policy role

The model is designed for use in policy formulation , specifically for economic and technical characterisation of policy options, and for  impact assessments. 

policy areas
  • Energy 
  • Environment 
  • Consumers 
  • Business and industry 

Model transparency and quality assurance

Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?
YES - To a limited extent. The model is deterministic. Simulation of ranges of inputs is possible, but not an intrinsic part of the model. Only the calculation of lifetime of products is stochastic, but it is a separate module that does not carry the stochastic nature to the rest of the model.
Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?
NO - The model is deterministic. Simulation of ranges of inputs and of scenarios and options is possible, and an essential part of the use of the model.
Has the model been published in peer review articles?
NO
Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?
NO
Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?
NO
To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?
Based on both publicly available and restricted-access sources
Is the full model database as such available to external users?
NO - Data are directly visible in the model.
Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?
NO
Have output datasets been made publicly available?
NO - Follows the same availability rules as IAs from the Commission.
Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?
NO
Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?
NO - Data and calculations are directly visible in the model

Intellectual property rights

Licence type
Non-Free Software licence

application to the impact assessment

Please note that in the annex 4 of the impact assessment report, the general description of the model (available in MIDAS) has to be complemented with the specific information on how the model has been applied in the impact assessment.

See Better Regulation Toolbox, tool #11 Format of the impact assessment report).