NEAC

European Transport Forecast Model
Fact Sheet

Source: Commission modelling inventory and knowledge management system (MIDAS)

Date of Report Generation: Mon Apr 22 2024

Dissemination: Public

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Overview

Acronym

NEAC

Full title

European Transport Forecast Model

Main purpose

NEAC is a European network-based transport model primarily used for analysing multimodal freight.

Summary

NEAC is a multimodal network-based freight transport model, used for analysing cargo flows for European policy analysis. The system covers all of Europe, neighbouring and worldwide countries and provides the link between traffic and economic development across European regions. NEAC is a privately owned model, originally developed in the 1990s for European analysis of freight flows, and maintained and updated by Panteia/NEA (NL).

NEAC is a classical four-step transport model, meaning that it follows a top-down approach, estimating traffic generation, distribution, mode split and network assignment.  It was designed to work with the openly available data and data structures produced by the (European Transport policy Information System) ETIS-BASE and ETIS-PLUS projects, thus allowing the model to be linked to other European models.

The basic geographical units within the system are NUTS3 regions and the model covers road, rail,  inland waterway, ports and maritime.  Starting from a database of multimodal chains (produced by the WORLDNET FP6 project), the model simulates the multimodal routeing of the different commodity types from origin to destination via the transport network, and it contains cost models which are used to determine cargo routeing.  Through a combination of exogenous and endogenous effects, the system can be modelled over time to produce projections.  Sea transport is included within the multimodal network structures in NEAC, making it possible to analyse shifts between maritime and inland freight, as well as competition between ports.

The NEAC model can be used in the context of impact assessments, for supporting policy formulation. It is particularly suitable for modelling transport infrastructure policies (e.g. TEN-T), multimodal freight, port competition and containerisation.  

Model categories

Transport

Model keywords

transport modeltransport network

Model homepage

https://www.panteia.com/services/transport-modelling-and-databases/

Ownership and Licence

Ownership

Third-party ownership (commercial companies, Member States, other organisations, …)

Ownership details

Developed and maintained by Panteia/NEA

Licence type

Non-Free Software licence

The license has one or more of the following restrictions: it prohibits creation of derivative works; it prohibits commercial use; it obliges to share the licensed or derivative works on the same conditions.

Details

Structure and approach

Source: SWD(2018)178

See also: https://www.panteia.com/themes/transport-mobility/transport-models/

Input and parametrization

  • Transport networks (ETIS-PLUS) – road, rail, inland waterway, maritime
  • TENtec data – definition of European corridors
  • Trade data (COMEXT)
  • Transport OD (tonnes lifted, landed) data (source Eurostat, per mode)
  • Transport performance data (tonne-kms)
  • Transport cost data
  • Traffic link flow data (e.g. trucks, trains per network section)
  • Model parameters are primarily based on TRANSTOOLS (DG-MOVE)

Main output

Typical outputs used in practice are:

  • Traffic flow maps (e.g. full network or corridor level)
  • Mode shares (in TKM) per territorial unit.
  • Estimations of system costs (internal and external)
  • Base year, forecast, or scenario-based outputs.

Spatial & Temporal extent

The output has the following spatial-temporal resolution and extent:

ParameterDescription
Spatial extent / country coverageEU Member states 27ALL countries of the WORLD
NEAC models all Europe-related freight flows, including extra-EU trade. The model regions cover the whole world. Flows between non-European countries are not modelled.
Spatial resolutionNationalSub-national (NUTS1)Sub-national (NUTS2)Sub-national (NUTS3)
The model uses NUTS3 regions within Europe, and larger e.g. national regions for most non-European countries. Certain larger non-European countries such as China or USA are split into equivalent of NUTS1 regions.
Temporal extentMedium-term (5 to 15 years)Long-term (more than 15 years)
The model uses a single base year (e.g. 2015) and can forecast at annual level. There are no technical limits on the forecasting horizon, but in practice, a typical forecast period would be 10-20 years in the future.
Temporal resolutionYears

Quality & Transparency

Quality

Model uncertainties

Models are by definition affected by uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?

no
NEAC is used for a wide variety of tasks, often to fill gaps, where no precise data exists. The model is calibrated to available data, but this does not cover the full range of uncertainties in a system of this scale.

    Sensitivity analysis

    Sensitivity analysis helps identifying the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for the uncertainty in the model responses. Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?

    yes
    The key area which has been studied is the sensitivity of the mode split function. This has been done by comparing to other models and other functions.

      Have model results been published in peer-reviewed articles?

      no
      Not in full, and not by external parties. The model however uses functional forms and parameters which have been published in research studies, e.g. TRANSTOOLS.

        Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?

        Please note that this does not refer to the cases when model results were validated by stakeholders.

        no

          Model validation

          Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?

          yes
          NEAC is one of the older European models, and therefore there are many published studies containing forecasts made in the past with projections to the (now) present day. Recently comparisons have been made with the EU Reference Forecasts, so that input assumptions can be aligned, and outputs compared in detail.

            Transparency

            To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?

            This may include sources accessible upon subscription and/or payment

            Entirely based on publicly available sources

            Is the full model database as such available to external users?

            Whether or not it implies a specific procedure or a fee

            yes
            NEAC uses the ETIS-PLUS databases, which is openly and freely available.

              Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?

              Note this excludes IA reports.

              yes

              Have output datasets been made publicly available?

              Note this could also imply a specific procedure or a fee.

              no
              There are no confidentiality restrictions with the outputs.

                Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?

                For instance: Dashboard, interactive interfaces...

                no

                  Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?

                  Note this excludes IA reports.

                  yes
                  A full description of the model is available on the Panteia website, or alternatively on request.

                  Is there a dedicated public website where information about the model is provided?

                  no

                    Is the model code open-source?

                    no

                    Can the code be accessed upon request?

                    yes

                    The model’s policy relevance and intended role in the policy cycle

                    The model is designed to contribute to the following policy areas

                    • Climate action
                    • Competition
                    • Environment
                    • European neighbourhood policy
                    • Maritime affairs and fisheries
                    • Regional policy
                    • Trade
                    • Transport

                    The model is designed to contribute to the following phases of the policy cycle

                    • Evaluation – such as ex-post evaluation
                    • Formulation – such as ex-ante Impact Assessments

                    The model’s potential

                    NEAC model is particularly suitable for modelling freight flows.  Its main use is for transport infrastructure policies, and for specialised areas such as port competition and containerisation.  Building on this it is also used for environmental and climate change policy analysis, and its large geographical scope also makes it suitable in areas such as regional policy, maritime affairs and the European neighbourhood policy.

                    It has been used for impact assessments, such as the Maritime Services Directive (DG-MOVE) and the Streamlining of TEN-T Directive (DG-MOVE).  Otherwise it is used for a wide variety of TEN-T  forecasting exercises, including TEN-STAC and the TEN-T Corridor studies (2014-2018). It can also be used for network/accessibility analyses such as the Safe and Secure Parking Study (DG-MOVE) to analyse the accessibility and provision of parking facilities for lorries at European scale.

                    Impact types that can be assessed with the models include:

                    Economic Impacts

                    • Operating Costs Analysis of cost savings for transport users: 
                      • through: Analysis of cost savings for transport users
                    • Trade and Investment:
                      • through: Trade forecasts
                    • Functioning of the internal market and competition 
                      • ports, through: Analysis of port competition and captiveness of port hinterlands
                    • Specific Regions or Sectors 
                      • regions; through: Model outputs detailed at NUTS3 level or at network link level.

                    Environmental Impacts

                    • Climate
                      • emission of GHG
                        • through: Conversion of transport quantities per mode of transport (TKM, VKM) into energy demand and emissions.
                    • Air quality
                      • pollution (NOX, SOX, PM)
                        • through: Conversion of transport quantities per mode of transport  (TKM, VKM) into energy demand and emissions.
                    • Transport and the use of energy
                      • through: Conversion of transport quantities per mode of transport  (TKM, VKM) into energy demand

                    Previous use of the model in ex-ante impact assessments of the European Commission

                    Use of the model in ex-ante impact assessments since July 2017.

                    2018
                    SWD/2018/178 final

                    Impact assessment accompanying the document Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on: streamlining measures for advancing the realisation of the trans-European transport network

                    Lead by
                    MOVE
                    Run by
                    Panteia/NEA
                    Contribution role
                    baseline and assessment of policy options
                    Contribution details

                    The model has been used to reflect the impacts of delays in the implementation of core TEN-T network investments on the transport activity. The Panteia/NEA tool together with NEAC model have been used for assessing the social benefits of the policy options, drawing on input from the updated EU Reference scenario 2016.

                    Bibliographic references

                    Studies that uses the model or its results

                    Study on safe and secure parking places for trucks : final report. 

                    Published in 2019

                    Support study for an impact assessment on measures for the streamlining of TEN-T : final report. 

                    Published in 2018

                    Peer review for model validation

                    No references in this category

                    Model documentation

                    No references in this category

                    Other related documents

                    No references in this category