Annex 4 analytical methods
model description
general description
- acronym
- NEAC
- name
- European Transport Forecast Model
- main purpose
- NEAC is a European network-based transport model primarily used for analysing multimodal freight.
- homepage
- https://www.panteia.com/services/transport-modelling-and-databases/
Developer and its nature
- ownership
- Third-party ownership (commercial companies, Member States, other organisations, …)
- ownership additional info
- Developed and maintained by Panteia/NEA
- is the model code open-source?
- NO
Model structure and approach with any key assumptions, limitations and simplifications
- details on model structure and approach
Source: SWD(2018)178
See also: https://www.panteia.com/themes/transport-mobility/transport-models/
- model inputs
- Transport networks (ETIS-PLUS) – road, rail, inland waterway, maritime
- TENtec data – definition of European corridors
- Trade data (COMEXT)
- Transport OD (tonnes lifted, landed) data (source Eurostat, per mode)
- Transport performance data (tonne-kms)
- Transport cost data
- Traffic link flow data (e.g. trucks, trains per network section)
- Model parameters are primarily based on TRANSTOOLS (DG-MOVE)
- model outputs
Typical outputs used in practice are:
- Traffic flow maps (e.g. full network or corridor level)
- Mode shares (in TKM) per territorial unit.
- Estimations of system costs (internal and external)
- Base year, forecast, or scenario-based outputs.
Intended field of application
- policy role
NEAC model is particularly suitable for modelling freight flows. Its main use is for transport infrastructure policies, and for specialised areas such as port competition and containerisation. Building on this it is also used for environmental and climate change policy analysis, and its large geographical scope also makes it suitable in areas such as regional policy, maritime affairs and the European neighbourhood policy.
It has been used for impact assessments, such as the Maritime Services Directive (DG-MOVE) and the Streamlining of TEN-T Directive (DG-MOVE). Otherwise it is used for a wide variety of TEN-T forecasting exercises, including TEN-STAC and the TEN-T Corridor studies (2014-2018). It can also be used for network/accessibility analyses such as the Safe and Secure Parking Study (DG-MOVE) to analyse the accessibility and provision of parking facilities for lorries at European scale.
Impact types that can be assessed with the models include:
Economic Impacts
- Operating Costs Analysis of cost savings for transport users:
- through: Analysis of cost savings for transport users
- Trade and Investment:
- through: Trade forecasts
- Functioning of the internal market and competition
- ports, through: Analysis of port competition and captiveness of port hinterlands
- Specific Regions or Sectors
- regions; through: Model outputs detailed at NUTS3 level or at network link level.
Environmental Impacts
- Climate
- emission of GHG
- through: Conversion of transport quantities per mode of transport (TKM, VKM) into energy demand and emissions.
- emission of GHG
- Air quality
- pollution (NOX, SOX, PM)
- through: Conversion of transport quantities per mode of transport (TKM, VKM) into energy demand and emissions.
- pollution (NOX, SOX, PM)
- Transport and the use of energy
- through: Conversion of transport quantities per mode of transport (TKM, VKM) into energy demand
- Operating Costs Analysis of cost savings for transport users:
- policy areas
- Climate action
- Maritime affairs and fisheries
- Environment
- Regional policy
- Transport
- Competition
- Trade
- European neighbourhood policy
Model transparency and quality assurance
- Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?
- NO - NEAC is used for a wide variety of tasks, often to fill gaps, where no precise data exists. The model is calibrated to available data, but this does not cover the full range of uncertainties in a system of this scale.
- Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?
- YES - The key area which has been studied is the sensitivity of the mode split function. This has been done by comparing to other models and other functions.
- Has the model been published in peer review articles?
- NO - Not in full, and not by external parties. The model however uses functional forms and parameters which have been published in research studies, e.g. TRANSTOOLS.
- Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?
- NO
- Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?
- YES - NEAC is one of the older European models, and therefore there are many published studies containing forecasts made in the past with projections to the (now) present day. Recently comparisons have been made with the EU Reference Forecasts, so that input assumptions can be aligned, and outputs compared in detail.
- To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?
- Entirely based on publicly available sources
- Is the full model database as such available to external users?
- YES - NEAC uses the ETIS-PLUS databases, which is openly and freely available.
- Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?
- YES
- Have output datasets been made publicly available?
- NO - There are no confidentiality restrictions with the outputs.
- Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?
- NO
- Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?
- YES - A full description of the model is available on the Panteia website, or alternatively on request.
Intellectual property rights
- Licence type
- Non-Free Software licence
application to the impact assessment
Please note that in the annex 4 of the impact assessment report, the general description of the model (available in MIDAS) has to be complemented with the specific information on how the model has been applied in the impact assessment.
See Better Regulation Toolbox, tool #11 Format of the impact assessment report).