Annex 4 analytical methods

The METIS model consists of three main modules: power system, gas system and power market. Each of the three modules interact with each other mutually, as the output of one module is fed into other modules as input. Alternatively, the three modules can be run independently, when analysing electricity, gas and heat energy separately.

The Power System module of METIS has been designed to analyse multiple power systems issues, following a welfare-maximisation principle. It is also being used to analyse the European power systems’ dynamics, by providing production plans, electricity flows, production costs, systemic marginal costs, scarcity periods and loss of load, or other standard indicators detailed further in the document. The Power System module contains a library of assets for production, consumption and transmissions that can be attached to each node of the network.

The Power System module contains the following assets: thermal non-renewable energy assets, hydro assets, other renewable energy assets, other storage assets, power consumption, power transmission, fuel contracts, CO2 emissions, reserve requirements, loss of load, and surplus of energy at each node.

The Gas System module has been designed to address multiple gas systems issues, following a welfare-maximisation principle, as in the Power System module. It allows the analysis of the European gas systems’ dynamics, by providing production plans, gas flows, loss of load, etc.

The Gas System module contains the following assets: the gas consumption as described by the national demand of natural gas, the gas production as captures by the indigenous production of natural gas, the gas storage as described by storage facilities for gas, the liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal as captured by gasification terminals that are receiving and transforming LNG into natural gas, LNG imports as described by imports of LNG sent to LNG terminals, LNG exports as captured by the liquefaction train liquefying natural gas and exporting, gas imports as captured by imports of natural gas from non-modelled countries through pipelines, gas exports as described by exports of natural gas to non-modelled countries through pipelines, pipelines as captured by gas transmissions between modelled zones, and CO2 emissions as described by CO2 emissions due to the consumption of natural gas associated with a CO2 price.

The Power Market module replicates the market participants’ decision process. For a given period (typically, hours or days), the generation plan (including both energy generation and balancing reserve supply) is first optimised based on day-ahead demand and renewable energy generation forecasts. Market coupling is modelled via net transfer capacity (NTC) constraints for interconnectors. Then, the generation plan is updated during the day, taking into account updated forecasts and asset technical constraints. Finally, imbalances are drawn to simulate balancing energy procurement. Imbalances are the result of events that could not have been predicted before the gate closure.

The METIS model files, technical documentation and user’s instructions can be found on the model’s website:

https://ec.europa.eu/energy/data-analysis/energy-modelling/metis_en 

METIS requires as inputs the following types of data (up to hourly granularity):

• Capacity and technical characteristics of infrastructure
• Capital and technology costs
• Fuel prices
• CO2 emission factors and prices
• Weather data (actual data and forecasts)
• Wind, solar and hydro profiles
• Demand profiles and level of demand

The main sources of data are derived from publically available sources, in particular Eurostat, ENTSO-E and ENTSO-G.

Data for renewable energy potentials and time series are currently updatedA significant part of the input is context dependent, i.e. on the scenario against which METIS is calibrated (e.g. relevant PRIMES scenarios as in the case of the Market Design studies).

In general METIS is very flexible in using very different sources of data and not being restricted to specific databases or sources.

The model provides the dispatch of energy assets at hourly (or otherwise specified) time resolution.

The model can be used for the policy formulation. METIS is able to simulate the entire European energy system and markets operation for electricity, gas and heat energy carriers under a stochastic uncertainty, capturing for example weather variations and other stochastic events (short to medium term).

• Energy