LUISA
Source: Commission modelling inventory and knowledge management system (MIDAS)
Date of Report Generation: Mon Apr 22 2024
Dissemination: Public
© European Union, 2024
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Overview
Acronym
LUISA
Full title
LUISA Territorial Modelling Platform
Main purpose
A territorial modelling platform primarily used for the ex-ante evaluation of EC policies that have a direct or indirect territorial impact.
Summary
The LUISA Territorial Modelling Platform is primarily used for the ex-ante evaluation of EC policies that have a direct or indirect territorial impact. It is based on the concept of ‘land function’ for cross-sector integration and for the representation of complex system dynamics. Beyond a traditional land use model, LUISA adopts a new approach towards activity-based modelling based upon the endogenous dynamic allocation of population, services and activities.
LUISA can be configured to project a baseline (or reference) scenario, assuming official socio-economic trends (from DG ECFIN and EUROSTAT), business as usual processes, and the effect of established European policies with direct and/or indirect territorial impacts. Variations to that reference scenario may be used to estimate impacts of specific policies, or of alternative macro-assumptions. This highly flexible and customisable structure of LUISA makes it a suitable tool for providing insights to policy-makers in Europe regarding landscape, urban areas, investment policies, environment and, more broadly, aspects pertaining to sustainability and territorial cohesion.
LUISA is based upon the notion of land function – a new concept for cross-sector integration and for representing complex system dynamics. LUISA aims to contribute to the understanding, modelling and assessment of the impacts of land functions dynamics as they interact from local to global scales in the context of multiple and changing drivers. A land function can, for example, be societal (e.g. provision of housing, leisure and recreation), economic (e.g. provision of production factors - employment, investments, energy – or provision of manufacturing products and services – food, fuels, consumer goods, etc) or environmental (e.g. provision of ecosystem services). Land functions are temporally and spatially dynamic, and are constrained and driven by natural, socio-economic, and techno-economic processes. The ultimate product of LUISA is a set of spatially explicit indicators that can be combined according to the ‘function’ of interest and/or to the sector under assessment.
This is notably a wider notion of just “land use modelling” and of what so far has been referred to in literature.
The LUISA Modelling platform is a de-facto integrative tool because of its coherent linkages with macroeconomic and biophysical models and with thematic databases. The ultimate product of LUISA is a set of territorial indicators that can be grouped and combined according to the ‘function’ of interest and/or to the sector under assessment.
Model categories
Territory
Model keywords
dynamic land functionland useterritorial impact assessmentsustainabilityland managementterritorial modelling platformcohesionurban agendaconvergence
Model homepage
Ownership and Licence
Ownership
EU ownership (European Commission)
Ownership details
Licence type
Non-Free Software licence
The license has one or more of the following restrictions: it prohibits creation of derivative works; it prohibits commercial use; it obliges to share the licensed or derivative works on the same conditions.
Details
Structure and approach
The LUISA Territorial Modelling Platform is a system of sub-models designed to assess, ex-ante, the territorial implications of policy decisions. LUISA is composed of multiple interconnected modules that enable it to:
- Downscale national and regional information at a finer spatial scale
- Compile, harmonize and relate datasets from various sources
- Simulate future Land Functions, population distribution and accessibility at a 100m pixel resolution
- Bring together information relative to future Land Functions and other sources to produce a range of over 50 indicators
- Share model results to external users and provide them with a capacity to analyse results (Urban Data Platform Plus)
The LUISA territorial modelling framework has the capacity to work across spatial scales with various levels of detail and its outputs can be aggregated at any spatial level (from pixel to national scale). For policy support, LUISA’s strength lies in its ability to assess impacts of EU policies that play out because of local interactions between sectors and therefore cannot be observed with typically sector-oriented, spatially-coarse impact assessment approaches.
Input and parametrization
LUISA links specialized models and data within a coherent workflow.
The resource-demand module uses the following outputs to drive the allocation of activities and services:
- demographic (EUROPOP 2008, 2010, 2013 and updates) and
- economic projections (from ECFIN and/or from models such as: CAPRI, GEM-E3, RHOMOLO and others)
The allocation module uses a number of spatially explicit parameters at different resolutions (1 x 1 km, 100 x 100 m) in order to define an overall suitability for every modelled land use/cover type. These individual input are called factor maps.
LUISA integrates factor maps related to
- accessibility measures
- land and soil characteristics and
- topography
In addition, the neighbourhood interactions between land use types are taken into account dynamically, as the land use patterns evolve and change through time.
The definition of policy options requires the development of a range of parameters, which take into account both
- location specific policies (e.g.: demand for each land use class, zoning maps, region-specific support measures, etc.) and
- the characteristics of land-use dynamics (e.g.: transition rules, neighbourhood effects, attractiveness etc.).
The actual conversion from the land-use state to a land use state in tn+1 for each location is based on the most suitable land use type for that specific location at that specific time. The land use state in t0 is given by the LUISA Base Map 2012 (currently updated to 2018) derived by a refined version of the CORINE Land Cover map of 2012of 2012.
Main output
The main direct outputs of LUISA are:
- a simulated map of the land use/cover for a given year in the future;
- projected population maps at high geographical resolution
- detailed accessibility maps
The combination of direct outputs with other data layers and with thematic models further allow the computation of a wide range of indicators, representing the simulated land functions.
Output indicators can be grouped acccording to specific definition of land functions, e.g.:
- Economic development
- Demography (including age-class projections)
- Provision of products
- Settlement and infrastructures
- Transport and Accessibility
- Resource Efficiency
- Environment and Climate
- Urban and Regional Development
Direct outputs and computed indicators can be aggregated at different geographical level (NUTS or grid based).
Spatial & Temporal extent
The output has the following spatial-temporal resolution and extent:
| Parameter | Description |
|---|---|
| Spatial extent / country coverage | EU Member states 27ALL countries of Europe |
| LUISA is prepared to make simulations for all EU Member states 27 and UK. It can be set to run individual NUTS1/NUTS2 or individual countries alone. In addition, the model can run all EU Member states 27 and UK by batching all countries-runs. Each NUTS2 is dealt as a single allocation problems, and results for all Europe are the aggregation of the individual results obtained for each NUTS2. Consequently, it is actually possible to work with irregular regions of interest, composed of any configuration of NUTS2. The model is being extended to cover new Member States of the European Union or to other neighbour countries of interest for which CORINE Land Cover 2012 (or comparable map) is available. A specific version of LUISA has been applied for the whole African continent. | |
| Spatial resolution | NationalSub-national (NUTS2)Sub-national (NUTS3)Sub-national (other)MunicipalityRegular Grid < 1kmRegular Grid 1km - 10km |
| Temporal extent | Long-term (more than 15 years) |
| The land allocation module of LUISA requires a calibration which is based on the observed/historical land use/cover changes, as reported by the CORINE Land Cover set of maps (1990, 2000, 2006 and 2012). As currently configured, the allocation module runs from 2015, producing yearly results up to 2050. However, the runs can be extended 10 or 20 more years as long as demand is provided for the land use/cover types of interest. | |
| Temporal resolution | YearsMultiple years |
Quality & Transparency
Quality
Model uncertainties
Models are by definition affected by uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?
- response
- yes
- details
- Comparison with similar model (see reference).
- url
Sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity analysis helps identifying the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for the uncertainty in the model responses. Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?
- response
- yes
- details
- Currently ongoing.
- url
Have model results been published in peer-reviewed articles?
- response
- yes
- details
- Paper on models comparison published.
- url
Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?
Please note that this does not refer to the cases when model results were validated by stakeholders.
- response
- no
- details
- url
Model validation
Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?
- response
- yes
- details
- Historical check.
- url
Transparency
To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?
This may include sources accessible upon subscription and/or payment
- response
- Entirely based on publicly available sources
Is the full model database as such available to external users?
Whether or not it implies a specific procedure or a fee
- response
- no
- details
- url
Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?
Note this excludes IA reports.
- response
- yes
- details
- documents
For details please refer to the 'peer review for model validation' documents in the bibliographic references
Have output datasets been made publicly available?
Note this could also imply a specific procedure or a fee.
- response
- yes
Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?
For instance: Dashboard, interactive interfaces...
- response
- yes
Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?
Note this excludes IA reports.
- response
- yes
- details
- Model documentation is available in the report: The LUISA Territorial Reference Scenario 2017.
Is there a dedicated public website where information about the model is provided?
- response
- yes
Is the model code open-source?
- response
- no
- details
Can the code be accessed upon request?
- response
- yes
- details
The model’s policy relevance and intended role in the policy cycle
The model is designed to contribute to the following policy areas
- Agriculture and rural development
- Climate action
- Economy, finance and the euro
- Energy
- Environment
- Institutional affairs
- Regional policy
- Transport
The model is designed to contribute to the following phases of the policy cycle
- Anticipation – such as foresight and horizon scanning
- Evaluation – such as ex-post evaluation
- Formulation – such as ex-ante Impact Assessments
The model’s potential
As part of the definition, implementation and review of EU policies, legislation and other measures, the European Commission (EC) performs impact assessments to examine potential economic, social and environmental consequences and evaluate options and improve the effectiveness of the EU action.
The LUISA Territorial modelling platform supports the policy design of different services of the European Commission and provides a comprehensive, consistent and harmonised analysis of the impacts of policies and/or specific proposals.
In order to provide a coherent and harmonised framework for Impact Assessment procedures accompanying EC initiatives, the Land Use Modelling Platform has been configured to be consistent with the definition of the Reference Scenario, as given in the Climate and Energy package. The Reference Scenario is up-dated according to specific policy implementation, following a phased approach.
Contributions have already been provided by its predecessor LUMP (Land use modelling platform) in the Impact Assessments (formal and informal) related to CAP, Integrated Coastal Zone Management, Regional Policy, Energy (shale gas and energy package), EU Water Blueprint, and Resource Efficiency Roadmap.
One of the major milestones in the LUISA development plan is the implementation of a shared EC baseline scenario. The shared baseline scenario includes the full scope of relevant policies assuring coherence among them since it should inform on future prospects in all sectoral domains that are affected by EU policies. Because of its benchmark function, the correct definition and implementation of such a baseline scenario is essential to correctly evaluate EC proposals.
The medium/long term objective is the complete establishment and operation of the “Integrated Sustainability Assessment Platform” whereby models, methods of assessment and databases are further dynamically integrated, in a coherent framework.
The LUISA modelling platform supports the policy design of different services of the European Commission and provides a comprehensive, consistent and harmonised analysis of the impacts of policies and/or specific proposals.
The purpose for which LUISA is most suited for is ex-ante impact assessment of European policies that influence, directly or indirectly land use/cover change. The forecasted land use/cover changes are not only analyzed per se. Land use/cover is an important factor for many services such as provision of food; fibre and timber; biodiversity; water flows and climate regulation; carbon sequestration; provision of recreational opportunities; accessibility and mobility etc.
Because of its multi-thematic dimension, LUISA allows the definition and implementation of scenarios (and their potential alternatives) in a consistent manner, ensuring cross-sectoral policy coherency.
Previous use of the model in ex-ante impact assessments of the European Commission
Use of the model in ex-ante impact assessments since July 2017.
2018SWD/2018/249 final/2
Impact assessment accompanying the document Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council: on minimum requirements for water reuse
- Lead by
- ENV
- Run by
- European Commission
- Contribution role
- problem definition (indirect)
- Contribution details
- Documented in study :
The LUISA model provided projections on land use change, used in the study "Impact of a changing climate, land use, and water usage on Europe’s water resources" which supported the problem definition.