Annex 4 analytical methods

The LUISA Territorial Modelling Platform is a system of sub-models designed to assess, ex-ante, the territorial implications of policy decisions. LUISA is composed of multiple interconnected modules that enable it to:

1. Downscale national and regional information at a finer spatial scale
2. Compile, harmonize and relate datasets from various sources
3. Simulate future Land Functions, population distribution and accessibility at a 100m pixel resolution
4. Bring together information relative to future Land Functions and other sources to produce a range of over 50 indicators
5. Share model results to external users and provide them with a capacity to analyse results (Urban Data Platform Plus)

The LUISA territorial modelling framework has the capacity to work across spatial scales with various levels of detail and its outputs can be aggregated at any spatial level (from pixel to national scale). For policy support, LUISA’s strength lies in its ability to assess impacts of EU policies that play out because of local interactions between sectors and therefore cannot be observed with typically sector-oriented, spatially-coarse impact assessment approaches.

LUISA links specialized models and data within a coherent workflow.

The resource-demand module uses the following outputs to drive the allocation of activities and services:

• demographic (EUROPOP 2008, 2010, 2013 and updates) and
• economic projections (from ECFIN and/or from models such as: CAPRI, GEM-E3, RHOMOLO and others)

The allocation module uses a number of spatially explicit parameters at different resolutions (1 x 1 km, 100 x 100 m) in order to define an overall suitability for every modelled land use/cover type. These individual input are called factor maps.

LUISA integrates factor maps related to

• accessibility measures 
• land and soil characteristics and
• topography

In addition, the neighbourhood interactions between land use types are taken into account dynamically, as the land use patterns evolve and change through time.

The definition of policy options requires the development of a range of parameters, which take into account both

• location specific policies (e.g.: demand for each land use class, zoning maps, region-specific support measures, etc.) and
• the characteristics of land-use dynamics (e.g.: transition rules, neighbourhood effects, attractiveness etc.).

The actual conversion from the land-use state to a land use state in tn+1 for each location is based on the most suitable land use type for that specific location at that specific time. The land use state in t0 is given by the LUISA Base Map 2012 (currently updated to 2018) derived by a refined version of the CORINE Land Cover map of  2012of 2012.

The main direct outputs of LUISA are:

• a simulated map of the land use/cover for a given year in the future;
• projected population maps at high geographical resolution 
• detailed accessibility maps

The combination of direct outputs with other data layers and with thematic models further allow the computation of a wide range of indicators, representing the simulated land functions.

Output indicators can be grouped acccording to specific definition of land functions, e.g.:

• Economic development
• Demography (including age-class projections)
• Provision of products
• Settlement and infrastructures
• Transport and Accessibility
• Resource Efficiency
• Environment and Climate
• Urban and Regional Development

Direct outputs and computed indicators can be aggregated at different geographical level (NUTS or grid based).

As part of the definition, implementation and review of EU policies, legislation and other measures, the European Commission (EC) performs impact assessments to examine potential economic, social and environmental consequences and evaluate options and improve the effectiveness of the EU action.

The LUISA Territorial modelling platform supports the policy design of different services of the European Commission and provides a comprehensive, consistent and harmonised analysis of the impacts of policies and/or specific proposals.

In order to provide a coherent and harmonised framework for Impact Assessment procedures accompanying EC initiatives, the Land Use Modelling Platform has been configured to be consistent with the definition of the Reference Scenario, as given in the Climate and Energy package. The Reference Scenario is up-dated according to specific policy implementation, following a phased approach.

Contributions have already been provided by its predecessor LUMP (Land use modelling platform) in the Impact Assessments (formal and informal) related to CAP, Integrated Coastal Zone Management, Regional Policy, Energy (shale gas and energy package), EU Water Blueprint, and Resource Efficiency Roadmap.

One of the major milestones in the LUISA development plan is the implementation of a shared EC baseline scenario. The shared baseline scenario includes the full scope of relevant policies assuring coherence among them since it should inform on future prospects in all sectoral domains that are affected by EU policies. Because of its benchmark function, the correct definition and implementation of such a baseline scenario is essential to correctly evaluate EC proposals.

The medium/long term objective is the complete establishment and operation of the “Integrated Sustainability Assessment Platform” whereby models, methods of assessment and databases are further dynamically integrated, in a coherent framework.

The LUISA modelling platform supports the policy design of different services of the European Commission and provides a comprehensive, consistent and harmonised analysis of the impacts of policies and/or specific proposals.

The purpose for which LUISA is most suited for is ex-ante impact assessment of European policies that influence, directly or indirectly land use/cover change. The forecasted land use/cover changes are not only analyzed per se. Land use/cover is an important factor for many  services such as provision of food; fibre and timber; biodiversity; water flows and climate regulation; carbon sequestration; provision of recreational opportunities; accessibility and mobility etc.

Because of its multi-thematic dimension, LUISA allows the definition and implementation of scenarios (and their potential alternatives) in a consistent manner, ensuring cross-sectoral policy coherency.

• Agriculture and rural development 
• Climate action 
• Institutional affairs 
• Economy, finance and the euro 
• Energy 
• Environment 
• Regional policy 
• Transport