GAINS
Source: Commission modelling inventory and knowledge management system (MIDAS)
Date of Report Generation: Thu Mar 06 2025
Dissemination: Public
© European Union, 2025
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Overview
Acronym
GAINS
Full title
Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS)-Model
Main purpose
GAINS is an analytical framework for assessing future potentials and costs for reducing air pollution impacts on human health and the environment while simultaneously mitigating climate change through reduced greenhouse gas emissions. It explores synergies and trade-offs in cost-effective emission control strategies so as to maximize benefits across multiple scales.
Summary
The Greenhouse gas - Air pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model developed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), describes the pathways of atmospheric pollution from its anthropogenic origin to the most relevant environmental impacts (Amann et al. 2011). It brings together information on future economic, energy and agricultural development, emission control potentials and costs, atmospheric dispersion and environmental sensitivities towards air pollution. The model addresses threats to human health posed by fine particulates and ground-level ozone, risk of ecosystems damage from acidification, excess nitrogen deposition (eutrophication) and exposure to elevated levels of ozone, as well as various global and regional climate metrics to calculate warming potential or temperature change. The assessed impacts are considered in a multi-pollutant context, quantifying the contributions of sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), ammonia (NH3), non-methane volatile organic compounds (VOCs), primary emissions of particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10 and black and organic carbon -BC, OC), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), fluorinated gases (HFCs, PFCs and SF6), and mercury (Hg).
The GAINS model can explore cost-effective strategies to reduce emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases in order to meet specified environmental targets. It also assesses how specific control measures simultaneously influence different pollutants, permitting a combined analysis of air pollution and climate change mitigation strategies, which can reveal important synergies and trade-offs between these policy areas. The optimization mode of the GAINS model balances emission control measures across countries, pollutants and economic sectors such that user-defined target levels on various environmental impacts are met at least costs.
The GAINS model framework has global coverage with a geographic representation of 180 countries/regions and spanning the period 1990 to 2050 in five-year intervals with extension to 2070 for the European region. The estimation of emissions is combining activity data with emission factors describing alternative sets of pollutant reduction technologies. The emphasis lies on a rich representation of more than a thousand emission source sectors with associated alternative sets of abatement technologies. This allows for identification and quantification of emission sources, exposure levels, and mitigation potentials at a policy relevant level, e.g., by region (EU, country, sub-national, city level), by sector (industry, residential, transport, agriculture), by farm size, by urban/rural contribution. Atmospheric dispersion processes are modeled using a source-receptor methodology that linearly approximates results of full chemical transport models. Critical load information (characterizing ecosystem sensitivities) are often compiled exogenously and incorporated into the GAINS model framework.
The model can be operated in the 'scenario analysis' mode, i.e., following the pathways of the emissions from their sources to their impacts. In this case the model provides estimates of regional costs and environmental benefits of alternative emission control strategies. The model can also operate in the 'optimization mode', which identifies cost-optimal allocations of emission reductions in order to achieve specified deposition levels, concentration targets, or GHG emissions ceilings. The current version of the model can be used for viewing activity levels and emission control strategies, as well as calculating emissions and control costs for those strategies.
GAINS is frequently used to provide model input for air pollution and climate policy formulation. For example, GAINS has been used for policy analyses by the European Commission for the EU Reference Scenario (Energy, transport and GHG emissions: trends to 2070) and for the EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution and the air policy review (e.g., Amann et al., 2016, 2018; EC, 2019).
Model categories
Climate and air quality
Model keywords
Air Pollutionclimate changeemissionsair pollutant emissions
Model homepage
Ownership and Licence
Ownership
Third-party ownership (commercial companies, Member States, other organisations, …)
Ownership details
Licence type
Non-Free Software licence
The license has one or more of the following restrictions: it prohibits creation of derivative works; it prohibits commercial use; it obliges to share the licensed or derivative works on the same conditions.
Details
Structure and approach
Input and parametrization
GAINS uses externally produced activity scenarios for the macroeconomic, energy sector and agricultural sector developments. These are imported through links to partial equilibrium models, e.g., PRIMES for energy sector developments in Europe, CAPRI for developments in agricultural activity (livestock numbers and fertilizer use) in Europe, and the IEA-WEO and FAO for global energy and agricultural sector scenarios, respectively. In consistency with respective macroeconomic developments, GAINS generates internally projections for waste generation, relevant industry production, and consumption of F-gases. Technology-specific emission factors and cost parameters are developed internally in GAINS through information from literature and from direct dialogues and iterative consultations with stakeholders.
Main output
GAINS estimates emissions, mitigation potentials and costs for the major air pollutants (SO2, NOx, PM, NH3, VOC, BC/OC) and for the six greenhouse gases included in the Kyoto Protocol.
Outputs include emissions, impacts and costs of alternative policy configurations, prescribed or identified as cost-effective.
Spatial & Temporal extent
The output has the following spatial-temporal resolution and extent:
Parameter | Description |
---|---|
Spatial extent / country coverage | EU Member states 27ALL countries of the WORLD |
GAINS has global coverage, distinguishing 182 regions including 48 European countries, 32 provinces in China and 23 in India, further subnational regions in larger Asian countries and also some aggregated regions, e.g. Central America. | |
Spatial resolution | Regular Grid 1km - 10kmRegular Grid 10km - 50km |
Depends on the indicator. Grid resolution for calculating ambient PM2.5 in Europe: 0.125⁰ (longitude) x 0.0625⁰ (latitude), approx. 7x7km. Different resolution in the global domain outside Europe. | |
Temporal extent | Long-term (more than 15 years) |
1990 to 2050 in 5-year intervals with extension to 2070 for the European region | |
Temporal resolution | Multiple years |
Five years intervals |
Quality & Transparency
Quality
Model uncertainties
Models are by definition affected by uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?
- response
- yes
- details
- Uncertainty is in GAINS handled through: - The use of alternative activity data scenarios reflecting a range of macroeconomic, energy and agricultural sector developments - Extension of sector/technology model resolution to reflect policy relevant implications of e.g., scale, urban/rural differences, etc. on emission factors and costs - Consideration of a wealth of country-specific factors and circumstances in the derivation of emission factors, cost parameters, and emission control strategies.
- url
Sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity analysis helps identifying the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for the uncertainty in the model responses. Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?
- response
- yes
- details
- Sensitivity analyses are frequently performed on GAINS model results on a case-by-case basis, e.g., by the use of alternative activity data scenarios or by using ranges for emission factors and costs in simulations.
- url
Have model results been published in peer-reviewed articles?
- response
- yes
- details
- GAINS model results have been presented in numerous peer-reviewed publications.
- url
Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?
Please note that this does not refer to the cases when model results were validated by stakeholders.
- response
- yes
- details
- GAINS has been evaluated by an external expert panel on a few occasions as part of regular IIASA program reviews.
- url
Model validation
Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?
- response
- yes
- details
- Modelled ambient PM concentrations at (urban or rural) background level have been validated against observations, see Kiesewetter et al (2015a,b) and Amann et al., 2020. GAINS bottom-up emission inventory for global methane emissions evaluated against top-down atmospheric measurements of CH4 concentration, see Höglund-Isaksson et al. (2020); Saunois et al. (2020).
- url
Transparency
To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?
This may include sources accessible upon subscription and/or payment
- response
- Entirely based on publicly available sources
Is the full model database as such available to external users?
Whether or not it implies a specific procedure or a fee
- response
- yes
- details
- The GAINS database is publicly available and can be accessed through the GAINS website. The information supplied on the GAINS website or parts thereof may be freely used for non-commercial and educational purposes. Data from this site is for informational purposes only, and may only be used as input to other models with explicit permission of IIASA. Information from this site may be reproduced with proper acknowledgment to IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.
- url
Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?
Note this excludes IA reports.
- response
- yes
- details
- Several policy related reports are available from IIASA website and the EU websites.
- documents
For details please refer to the 'peer review for model validation' documents in the bibliographic references
Have output datasets been made publicly available?
Note this could also imply a specific procedure or a fee.
- response
- no
- details
- Simulation mode results can be produced within the public model framework. Optimization mode results have been made available through peer-reviewed publications.
- url
Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?
For instance: Dashboard, interactive interfaces...
- response
- yes
Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?
Note this excludes IA reports.
- response
- yes
- details
Is there a dedicated public website where information about the model is provided?
- response
- yes
- details
- url
Is the model code open-source?
- response
- no
- details
Can the code be accessed upon request?
- response
- yes
- details
The model’s policy relevance and intended role in the policy cycle
The model is designed to contribute to the following policy areas
- Climate action
- Public health
The model is designed to contribute to the following phases of the policy cycle
- Formulation – such as ex-ante Impact Assessments
The model’s potential
The model is designed to contribute to the following policy areas:
- Climate action through mitigation potentials for non-CO2 GHGs and Black Carbon
- Climate action through harnessing health co-benefits
- Public health through air pollution exposure levels
- Ecosystem protection through critical loads
GAINS is used for policy analyses under the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP), e.g., for the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol, and by the European Commission for the EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution and the air policy review e.g. the EU Clean Air Outlooks (http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/models/gains_resources.html), and it was among the models used to inform the EC proposal “A Clean Planet for All” (COM (2018) 773). GAINS is used to assess domestic mitigation potential of non-CO2 GHGs for EU climate policy analyses. Scientists and government agencies in many nations (e.g., in Europe, China, India, Vietnam) use GAINS as a tool to assess emission reduction potentials in their regions.
In "scenario analysis" mode, it follows emission pathways from sources to impacts, providing estimates of regional costs and the environmental benefits of alternative emission control strategies.
In “optimization” mode, GAINS identifies cost-optimal portfolios of emission control measures for achieving specified targets, such as absolute emission limits, or health impacts.
Previous use of the model in ex-ante impact assessments of the European Commission
Use of the model in ex-ante impact assessments since July 2017.
2024SWD/2024/63 final
Impact Assessment Report Part 1 Accompanying the document Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions Securing our future Europe's 2040 climate target and path to climate neutrality by 2050 building a sustainable, just and prosperous society
- Lead by
- CLIMA
- Run by
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
- Contribution role
- baseline and assessment of policy options
- Contribution details
The GAINS model was used as the main modelling tool to estimate air pollutant emissions and their impacts on human health and the environment, as well as non-CO2 GHG emissions.
2022SWD/2022/377 final
Impact Assessment Accompanying the document Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council establishing a Union certification framework for carbon removals
- Lead by
- CLIMA
- Run by
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
- Contribution role
- baseline and assessment of policy options
- Contribution details
This impact assessment used the results from the model run for impact assessment SWD/2020/176 final regarding '2030 Climate Target Plan'
2022SWD/2022/377 final
Impact Assessment Accompanying the document Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council establishing a Union certification framework for carbon removals
- Lead by
- CLIMA
- Run by
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
- Contribution role
- baseline and assessment of policy options
- Contribution details
This impact assessment used the results from the model run for impact assessment SWD/2021/609 final regarding 'Land use, land use change & forestry – review of EU rules' (LULUCF)
2022SWD/2022/545 final
Impact Assessment accompanying the document Proposal for a Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council on ambient air quality and cleaner air for Europe (recast)
- Lead by
- ENV
- Run by
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
- Contribution role
- baseline and assessment of policy options
- Contribution details
The model helped to assess the following impacts:
- Emissions of acidifying, eutrophying, photochemical or harmful air pollutants
2021SWD/2021/609 final
Impact assessment accompanying the document Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and the Council: amending Regulations (EU) 2018/841 as regards the scope, simplifying the compliance rules, setting out the targets of the Member States for 2030 and committing to the collective achievement of climate neutrality by 2035 in the land use, forestry and agriculture sector, and (EU) 2018/1999 as regards improvement in monitoring, reporting, tracking of progress and review
- Lead by
- CLIMA
- Run by
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
- Contribution role
- baseline and assessment of policy options
- Contribution details
The model helped to assess the following impacts:
- Health and safety of individuals/populations
- Health risks due to substances harmful to the natural environment
- Health due to changes in the amount of noise, air, water or soil quality
- Health due to changes waste disposal
- Emission of greenhouse gases
- Economic incentives set up by market based mechanisms
- Emission of ozone-depleting substances
- Emissions of acidifying, eutrophying, photochemical or harmful air pollutants
- Acidification, contamination or salinity of soil, and soil erosion rates
- Use of renewable resources
2021SWD/2021/601 final
Impact assessment accompanying the document Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council: amending Directive 2003/87/EC establishing a system for greenhouse gas emission allowance trading within the Union, Decision (EU) 2015/1814 concerning the establishment and operation of a market stability reserve for the Union greenhouse gas emission trading scheme and Regulation (EU) 2015/757
- Lead by
- CLIMA
- Run by
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
- Contribution role
- baseline and assessment of policy options
- Contribution details
The model helped to assess the following impacts:
- Health and safety of individuals/populations
- Health due to changes waste disposal
- Health due to changes in the amount of noise, air, water or soil quality
- Health risks due to substances harmful to the natural environment
- Emission of greenhouse gases
- Economic incentives set up by market based mechanisms
- Emission of ozone-depleting substances
- Emissions of acidifying, eutrophying, photochemical or harmful air pollutants
- Acidification, contamination or salinity of soil, and soil erosion rates
- Use of renewable resources
2021SWD/2021/611 final
Impact assessment accompanying the document Proposal for a regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council: amending Regulation (EU) 2018/842 on binding annual greenhouse gas emission reductions by Member States from 2021 to 2030 contributing to climate action to meet commitments under the Paris Agreement
- Lead by
- CLIMA
- Run by
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
- Contribution role
- baseline and assessment of policy options
- Contribution details
The model helped to assess the following impacts:
- Health and safety of individuals/populations
- Health risks due to substances harmful to the natural environment
- Health due to changes in the amount of noise, air, water or soil quality
- Health due to changes waste disposal
- Emission of greenhouse gases
- Economic incentives set up by market based mechanisms
- Emission of ozone-depleting substances
- Emissions of acidifying, eutrophying, photochemical or harmful air pollutants
- Acidification, contamination or salinity of soil, and soil erosion rates
- Use of renewable resources
2020SWD/2020/176 final
Impact Assessment accompanying the document Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions: Stepping up Europe’s 2030 climate ambition Investing in a climate-neutral future for the benefit of our people
- Lead by
- CLIMA
- Run by
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
- Contribution role
- baseline and assessment of policy options
- Contribution details
GAINS models non-CO2 greenhouse gases for diverse sectors such as agriculture, waste, energy and industry and their associated cost for reducing emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases (CH4, N2O, F-gases).