FS-MFA
Source: Commission modelling inventory and knowledge management system (MIDAS)
Date of Report Generation: Thu Mar 06 2025
Dissemination: Public
© European Union, 2025
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Overview
Acronym
FS-MFA
Full title
Food System Material Flow Analysis model
Main purpose
This model is built on the development of yearly Material Flow Analyses of the food system at national level to estimate the generation of food waste, food losses and by-products from food production across the food supply chain in EU Member States.
Summary
The EU is committed to meeting the Sustainable Development Goal Target 12.3 to halve per capita food waste at the retail and consumer level by 2030, and reduce food losses along the food production and supply chains. To achieve this goal, the European Commission carried out several actions including the elaboration of a common EU methodology to measure food waste consistently and proposed, as part of the revision of the Waste Framework Directive, to set legally binding food waste reduction targets to be achieved by Member States by 2030.
To support Member States in the monitoring and reporting of food waste quantities to the Commission, and to benchmark the quantities reported, by evaluating data quality and identifying potential errors, the JRC developed a model for the estimation of food waste at Member State level, based on statistical and literature data, adopting a consistent approach across countries, and enabling the assessment of temporal trends.
The model estimates yearly generation of food waste, food losses, and by-products from food production and processing in the EU. These quantities are estimated for each year and Member State, distinguishing between food groups and stages of the supply chain (i.e. primary production, processing and manufacturing, retail and distribution, households, and food services). While food waste is quantified at all stages of the supply chain, food losses are quantified at primary production (i.e. pre-harvesting stage), and by-products (used for animal feed and non-food uses) are quantified at primary production and processing and manufacturing stages. The model was built by developing yearly material flows analyses (MFA) of the food system in each Member State.
The resulting estimates offer a high degree of granularity, enabling the model to be used for scenario analyses, such as evaluating the impact of dietary changes on food waste generation. In addition to its use for benchmarking purposes, the model has been used to support the impact assessment of the legislative proposal on the revision of the Waste Framework Directive. By complementing Member States’ reported data on food waste generation, the model allowed for the disaggregation of estimates at the food group level. This, in turn, facilitated a more precise analysis of the environmental impacts associated with food waste and the potential environmental benefits of achieving the proposed targets (Sala et al., 2023, De Jong et al., 2023).
In addition, this model may serve policy makers for three main aspects that can support the analysis of both existing and future policies:
- Monitoring of policies along time
- Identification of hotspots at different levels (e.g. products and supply chain stages responsible for larger generation of food waste)
- Analysis of policy and green transition scenarios (e.g. assessing the potential for increasing the circularity of the EU food system or the effects of promoting a societal shift to reduce consumer food waste).
Model categories
AgricultureClimateEconomyEnvironment
Model keywords
food wastefood lossesby-productsmaterial flow analysisfood supply chainfood systems circularity
Model homepage
Ownership and Licence
Ownership
EU ownership (European Commision)
Ownership details
Licence type
No information available
Details
Structure and approach
The primary goal of the food system material flow analysis model is the quantification of food waste at each stage of the food supply chain (FSC) – primary production, processing and manufacturing, retail and distribution, food services, and household consumption. It also estimates food losses generated at primary production, and by-products generated at primary production and processing, distinguishing between those used as animal feed and for non-food uses (e.g. biomaterials). The model consists of several material flow analyses of the food system in each MS and for each year between 2003 and 2021. In each MFA, the entire food system is mapped, from the harvesting of crops to the consumption of food, and the flows leaving the system are quantified and differentiated between food losses, food waste, and by-products. 11 food groups are considered in the model: sugar, cereals, fruit and nuts, vegetables, potatoes, oilseeds, meat, fish, eggs, dairy, and cocoa and coffee. Estimates are provided at supply chain stage and food group level, for all 27 MSs and all years considered in the analysis.
The model uses as input annual data on agricultural production, trade of agricultural commodities, production and trade of manufactured food products. These are combined with a series of coefficients, partly collected from scientific and technical literature and partly directly calculated from primary data provided by trade associations, to estimate the food waste, losses and by-products generated across the supply chain. Whenever country-specific food waste and food losses coefficients are not available, coefficients taken from other countries are used as proxies.
Sales data at national level are used to complement missing statistical data, for instance to differentiate the amounts of fruit and vegetables distributed for fresh consumption from those entering the manufacturing stage, or to distinguish between the amount of a given product consumed by households from the quantities consumed in food service establishments.
An additional output of the model are the quantities of each food product consumed by an average citizen in each country. These are compared with the amounts reported in the EFSA food consumption database (EFSA, 2015) and obtained through consumption surveys to validate the results of the model.
It should be stressed that, as the food waste coefficients used by the model are fixed in time (due to a general lack of data providing temporal variations in patterns of food waste generation), the temporal variations in the food waste estimates yielded by the model result only from variations in volumes of produced and traded quantities of food, and do not capture actual changes in food waste generation patterns due to changes of consumers’ behaviour and of food business operators’ practices.
The first version of the model was published in De Laurentiis et al. (2021). Here the overall structure of the model and methodology are presented, together with the results obtained with version 1 of the model. Then, the model was further developed in two subsequent versions: De Laurentiis et al., (2023) presents the refinements introduced with version 2 of the model and the related results, and De Laurentiis et al., (2024) presents the refinements introduced with version 3 of the model and the related results. The last is therefore the version to consult to see the most updated results.
Input and parametrization
The food system MFA model is based on the combination of:
- Data on production, trade, and non-food uses of crops and livestock products
- Data on production and trade of manufactured food products
- Food waste coefficients and other technical coefficients (e.g. production efficiencies) taken from scientific and technical literature
- Primary data collected from trade associations
- Market sales data
- Data from food consumption surveys
Main output
For each EU MS and at EU27 level, and for each year between 2003 and 20201, the food system MFA model generates the following outputs:
- Total food waste estimations per food group and FSC stage expressed in fresh mass. This is further disaggregated in solid food waste, liquid food waste, and edible food waste amounts.
- Total food waste amounts per FSC stage expressed in dry mass (only solid food waste).
- Per capita food waste estimations by stage of the FSC and by food group (only solid food waste) expressed in fresh mass.
- Detailed material flow analysis of the food system per food category and across the FSC stage, including: food losses, by-products to animal feed, by-products to non-food, food waste (solid and liquid components together), consumed amount of each food group at household and food services level. All quantities are in fresh mass.
- Comparison between consumed amounts from the model version and EFSA food consumption surveys, per food category.
Spatial & Temporal extent
The output has the following spatial-temporal resolution and extent:
| Parameter | Description |
|---|---|
| Spatial extent / country coverage | EU Member states 27 |
| Spatial resolution | World-regions (supranational)National |
| Temporal extent | Long-term (more than 15 years) |
| Temporal resolution | Years |
Quality & Transparency
Quality
Model uncertainties
Models are by definition affected by uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?
- response
- no
- details
- This model has many layers of input parameters that could lead to uncertainty of the overall result: trade data, production data, technical coefficients. This is acknowledged when presenting the results of the model (De Laurentiis et al., 2024)
- url
Sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity analysis helps identifying the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for the uncertainty in the model responses. Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?
- response
- no
- details
- This model can deal with sensitivity analysis for many parameters, including trade data, production data, and technical coefficients. No formal sensitivity analysis has been performed to date.
- url
Have model results been published in peer-reviewed articles?
- response
- yes
- details
- url
Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?
Please note that this does not refer to the cases when model results were validated by stakeholders.
- response
- no
- details
- url
Model validation
Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?
- response
- yes
- details
- The model was validated by comparing one of its outputs, the quantities of each food product consumed by an average citizen in a given country, with data collected via food consumption surveys. This is presented in the results section of the report (De Laurentiis et al., 2024).
- url
Transparency
To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?
This may include sources accessible upon subscription and/or payment
- response
- Based on both publicly available and restricted-access sources
Is the full model database as such available to external users?
Whether or not it implies a specific procedure or a fee
- response
- yes
- details
- All sources of data used by the model are listed in Annex 1 and Annex 2 of the technical report (De Laurentiis et al., 2024).
- url
Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?
Note this excludes IA reports.
- response
- yes
- details
- documents
For details please refer to the 'peer review for model validation' documents in the bibliographic references
Have output datasets been made publicly available?
Note this could also imply a specific procedure or a fee.
- response
- yes
Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?
For instance: Dashboard, interactive interfaces...
Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?
Note this excludes IA reports.
- response
- yes
- details
Is there a dedicated public website where information about the model is provided?
- response
- yes
Is the model code open-source?
- response
- no
- details
Can the code be accessed upon request?
- response
- yes
- details
The model’s policy relevance and intended role in the policy cycle
The model is designed to contribute to the following policy areas
- Agriculture and rural development
- Climate action
- Consumers
- Environment
- Statistics
The model is designed to contribute to the following phases of the policy cycle
- Anticipation – such as foresight and horizon scanning
- Evaluation – such as ex-post evaluation
- Formulation – such as ex-ante Impact Assessments
- Implementation – this also includes monitoring
The model’s potential
The main uses of the model for policy support are to compare the estimated amounts with the food waste quantities reported by MSs for measurements applied according to Annex III of Delegated Decision (EU) 2019/1597 (i.e. direct measurements, waste composition analysis, diaries and the like), and to allow data quality checks for estimations performed according to Annex IV of Delegated Decision (EU) 2019/1597, for instance when measured data (according to Annex III) from former years are scaled with socio-economic indicators. Furthermore, the information provided by the model was used complementarily to data on food waste generation reported by MSs in the context of the impact assessment of a legislative proposal setting legally binding food waste reduction targets for MSs. In this context, since the annual reported food waste quantities are not disaggregated at the level of product groups, these quantities were combined with information extracted from the MFA model on the contribution of the different product groups to the food waste generated in each country and stage of the supply chain. This allowed to perform a more accurate analysis of the environmental impacts embodied in food waste and consequently of the potential environmental savings that would be obtained by meeting the targets (Sala et al., 2023, De Jong et al., 2023).
In addition, as this model contributes to a better understanding of the physical flow of materials across the food system and of its efficiency and circularity potential, it can further support policy making in a number of ways.
- Monitoring: yearly updates of the estimates of food waste, food losses, and by-products can allow tracking the evolution of the system over time
- Identifying hotspots, in terms of products, stages of the food chain, and countries responsible for a large share of food waste generation, and the potential for increasing the efficiency of the food system
- Setting a baseline against which policy options and green transitions scenarios can be tested, such as increased circularity and efficiency of supply chains, reduced food waste, and dietary shifts.
Therefore, the food system MFA model can support both monitoring and ex-post evaluation of existing policies, as well as performing scenario analysis that can be used in ex-ante impact assessment of policies.
Previous use of the model in ex-ante impact assessments of the European Commission
Use of the model in ex-ante impact assessments since July 2017.
2023SWD/2023/421 final
Impact Assessment accompanying the document Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council amending Directive 2008/98/EC on waste
- Lead by
- ENV
- Run by
- European Commission
- Contribution role
- baseline and assessment of policy options
- Contribution details
The Material Flow Analysis model developed by JRC was used in order to derive amounts of food waste for individual product groups. These results were used to derive the baseline, by combining them with MAGNET to perform projections to 2030, and to quantify the environmental impacts of EU food waste generation, which were used in the problem definition.