Annex 4 analytical methods

The primary goal of the food system material flow analysis model is the quantification of food waste at each stage of the food supply chain (FSC) – primary production, processing and manufacturing, retail and distribution, food services, and household consumption. It also estimates food losses generated at primary production, and by-products generated at primary production and processing, distinguishing between those used as animal feed and for non-food uses (e.g. biomaterials). The model consists of several material flow analyses of the food system in each MS and for each year between 2003 and 2021. In each MFA, the entire food system is mapped, from the harvesting of crops to the consumption of food, and the flows leaving the system are quantified and differentiated between food losses, food waste, and by-products. 11 food groups are considered in the model: sugar, cereals, fruit and nuts, vegetables, potatoes, oilseeds, meat, fish, eggs, dairy, and cocoa and coffee. Estimates are provided at supply chain stage and food group level, for all 27 MSs and all years considered in the analysis.

The model uses as input annual data on agricultural production, trade of agricultural commodities, production and trade of manufactured food products. These are combined with a series of coefficients, partly collected from scientific and technical literature and partly directly calculated from primary data provided by trade associations, to estimate the food waste, losses and by-products generated across the supply chain. Whenever country-specific food waste and food losses coefficients are not available, coefficients taken from other countries are used as proxies.

Sales data at national level are used to complement missing statistical data, for instance to differentiate the amounts of fruit and vegetables distributed for fresh consumption from those entering the manufacturing stage, or to distinguish between the amount of a given product consumed by households from the quantities consumed in food service establishments.

An additional output of the model are the quantities of each food product consumed by an average citizen in each country. These are compared with the amounts reported in the EFSA food consumption database (EFSA, 2015) and obtained through consumption surveys to validate the results of the model.

It should be stressed that, as the food waste coefficients used by the model are fixed in time (due to a general lack of data providing temporal variations in patterns of food waste generation), the temporal variations in the food waste estimates yielded by the model result only from variations in volumes of produced and traded quantities of food, and do not capture actual changes in food waste generation patterns due to changes of consumers’ behaviour and of food business operators’ practices.

The first version of the model was published in De Laurentiis et al. (2021). Here the overall structure of the model and methodology are presented, together with the results obtained with version 1 of the model. Then, the model was further developed in two subsequent versions: De Laurentiis et al., (2023) presents the refinements introduced with version 2 of the model and the related results, and De Laurentiis et al., (2024) presents the refinements introduced with version 3 of the model and the related results. The last is therefore the version to consult to see the most updated results.

The food system MFA model is based on the combination of:

• Data on production, trade, and non-food uses of crops and livestock products
• Data on production and trade of manufactured food products
• Food waste coefficients and other technical coefficients (e.g. production efficiencies) taken from scientific and technical literature
• Primary data collected from trade associations
• Market sales data
• Data from food consumption surveys

For each EU MS and at EU27 level, and for each year between 2003 and 20201, the food system MFA model generates the following outputs:

• Total food waste estimations per food group and FSC stage expressed in fresh mass. This is further disaggregated in solid food waste, liquid food waste, and edible food waste amounts.
• Total food waste amounts per FSC stage expressed in dry mass (only solid food waste).
• Per capita food waste estimations by stage of the FSC and by food group (only solid food waste) expressed in fresh mass.
• Detailed material flow analysis of the food system per food category and across the FSC stage, including: food losses, by-products to animal feed, by-products to non-food, food waste (solid and liquid components together), consumed amount of each food group at household and food services level. All quantities are in fresh mass.
• Comparison between consumed amounts from the model version and EFSA food consumption surveys, per food category.

The main uses of the model for policy support are to compare the estimated amounts with the food waste quantities reported by MSs for measurements applied according to Annex III of Delegated Decision (EU) 2019/1597 (i.e. direct measurements, waste composition analysis, diaries and the like), and to allow data quality checks for estimations performed according to Annex IV of Delegated Decision (EU) 2019/1597, for instance when measured data (according to Annex III) from former years are scaled with socio-economic indicators. Furthermore, the information provided by the model was used complementarily to data on food waste generation reported by MSs in the context of the impact assessment of a legislative proposal setting legally binding food waste reduction targets for MSs. In this context, since the annual reported food waste quantities are not disaggregated at the level of product groups, these quantities were combined with information extracted from the MFA model on the contribution of the different product groups to the food waste generated in each country and stage of the supply chain. This allowed to perform a more accurate analysis of the environmental impacts embodied in food waste and consequently of the potential environmental savings that would be obtained by meeting the targets (Sala et al., 2023, De Jong et al., 2023).

In addition, as this model contributes to a better understanding of the physical flow of materials across the food system and of its efficiency and circularity potential, it can further support policy making in a number of ways.

• Monitoring: yearly updates of the estimates of food waste, food losses, and by-products can allow tracking the evolution of the system over time
• Identifying hotspots, in terms of products, stages of the food chain, and countries responsible for a large share of food waste generation, and the potential for increasing the efficiency of the food system
• Setting a baseline against which policy options and green transitions scenarios can be tested, such as increased circularity and efficiency of supply chains, reduced food waste, and dietary shifts.

Therefore, the food system MFA model can support both monitoring and ex-post evaluation of existing policies, as well as performing scenario analysis that can be used in ex-ante impact assessment of policies.

• Agriculture and rural development 
• Climate action 
• Environment 
• Consumers 
• Statistics