Annex 4 analytical methods

model description

general description

acronym: EIA

name: Ecodesign Impact Accounting model

main purpose: To model environmental and socio-economic impacts of environmental product policy options, as part of preparatory and impact assessment studies for ecodesign and energy labelling and similar end-use instruments.

homepage: https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/studies/ecodesign-impact-accounting-0

Developer and its nature

ownership: EU ownership (European Commission)

ownership additional info: The model has been developed by Van Holsteijn en Kemna BV (‘VHK’) for the European Commission in its current form 2013. It has been implemented using Microsoft Excel.

is the model code open-source?: NO

Model structure and approach with any key assumptions, limitations and simplifications

details on model structure and approach

The EIA-tool models the technical potential and associated socio-economic impacts for EU policy options regarding resource efficiency improvement and emission abatement (including for greenhouse gases) for consumer- and professional products. The resulting EU-level scenarios typically cover a 1990 to 2050 time-horizon.

The main focus of the model is on transparency to obtain stakeholder involvement and acceptance as much as possible. The stock-model is extensive, i.e. covering many output-categories, but uses straightforward intuitive calculations and is easily accessible in Excel.

The EIA-tool follows the Methodology for Ecodesign of Energy-related Products (MEErP) for preparatory (review) studies in Ecodesign, which includes the data structure from the EcoReport tool [1] as well as calculation procedures for the assessment of environmental and socio-economic impacts etc.. It takes into account the relevant requirements of the European Commission’s Better Regulation impact assessment guidelines [2]. Generic (default) input parameters on historical and future rates are periodically updated and taken as much as possible from EU-related sources, such as (a) Eurostat for historical energy rates, conventions on calorific values per fuel, etc., (b) EEA (https://www.eea.europa.eu/ ) for air pollution conversion factors (NOx, SO2, PM, etc.), GWP-100 factors for electricity production (reworked), conversions following UNFCC, (c) the latest PRIMES reference scenario for energy price projections, and (d) Energy Efficiency Directive amendment (EU)2018/2002. OJ L 328, 21.12.2018. used for primary energy factor (2.1 instead of 2.5 at transition).

Product-specific inputs are taken typically from Ecodesign preparatory studies and/or for aggregated studies, like the periodical overall Ecodesign impact accounting, from the IA reports. The model is periodically updated following the results of new preparatory, review and IA studies. The calculation model updates usually are the result of product specific peculiarities involving double counting, double impacts, lifetime peaks/lows, etc. that require an adjustment for that product. The latest model description can be found on the Commission website. [3]

For some product groups, model variants exist to handle product-specific analysis needs. Typically these variants contain additions to derive the input required by the main methodology, i.e. to derive average loads or efficiencies from detailed distributions, to correctly manage the shift in sales from less to more efficient base cases, to relate product sales to the stock of buildings and dwellings, to include more complex lifetime-distributions in the stock calculations, to simulate the effect of hydrogen as a fuel instead of natural gas, to simulate more detailed price-efficiency relationships (e.g. LEDs), to add energy effects of related products (variable speed drives, lighting control gears, PFHRDs), etc.. In this sense, in particular the Model for European Light Sources Analysis (MELISA) is a further detailed variant of the EIA-model, even if the main analysis methodology remains the same.

References

[1] https://ec.europa.eu/growth/industry/sustainability/ecodesign_en

[2] https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/better-regulation-guidelines-impact-assessment.pdf and https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/better-regulation-guidelines-evaluation-fitness-checks.pdf

[3] Wierda, L., Kemna, R. et al. (VHK), Ecodesign Impact Accounting, VHK for EC DG ENER C.3, 2013-2018. https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/studies/ecodesign-impact-accounting-0

model inputs

Generic parameters: historical energy prices, future energy price escalation (growth rate corrected for inflation), electricity to primary energy conversion coefficient (CC=1/PEF), global warming potential for energy sources (GWP-100); rates (€/unit) for consumables (water, paper/filters/ detergents/toner/electrodes/etc. as appropriate) and average maintenance/repair costs (€/yr.). Energy rates diversified per usage sector (residential, tertiary, industry, other).

Business-sector-specific parameters: typical revenue-split OEM/industry/ wholesale/ retail/ installer/ VAT, average revenue per direct job.

For each new product analysed, the Inputs are given for the EU (currently the EU27-2020) and the period 1990-2050:

Definition of product and product-subtypes (‘Base Cases’);
Unit sales per Base Case, EU 1990-2050;
Acquisition costs (in fixed euros, i.e. inflation-corrected for the reference year);
Service life of the product (average lifetime or lifetime array where needed);
Unit load, average user demand for product output;
Unit environmental impact (energy efficiency, GHG, NOx, CO, PM emissions) of average new products sold per year over the 1990-2050 period;
Annual unit consumable consumption (e.g. water, paper) and maintenance costs;
Improvement environmental impact and associated costs, given as arrays of values for inter- and extrapolation, at least for Base Case (BC), Least Life Cycle Cost (LLCC), Best Available Technology (BAT) products;
Learning curve effect (percentage acquisition cost reduction per year after implementing policy option, up to previous level).

model outputs

Scenarios: the BAU (‘Business-As-Usual’) and ECO scenario;
Derived variables and constants: Stock (volume installed), environmental impacts of stock (energy, emissions), installation, maintenance, auxiliary inputs, end-of-life unit costs;
Consumer expenditure: Total acquisition and running costs;
Business revenue: Total turnover for industry, wholesale, retail, installation sectors;
Social parameters: Direct employment (number of jobs)

Intended field of application

policy role

The model is designed for use in policy formulation, specifically for economic and technical characterisation of policy options, and for impact assessments. The model can also be used (after a review study) for post evaluation of the impacts of policies.

Impact types that can be assessed with the models include:

Environmental impacts

Energy efficiency (energy use per unit of performance)
Energy consumption
GHG emissions
Other air pollution (NOx)

Economic impacts Sales (units, price)

Stock (units)
Acquisition costs
Running costs
Consumer expenditure
Revenues market actors

Social impacts

Employment (jobs)

policy areas

Energy
Environment
Consumers
Business and industry

Model transparency and quality assurance

Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?: YES - Models are by definition tainted with uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations? [If not, why? (e.g. too demanding, don't know how to do it, other reasons).] As much as is possible to a limited extent. Most uncertainty is typically not in the model but in the input data. At the low aggregation level of commercial, economic and environmental data for consumer- and professional products the uncertainty is often high, and the model is typically used to reach consensus amongst stakeholders of what are acceptable data.

Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?: YES - As mentioned, sensitivity analyses with the model are used in preparatory studies and impact assessments to reach consensus. In the final reporting, sensitivity analysis may also be presented to give policy makers an impression of the uncertainty.

Has the model been published in peer review articles?: NO - The model has been used by the European Court of Auditors to evaluate the Ecodesign and Energy Label programme and, apart from minor modifications to which the EC agreed and which have now been incorporated, found adequate for the purpose. Apart from that, the stock model is scrutinised by stakeholders (industry, NGOs, Member States, EU institutions) every time it is used in impact assessments. As such it has been used in the review of the Ecodesign and Energy Label Framework Directives in 2015 and 24 product-specific IA and preceding preparatory studies by VHK over the past 15 years, relating to 24 Ecodesign Commission Regulations and on 15 occasions combined with Energy Label. Annually the outcomes of all Ecodesign studies are aggregated in the Ecodesign Impact Accounting studies, using the EIA-tool for harmonisation of the calculation procedure. Outcomes of these aggregated studies with the model have been used in EC press releases and internal communications to communicate the impact of Ecodesign and Energy Label.

Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?: NO

Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?: YES - Yes, model validation by industry, experts, stakeholders has been done, see above. In the context of the review of regulations a comparison between the projected saving from the first IA versus what actually happened ex-post is a mandatory part of the analysis (following REFIT in Better Regulation Toolbox).

To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?: Entirely based on publicly available sources

Is the full model database as such available to external users?: NO - Data are directly visible in the model. The Commission publishes the annual EIA updates on its website in the form of a status report (with model description), a background overview report with product information, and sometimes a special report e.g. on material resources use. All these documents can be downloaded by the general public. The main product-specific data sources are preparatory studies, usually with their own public project website, run by the contractor, where intermediate and final results (data inputs in the model) are given. The final reports of these studies stay available on the Commission website for the general public.

Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?: YES

Have output datasets been made publicly available?: NO - Follows the same availability rules as IAs from the Commission

Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?: NO

Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?: YES - Data and calculations are directly visible in the model.

Intellectual property rights

Licence type: Non-Free Software licence

application to the impact assessment

Please note that in the annex 4 of the impact assessment report, the general description of the model (available in MIDAS) has to be complemented with the specific information on how the model has been applied in the impact assessment.

See Better Regulation Toolbox, tool #11 Format of the impact assessment report).