CENTURY
Source: Commission modelling inventory and knowledge management system (MIDAS)
Date of Report Generation: Mon Apr 22 2024
Dissemination: Public
© European Union, 2024
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Overview
Acronym
CENTURY
Full title
CENTURY agroecosystem dynamic model
Main purpose
A biogeochemistry ecosystem model used to assess the impact of climate, land use and management practice changes on C budget of the EU agricultural soils.
Summary
CENTURY is a process-based model designed to simulate Carbon (C), Nitrogen (N), Phosphorous (P) and Sulphur (S) dynamics in natural or cultivated systems, using a monthly time step. The model was originally developed in the late ’80s by Colorado State University and it is, currently, one of the most widely used soil biogeochemistry models.
In the JRC.D.3 model framework, CENTURY is running at a resolution of 1 km2 in the agricultural soils of the EU, incorporating the most recently available pan-European datasets. The main purpose is to quantify the current soil organic carbon (SOC) stock and its change under different scenarios, although many ecosystem outputs (eg. soil respiration, plant productivity, etc.) can also be retrieved.
A major benefit of CENTURY is that it can incorporate the effects of policy scenarios based on land-use changes and support practices. The impact of the Good Agricultural and Environmental Condition (GAEC) requirements of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the EU’s guidelines for soil protection can be assessed under land management and support practices.
Model categories
Environment
Model keywords
climate changeland usesoil organic carboncrop management
Model homepage
Ownership and Licence
Ownership
Third-party ownership (commercial companies, Member States, other organisations, …)
Ownership details
Licence type
Non-Free Software licence
The license has one or more of the following restrictions: it prohibits creation of derivative works; it prohibits commercial use; it obliges to share the licensed or derivative works on the same conditions.
Details
Structure and approach
CENTURY is a typical soil organic carbon (SOC) compartment model based on first order decay: the soil organic matter sub-model includes three SOC pools (active, slow and passive), along with two fresh residue pools (structural and metabolic), each with a different turnover rate. Soil temperature and moisture, soil texture and cultivation practices have different effects on these rates. The model is also able to simulate the water balance, using a weekly time step, and a suite of simple plant growth models are included to simulate C, N, P and S dynamics of crops, grasses and trees.
In our model framework, CENTURY is running at a resolution of 1 km2 in the agricultural soils of the EU, incorporating the most recently available pan-European datasets. The model can also be implemented with the soil erosion component. A daily time-step version of the model (DayCent) is recently running using the same JRC-D.3 model framework inputs.
The CENTURY model was spin-up through a series of management sequences encompassing the main agricultural technological stages of the last 2,000 years, until the actual management representing the business as usual scenario. A validation against the Land Use and Coverage Area frame Survey (LUCAS) soil samples was performed to test the model accuracy of the present SOC stock estimations.
Input and parametrization
Key input to CENTURY are:
- spatial distribution of the agricultural land use categories (arable, pasture, rice, permanent crops) (Source: Corine Land Cover 1990-2000-2006-2012)
- soil texture, pH, bulk density, layers definition and depth, hydraulic properties (source: European Soil Database v.2 and LUCAS-derived spatial layers)
- actual gridded climate (Source: European Climate Assessment & Dataset, E-OBS gridded weather dataset)
- climate projections (Source: Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) climatic projections)
- crop area distribution at NUT2 level, livestock density at NUT2, NUT3 level (source: EUROSTAT)
- crop distribution, fertilizer consumption, irrigation, livestock density (Source: FAO)
- soil erosion map (Source: Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation, RUSLE2015 (optional))
Main output
Main outputs are:
- soil organic carbon pools
- biomass pools (grain, root, straw, etc.)
- ecosystem variables (soil respiration, NPP, etc.)
- eroded C
- N fluxes including N2O emissions (DayCent)
Outputs are provided in raster format (geotiff).
Spatial & Temporal extent
The output has the following spatial-temporal resolution and extent:
| Parameter | Description |
|---|---|
| Spatial extent / country coverage | EU Member states 27ALL countries of Europe |
| Spatial resolution | Regular Grid 1km - 10km |
| 1 km grid | |
| Temporal extent | Long-term (more than 15 years) |
| from 1901 to 2100 | |
| Temporal resolution | DaysMonths |
| Monthly time-step (daily time-step in DayCent) |
Quality & Transparency
Quality
Model uncertainties
Models are by definition affected by uncertainties (in input data, input parameters, scenario definitions, etc.). Have the model uncertainties been quantified? Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?
- response
- yes
- details
- By multiple runs with sensitive inputs (soil datasets, climate change scenarios).
- url
Sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity analysis helps identifying the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for the uncertainty in the model responses. Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?
- response
- yes
- details
- Not a fully sensitivity due to the model complexity, but for key inputs.
- url
Have model results been published in peer-reviewed articles?
- response
- yes
- details
- The model has been published in peer-reviewed journals.
- url
Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?
Please note that this does not refer to the cases when model results were validated by stakeholders.
- response
- no
- details
- There has been no formal evaluation of the model by an external panel.
- url
Model validation
Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?
- response
- yes
- details
- Comparison against LUCAS soil data: comparison with meta-analyses.
- url
Transparency
To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?
This may include sources accessible upon subscription and/or payment
- response
- Entirely based on publicly available sources
Is the full model database as such available to external users?
Whether or not it implies a specific procedure or a fee
- response
- no
- details
- European Soil Data Centre (ESDAC).
- url
Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?
Note this excludes IA reports.
- response
- no
- details
Have output datasets been made publicly available?
Note this could also imply a specific procedure or a fee.
- response
- yes
- details
- Outputs are made available through the European Soil Data Centre.
- url
Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?
For instance: Dashboard, interactive interfaces...
- response
- no
- details
- url
Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?
Note this excludes IA reports.
- response
- yes
- details
Is there a dedicated public website where information about the model is provided?
- response
- yes
Is the model code open-source?
- response
- no
- details
Can the code be accessed upon request?
- response
- yes
- details
The model’s policy relevance and intended role in the policy cycle
The model is designed to contribute to the following policy areas
- Agriculture and rural development
- Climate action
- Environment
The model is designed to contribute to the following phases of the policy cycle
- Anticipation – such as foresight and horizon scanning
- Evaluation – such as ex-post evaluation
- Formulation – such as ex-ante Impact Assessments
The model’s potential
The model predicts the effect of different management practices on soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural soils, hence it may be used to compile regional/national C inventories and to support policies for C sequestration in soil.
The agricultural managements simulated by CENTURY consider the mineral and organic fertilizations, irrigation, grazing, crop rotation, tillage and harvest. Therefore, both, past changes (ex-post) on those practices (including land use change) and scenarios analysis (ex-ante) can be assessed by model runs.
Previous use of the model in ex-ante impact assessments of the European Commission
Use of the model in ex-ante impact assessments since July 2017.
2018SWD/2018/301 final
Impact assessment accompanying the document Proposal for a Communication: on modernising and simplifying the common agricultural policy
- Lead by
- AGRI
- Run by
- European Commission
- Contribution role
- baseline and assessment of policy options
- Contribution details
The model helped to assess the following impacts:
- Emission of greenhouse gases
- Ability to adapt to climate change
- Acidification, contamination or salinity of soil, and soil erosion rates