Annex 4 analytical methods

model description

general description

acronym: AnaFgas

name: Analysis of Fluorinated greenhouse gases

main purpose: AnaFgas calculates demand and emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases (F-gases) in the EU27+UK in the period of 2000 to 2050, based on a bottom-up stock model. An attached cost module allows quantification of related cost to the operators of equipment relying on F-gases or their alternatives.

homepage: —

Developer and its nature

ownership: EU ownership (European Commission)

ownership additional info: Owned by European Union

is the model code open-source?: NO

Model structure and approach with any key assumptions, limitations and simplifications

details on model structure and approach

AnaFgas derives quantities of F-gases used and emitted based on stock models of equipment in the EU27 and, optionally, the EU27+UK. The output of the model consists of two metrics, demand and emissions, that are calculated annually for the years between 2000 and 2050.

Demand is the sum of quantities of F-gases used in the initial first filling of equipment and the re-filling in the servicing of equipment during the lifetime. Emissions are the sum of emissions of F-gases during the lifetime of equipment (lifetime emissions) and F-gases that are released to the atmosphere during disposal of old equipment (disposal emissions).

To derive these quantities, the model is supplied with detailed annual stock data (mostly based on annual sales, together with disposal of equipment after a technology-specific lifetime). Sector-specific charge sizes allow for a calculation of yearly F-gas quantities, needed to supply all new and existing equipment (demand), while sector-specific emission rates allow for a calculation of yearly F-gas emissions, occurring from the use of equipment and its disposal (emissions).

AnaFgas calculates demand and emissions individually for 33 different F-gases and 12 different blends, including saturated and unsaturated HFCs, PFCs and SF6. F-gases enter the model by assumptions regarding the market share/penetration for each F-gas or blend in new equipment, for each year. F-gases in blends are individually accounted for in the calculation of demand and emissions.

For the projections of activity data including charges and F-gas split, and emission factors until 2050, AnaFgas generally distinguishes between three different time periods:

Near past (5-10 years) is calculated by adjusting the stock model using data reported under Article 19 of the F-gas Regulation (reporting on supply of F-gases) and the National Inventory Reports (NIRs) submitted by the EU under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, reporting on emissions and partially on first fill quantities). It must be noted, however, that the reported data is not equivalent to the modelled metrics. Under the F-gas Regulation, supply of F-gases is reported, which does not directly translate to demand. Further, the NIRs only contain data based on estimates that are not frequently changed to reflect market developments. Thus, deviations between the reported and modelled data are to be expected.
Near future (5-10 years) is modelled on known policies and measures, technological changes, substitution patterns and expected changes in use patterns.
Distant future (until 2050) is based on a continuation of trends observed, external projections of driving forces such as GDP and population and follows a business-as-usual trend as the model does not consider changes in technologies which are likely to happen within such a long timeframe.

In the model structure of AnaFgas, it is assumed that emissions from leakage during a year are replaced in the same year, irrespective of the age of the equipment. In reality, it can be assumed that leakage rates increase over the course of the lifetime of equipment. AnaFgas uses the average leakage rate over the entire lifetime of equipment for each year. This can lead to deviations from observed emissions for specific years but should even out when looking at longer time periods.

For projections in the distant future, results are necessarily uncertain, since novel developments in technology or other areas cannot be foreseen for such an extended time period.

The AnaFgas cost module is based on model installations per sector and respective assumptions investment and operating expenditures for available options of used F-gases or F-gas alternatives. Specific cost at model installation level can be recalculated into total sectoral cost in the EU27+UK AnaFgas scope by means of AnaFgas data on equipment stocks.

model inputs

Key inputs used for the model.

Lifetime emission rates
Disposal emission rates
Sales of equipment
Disposal of equipment
Market penetration rate of F-gases and blends in new equipment
Prices for F-gases and their alternatives
Investment cost for model installations
Operating cost for model installations (energy and servicing)

model outputs

Key outputs produced by the model.

Yearly demand for 33 different F-gases in the EU27/EU27+UK from 2000 to 2050
Yearly emissions of 33 different F-gases in the EU27/EU27+UK from 2000 to 2050
Equipment operators’ total expenditures under different scenarios / policy options

Intended field of application

policy role

AnaFgas is used to estimate emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases from their use in the EU under different scenarios, e.g. baseline and counterfactual. This allows to evaluate the environmental effect of policy measures ex-post and assess the potential impact of policy measures ex-ante.

In the past, the model was used to evaluate Regulation (EC) No 842/2006 on F-gases and assess the impact of further measures that resulted in Regulation (EU) No 517/2014. It is currently used to evaluate Regulation (EU) No 517/2014 and assess the impact of further measures that will result in a new F-gas Regulation.

policy areas

Climate action

Model transparency and quality assurance

Are uncertainties accounted for in your simulations?: NO - The model is based on market fluctuations/decisions, which are highly volatile. Quantification of uncertainties cannot be properly conducted.

Has the model undergone sensitivity analysis?: NO - Too demanding.

Has the model been published in peer review articles?: NO

Has the model formally undergone scientific review by a panel of international experts?: NO

Has model validation been done? Have model predictions been confronted with observed data (ex-post)?: YES - Demand has been compared to total supply reported under the F-gas Regulation and emissions have been compared to data on emissions reported under UNFCCC.

To what extent do input data come from publicly available sources?: Based on both publicly available and restricted-access sources

Is the full model database as such available to external users?: NO - Input data are based on both publicly available and restricted-access sources. The full model database as such is not available to external users.

Have model results been presented in publicly available reports?: NO

Have output datasets been made publicly available?: YES - Output datasets have been made publicly available.

Is there any user friendly interface presenting model results that is accessible to the public?: NO

Has the model been documented in a publicly available dedicated report or a manual?: NO - An older version of the model was described in the IA report but no additional dedicated reports or manuals were published.

Intellectual property rights

Licence type: No information available

application to the impact assessment

Please note that in the annex 4 of the impact assessment report, the general description of the model (available in MIDAS) has to be complemented with the specific information on how the model has been applied in the impact assessment.

See Better Regulation Toolbox, tool #11 Format of the impact assessment report).